MikeFoley
2.3K posts
MikeFoley
@MikeFoley781
Agribusiness, Leadership, Morality, and Humanity. Not necessarily in that order.
United States Katılım Aralık 2024
905 Takip Edilen257 Takipçiler
The idea that farmers can “switch crops overnight” because nitrogen is expensive is simply wrong.
Agriculture is not a conveyor belt.
Rotation, pre-bought inputs, and agronomy matter.
The real adjustment is gradual, my guess:
– a few % less nitrogen
– small shifts from corn to soy/pulses
In 2021, with a similar #nitrogen spike, US #corn area actually INCREASED ~3% YoY. It did drop in 2023 after two year of elevated prices.
Reality is slower and less dramatic.
#oatt #soybeans
Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡@shanaka86
Right now, in barns and equipment sheds across the American Midwest, farmers are making the most consequential decision of this war. Not generals. Not senators. Farmers. At $683 per ton urea, corn economics have collapsed. Nitrogen is the single largest input cost for corn production. At pre-war prices a farmer could justify 180 pounds per acre and expect a margin. At $683 the math breaks. Soybeans fix their own nitrogen from the atmosphere through root bacteria. They do not need the molecule trapped behind the Strait of Hormuz. The seed decision is being made this week across roughly 90 million acres of American cropland. Once the planter rolls into the field, the choice is irreversible. Corn seed in the ground stays corn. Soy seed stays soy. The acreage allocation locks in. USDA Prospective Plantings reports March 31. That report will tell the world how American agriculture responded to the Hormuz blockade. But the decisions it captures are being made now, in conversations between farmers and agronomists and seed dealers who are looking at nitrogen prices and making the rational economic choice: plant the crop that does not need the input you cannot afford. Every acre that shifts from corn to soybeans tightens the corn balance sheet for the rest of the year. Corn feeds livestock. Corn feeds ethanol. The Renewable Fuel Standard mandates 15 billion gallons of corn ethanol annually, consuming roughly 43 percent of the US corn crop regardless of price. That demand is inelastic. If acres shift and production falls while the mandate holds, corn prices spike. Feed costs spike. The protein cascade reverses. The US cattle herd sits at 86.2 million head, a 75-year low. Poultry and pork margins that were benefiting from cheap feed compress when corn crosses $5 per bushel. This is how a naval blockade 7,000 miles from Iowa reaches the American grocery shelf. Not through oil. Not through shipping. Through nitrogen. The farmer cannot afford the molecule. The molecule cannot transit the strait. The farmer plants soy instead. The corn supply tightens. The ethanol mandate consumes its fixed share. The remaining corn reprices. The feed reprices. The meat reprices. The grocery bill reprices. The decision is not political. It is arithmetic performed on a kitchen table by a person who needs to plant in three weeks and cannot wait for a ceasefire, an escort convoy, or an insurance normalisation that the Red Sea precedent says takes years. The deepest penetrator in the American arsenal cannot reach a sealed Iranian doctrinal packet. But the fertiliser price it failed to resolve is reaching every planting decision on 90 million acres of the most productive farmland on Earth. The war’s most irreversible consequence is not happening in a bunker. It is happening in a barn. And by the time USDA publishes the data on March 31, the seeds will already be in the ground. Full analysis in the link. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…
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@AngelaBelcamino One could make the argument he's one of the few Senators at all with ommon sense.
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Am I wrong, or is John Fetterman the only Democrat left with common sense?
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@Farmer9910 @KevinSJohnson80 If you're gonna do your own, sure. No retailer will run a $20k floater for long.
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@MikeFoley781 @KevinSJohnson80 Wrong. Find a cheap floater for 20K. It will serve you well
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I remember a time when you could spread lime for $20 a ton thats with the spreading fee included. Today it cost $70. Absolutely outrageous.
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@SecretaryWright @POTUS SOOOO....
You know what this means for domestic prices too, right...
Dude are people this dumb really?
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Thanks to @POTUS, the United States is the world’s top oil and natural gas producer. We are also the largest natural gas exporter and a top oil exporter. To be clear, the Trump administration has no plan to implement restrictions on oil and gas exports.
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@TRFyeomanfarmer With a little trial and error if you put a choke valve on the product suction line you could control the rate/ratio...
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@BohuslavskaKate One could make the argument that a better result for the US in the end would be MORE MISSLES for Ukraine and less for Iran. Wouldn't hurt my feelings if all this tool was left with was sticks and rocks, TBH.
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Hegseth: "We're still dealing with the environment Joe Biden created—depleting our stockpiles and sending them to Ukraine instead of our own military. Every time we face a challenge, it traces back to 'Well, sent it to Ukraine.'"
It looks like they’re just going to blame Ukraine whenever anything goes wrong now, doesn’t it? It’s depressing to watch because while this administration will eventually leave office, a segment of Americans will keep hating Ukraine without even remembering why.
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@FreightAlley Anecdotally, there sure seems to be as many, if not more, trucks on our USHWY out here right now than in the past 6-12 months...
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Trucking is always a leading indicator.
People are so convinced that spiking oil is going to collapse the US economy, without realing that oil prices were much higher 3 years ago.
