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Mr E Research
5.7K posts
Mr E Research
@MisterEResearch
Not Financial Advice
United States Katılım Ağustos 2018
3.3K Takip Edilen2.4K Takipçiler
Goldman tries to quantify the net effect of AI both substituting for and augmenting U.S. employment.
Their conclusion: AI substitution in occupations like phone operations and insurance claims administration have reduced monthly payroll gains by around -25K and raised the unemployment rate by 0.16 pp over the past year. AI augmentation in occupations including medicine and education have added +9K to monthly payrolls and lowered the unemployment rate by 0.06 pp. This nets out to a slight -16K drag on payrolls and an increase in the unemployment rate by 0.1 pp.
Caveat: This exercise doesn't account for the possible benefit from either construction hiring due to data-center buildout or AI-driven productivity/income gains.
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@alphaticaio @PrognosticApex Can I send you a dm? I want to show you my project.
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"Low volume rallies are suspicious."
No they're not. We tested it.
22 years of SPY and QQQ data. Every day where volume dropped below 50% of the 50-day average — the quietest of the quiet. 268 episodes.
Forward 10-day win rate:
SPY: 70.6%
QQQ: 68.2%
Forward 20-day win rate:
SPY: 65.4%
QQQ: 69.7%
7 out of 10 low-volume days, the market was higher two weeks later.
Is the edge better than just being long? No — baseline win rate is 62%, so the difference isn't statistically significant (p = 0.21). But the claim isn't that low volume is bullish. The claim is that "low volume is suspicious" and bearish.
The data says the opposite. Low volume days go up at a slightly higher rate than normal days, not lower.
The logic is simple:
If volume is low and price isn't dropping, sellers aren't showing up. That's not a fake rally. That's a market with no supply. Path of least resistance = up.
"35M in volume today. DEAD."
Dead volume, alive market. That's what 22 years of data shows.
$SPY $QQQ
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@alphaticaio @PrognosticApex You earned my follow. I turned on notifications too. Looking forward to your analysis.
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@MisterEResearch @PrognosticApex We will post them tomorrow morning. We didn’t want to overwhelm the novice reader. But we will follow-up with it tomorrow morning.
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@alphaticaio @PrognosticApex I'm dying to know your results.
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@alphaticaio @PrognosticApex This is an important caveat. So overall, little directional alpha. Did you test in high vix vs low vix conditions?
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Great question. We tested exactly this.
SPY's baseline 10-day win rate across all 5,658 trading days since 2003 is 62.0%. The market does go up over time.
Low volume days: 70.6%.
So you're right to flag the bias. When we ran a two-sample test comparing low-volume days against all other days:
• Difference in mean 10d return: +0.32%
• Welch's t-test: p = 0.21
• Bootstrap (10,000 iterations): 95% CI includes zero
• Mann-Whitney U: p = 0.12
Not statistically significant. Low volume days are not meaningfully better than any random day.
But that's the point of the post. The claim on FinTwit isn't "low volume is better than average," it's "low volume is bearish" and "low volume rallies are suspicious." The data shows low volume days have a *higher* win rate than baseline (70.6% vs 62.0%), even if the excess isn't statistically significant.
So at worst, low volume days perform the same as any other day. At best, slightly better. Either way not bearish.
$SPY $QQQ
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@TheMaverickWS Probably a lot of people thought the same after Vietnam
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After the Iraq war debacle, I thought we will never be duped into foreign wars again. I stand corrected. Never underestimate the stupidity of humans.
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The situation with AI right now is kind of like when you got your first smartphone or laptop. There was so much potential but it took you years or decades to figure out how to actually use it effectively.
Spokane, WA 🇺🇸 English
Mr E Research retweetledi
فراموش نکنید که به دنیا یادآوری کنید که رژیم در ماههای اخیر بیش از ۴۰ هزار نفر را به قتل رسانده است. تنها جرم آنها اعتراض برای آزادی بود.
فارسی
Mr E Research retweetledi
We didn't forget how this started, and don't worry, Hamas will be exterminated.
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal
Gaza is being forgotten 💔
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Reasons why the war won't end without a full scale invasion:
1. Trump won't accept a solution where the existing regime remains in power.
2. The existing regime will not relinquish power while they are alive.
3. The regime is too decentralized to destroy with airstrikes alone.
Result: invading or suffocating the entire nation using medieval siege-like tactics until it is too physically weak from starvation or dehydration to resist or negotiate.
Spokane, WA 🇺🇸 English
He can just delay another day though. How long can they force a human shield to stand in the desert?
Autism Capital 🧩@AutismCapital
If this is true it's a very interesting move to call Trump's bluff. Iran is trying to make the cost of his decision so morally high that it becomes a line that if he crosses there's no coming back from. i.e. "Are you prepared to directly kill all the youth?" It's diabolical.
Spokane, WA 🇺🇸 English
@AutismCapital He can just delay another day though. How long can they force a human shield to stand in the desert?
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If this is true it's a very interesting move to call Trump's bluff. Iran is trying to make the cost of his decision so morally high that it becomes a line that if he crosses there's no coming back from. i.e. "Are you prepared to directly kill all the youth?" It's diabolical.
The Hormuz Letter@HormuzLetter
BREAKING: Iran is organizing nationwide human chains of youth, athletes, and artists at every power plant in the country at 2 PM Tehran time tomorrow, per Iran's Ministry of Sports and Youth. The campaign is named "Human Chain of Iranian Youth for a Bright Future." Its slogan: "attacking public infrastructure is a war crime." International signage will be displayed for global media coverage. At least 2,000 NGO members are confirmed. The chains form 13 hours before Trump's 8 PM ET strike deadline. Iran is gathering civilians at the exact infrastructure the US has threatened, and televising it to the world.
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Mr E Research retweetledi
Heard on the street: Tech companies are trying to fast track their IPO's to dump on moronic mom and pop investors before the economy crashes
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@GaaOptions Market makers are almost always delta neutral. That's there job. They sell puts, they short stock to hedge. They never lose.
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Notice how little engagement my bullish $SPY posts are getting.
What does that tell you about the masses?
You think MM will allow majority to win?
GAA Options@GaaOptions
Everyone on your feed is bearish. This will not end well. $SPY 📈
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@GaaOptions @tyutchev Every trade has a counterparty. There are never more buyers than sellers. Twitter is a bubble.
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@INVESTMENTSHULK They're going to get you first. I always say thank you to my agents.
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Mr E Research retweetledi
You will blow up a lot of people’s accounts by saying this, stop.
941@level941
War ends 8pm ET. Tuesday. Long everything.
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Iran will not stop until every single one of their decentralized command zones is systematically dismantled. Even then there will be Iranians hiding in the desert waiting like the Japanese after WWII. Theocratic regimes do not surrender. The only thing crazier than a religious person is a group of religious people.
Spokane, WA 🇺🇸 English
@TradingThomas3 Also I don't want to be that guy but weird 😉
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If we don’t see risk off day tomorrow then something wierd is happening.
Faytuks News@Faytuks
"Some U.S. officials say there is too large a gap to narrow between the U.S. and Iranian positions before Trump’s 8 p.m. Tuesday deadline... Trump has privately been less hopeful that Iran will make a deal" -WSJ He is expected to issue final orders for strikes Tuesday evening
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