Mr. MoneyMaker

🦔New Bloomberg reporting reveals SoftBank has committed roughly $60 billion to OpenAI, and internal advisors who questioned the size of the bet say founder Masayoshi Son shut them down. Former SoftBank insider Habib Imam described the position as "a bet on a worldview about AGI" and added "you can't hedge a worldview." To fund the commitment, SoftBank sold its remaining Nvidia stake, took out a $40 billion bridge facility, and layered a margin loan on top, all costing around 8% interest. SoftBank's last bet of this scale was WeWork, which imploded in 2019. Insiders also told Bloomberg they worry OpenAI is losing technical ground to Anthropic. My Take Son shut down internal disagreement on WeWork before that one collapsed, and the Bloomberg piece describes the same dynamic playing out on a position 15 times larger. Son built his career on contrarian bets that worked, and the Alibaba return covered a lot of subsequent mistakes. The OpenAI position cannot get covered the same way, because no future windfall fits inside the same fund timeline. The way this is financed is certainly not great in my eyes. SoftBank borrowed against its OpenAI shares to buy more OpenAI shares, paying 8% interest on a private asset with no public price discovery and no short sellers to test the valuation. That works while OpenAI keeps marking up at each private round, and collapses fast if the next round comes in flat. OpenAI's projected $14 billion loss in 2026, the token economics pressure on enterprise customers, and the IPO complications I have written about all week are the kind of catalysts that test private valuations. SoftBank does not need OpenAI to fail. SoftBank just needs the next round to disappoint, and the margin numbers get ugly. Hedgie🤗 bloomberg.com/news/features/…

Sharing here because it’s hard to share these milestones with people in my life. Officially crossed the $1M mark today 🥳😁✌🏻✌🏻 After not paying much attention Jan - April, I rotated into the correct positions. Thank you!! @DeepValueBagger @Gubloinvestor @aleabitoreddit

NEW TRADE: ALL IN $HLIT. Currently -2% lower than my own entry btw. They make broadband software for companies like Comcast, Charter, etc. I spent 2 hours researching the ticker here on 𝕏 and think it could be a good one. THESIS: Huge pull-forward demand to future-proof for an agentic AI world. Similar to $NOK but for broadband networks. Citrini shouted it out yesterday after hours x.com/citrini/status… which caused the +15% jump Agentic AI usage patterns will look quite different than previous networking demands (mostly one-way like video). So there's a huge push to modernize quickly. Their CableOS software is the easiest way to do it. The company is legit: - 98% market share - Revenue is up 87% YoY, 43% QoQ - 52% gross margins - Guidance raised to $475M - $495M - $43M in stock repurchases - Lots of insider, hedge fund, and robinhood buying - Stock price peaked at $157.50 back in 2000 🤯 They also sold their legacy low growth video business to focus on the high-margin software. Good focus. Catalyst is... price momentum honestly. Similar to $BAND over the last few weeks. Crossing fingers its the start of a multi-day run. I hate chasing. NGL I broke this rule here. Had to listen to my gut. Also worth experimenting with my own rules. Different markets demand different rules and not chasing this year has left me missing several good plays. We'll see how good my gut still is. My doctor says its healthy. --- As a reminder: this is my challenge account where I restarted with $35k to go all-in swing trading 1 stock at a time to $10M again. Now at $61k. As always, please do your own research with your own independent thinking and risk tolerance and decide your own buys and sells. (sorry for the delay, was dealing with a power outage and had to run to a cafe)