Mike Clark@CWP618
@FreightAlley Would you consider this a lagging or coincidental indicator? Certainly not leading…
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@staceydash Almost enough to get me over on your OF train - I just don't know what to expect...
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Sometimes the best thing you can do is sit down, and enjoy where you are 💆 ✝️
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@BeingJWood Most people that legally can vote don't want to, really. Why would an illegal? I think its a boogeyman case.
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Serious question:
Why would a non-citizen vote?
What’s their motivation?
Their rationale?
I can’t come up with anything.
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@BeingJWood That's been my contention all along. I can't imagine an illegal going to vote, for any reason, unless someone is literally stuffing $1000 cash in his pocket to do so.
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President Trump: "You better do something about immigration. And you better do something about energy, or you won't have a Europe."
People can call him what they want.
But they can't call him wrong.
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@FreightAlley Those industries like ours that rely on energy, like diesel, to operate and cannot pass along the increased costs in things like "fuel surcharges" or " Trump Fees" are failing to see your optimism.
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This is a blow to the global economy, but paradoxically, but good for domestic industrial and material sectors due to our energy moat.
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal
🇮🇷🇺🇸🇨🇳 The Strait of Hormuz closure looks like a global crisis, but the U.S. isn't really the one getting crushed. Prices go up, sure. But the U.S. only uses 20% of global oil and it's a net exporter. So U.S. oil companies are making serious money instead. We're talking up to $63B in extra revenue if prices stay high. ExxonMobil, Chevron, Devon, ConocoPhillips are all eating. Defense stocks popped instantly. Lockheed, Northrop, RTX jumped 4-6% in a day. That's $25-30B added just like that. U.S. oil firms raised $3.5B this month alone. Biggest fundraising in 6+ years. Meanwhile China imports 70% of its oil. Every price spike hits them way harder. So why would Trump rush to fix something when others are feeling it more? Now he's asking countries to help reopen Hormuz, but they need it way more than the U.S. does anyway. That's the leverage. Source: William Spaniel YT, Bloomberg, Seeking Alpha, European Business Magazine
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@RepDonBacon @AWRHawkins Funny how ignorant the average American has become on foreign policy in the last decade.
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@AWRHawkins And you’re plain ignorant. Being terrible to allies is stupid.
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Nebraska, this is your @RepDonBacon, who is apparently 'NATO First' rather than 'America First'
Breitbart News@BreitbartNews
Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE) says if President Trump attempts to withdraw the U.S. from NATO, there will be a GOP “civil war.” "Most of us would find that totally unacceptable. And I’m not alone." Imagine caring more about NATO than MAGA. 🤦
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@Mollyploofkins Well that's reassuring for the guy to be responsible so I don't get blown up by a terrorist.
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Markwayne Mullin: I'm not gonna be the smartest guy in any room I walk into.
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@RealJamesWoods Everyone has to believe in something. I believe in the Toothfairy and Santa Claus, so I feel like you and I just became best friends.
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I believe if only American citizens voted in America, the Democrat Party would cease to exist.
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@highbrow_nobrow Its sad how some of these guys could have promising futures in politics if they weren't such asshats.
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GOP Senator insults UK military: "The Royal Navy used to be a great force for good in the world. Now, they are a rust bucket. They should be showing up to support this."
FC: Since 9/11, the UK has suffered 6,000+ casualties fighting alongside the US.
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Ossoff: Was it the assessment of the intelligence community that there was an imminent nuclear threat posed by the Iranian regime?
Gabbard: The only person who can determine what is and is not an imminent threat is the president. It is not the intelligence community's responsibility to determine what is and is not an imminent threat.
Ossoff: It is precisely your responsibility. This is the worldwide threats hearing where, as you noted in your opening testimony quote, you represent the ic's assessment of threats.
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@WallStreetApes And there's no chance whatsoever he's bending honesty a little to further his agenda, right?
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My jaw dropped listening to this
Homeland Security Advisor Stephen Miller says ICE asked the illegals they’ve detained if they were receiving Medicaid. HALF SAID THEY HAD BEEN SIGNED UP
The illegals that don’t have it say they just go to hospitals and it’s always 100% free
“What we found since President Trump came into office is that the Democrats have set up a system to funnel hundreds of billions and ultimately trillions of dollars to migrants that are in our country, oftentimes from places like Somalia.
So as an example, ICE recently asked a group of illegal immigrants that were in detention, whether or not they were receiving Medicaid. Half of them raised their hands and volunteered that they were on Medicaid. Just volunteered that these aren't the ones who are hiding it
They also ask legal aliens how they pay their medical bills, and they said that if they don't have Medicaid, they go to hospitals, they get free care there, and they bill it to the taxpayers. So they aren't paying for any of their own healthcare in this country.
— We've seen this over and over and over again.“
Democrats need to go to prison
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How do you feel about lamb aka land salmon?
With the price of beef escalating the way it is, this lady makes a really good pitch for sheep/lamb.
Sheep can feed your family faster, easier and cheaper than any other livestock.
They don't need expensive grain.
They do just fine on grass and weeds.
Lamb can be eaten at 6 months. Cows take 1.5 years.
Twice the offspring as cows.
Easier to manage.
Source: bigskyranchess (IG)
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