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Moon of the New Year
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Moon of the New Year retweetledi
@Simon__Grimm @alexolegimas Takes me about 30 seconds to go from a page being 100% ai generated to 100% human though
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Pangram is one of the most pro-social, AI-centered technologies of the past year and a great example of defensive acceleration.
If you don't use the plugin, do. It automatically scans Twitter and LinkedIn feeds, see below. It also flags AI-assisted Substack posts.
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is google hiding its own mythos class models? gemini doesn't seem like it could solve even one of them
MTS@MTSlive
SITUATION DETECTED: Google DeepMind’s AI agent autonomously solved 9 of 353 open Erdos problems in mathematics, at a cost of a few hundred dollars per problem.
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@robinhanson no the usual argument is evolution made you worry because it made you die less. not suffer less
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The usual argument is that if you suffer more via worry, you lower the chances of suffering in other ways.
s. ceren (FEMMEPATH)@turk1shprincess
This concept changed my brain chemistry entirely. Every time I’m anxious I just keep repeating “don’t suffer twice” cuz literally why the fuck would I do that
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Cats who drink filtered water live longer.
Cats who drank primarily filtered water had 87% lower odds of developing kidney disease. Tap water led to 3.4x higher risk.
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In 2002, Ray Kurzweil and Mitchell Kapor made a bet on whether the Turing Test would be passed by 2029.
To determine the winner, they devised detailed terms, including the appointment of a committee to administer an actual exam, with a set of judges and human foils.
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Moon of the New Year retweetledi
Still probably the best podcast episode ever made.
Dwarkesh Patel@dwarkesh_sp
How easily would it be for a future superintelligence to persuade humans to do its bidding? The most persuasive humans give us a lower bound. The best human politicians have been able to convince huge numbers of smart and shrewd people that they're on their side, even if their real allegiance is diametrically opposed.
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@posta_octavian If russia ever joins it has to Reform internally which will take decades but might be possible, looking at how it was possible with eastern Europe. Yes even hungary etc... Long and tedious process for sure, but eventually... why not?
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Germany unified without the largest German nation at the time, Austria. There's a good reason for that; it included too many non-Germans, was simply too large and also a rival to Prussia. It was easier without them.
Europe will simply unify without Russia and that'll be that.
Adler🇨🇿@AAdlerrrrrrrr
I love how Eurofederals always leave out Russia (the largest European nation) if only 1% of them used their brains they would know that Russia is something you want in the European Federation because of all the resources Russia has.
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Someone should make free versions of the latest protein design SaaS tools just to troll the market. Open source chaotic good is long overdue.
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@ariaurelium The paper specifically says "we do not seek to undermine the interests or ingenuity of the Chinese people"...
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AI strategies everywhere hinge on widely available American frontier AI. Post-Mythos, amid compute crunches, security concerns and distillation crackdowns, that paradigm is under threat.
Today, I argue the era of widespread access to frontier AI is almost over.
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asians have it too though. what do we make of that? asians had alcohol and those with less tolerance outcompeted the others until it was abandoned?
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@robinhanson culture? civics? institutions? protocols? morals?
Català
We humans are working to make artificial descendants. It is quite telling that we use the word "intelligence" to describe them, & mainly evaluate them in terms of how well they live up to that label. But to really function as worthy descendants, they'll need LOTS more.
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@boom_tentpeg wow: A protective genetic marker ADH2 occurs in approximately 30% of Jewish individuals, which may contribute to lower rates of alcohol abuse. psychiatryonline.org/doi/full/10.11…
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In all seriousness, Slavs are at a severe genetic disadvantage compared to Jews when it comes to alcohol. Jews descend from the oldest known agricultural population in the world. Slavs adopted settled farming comparatively later. This has consequences for alcohol metabolism.
Kyle Orton@KyleWOrton
#Russia: in a village not far from Moscow in 2008, a local was asked why the population was so antisemitic: "It is because the Jews have a secret vegetable they eat so they don’t become alcoholics like the rest of us. And they refuse to share that vegetable with anyone else."
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@giansegato what's the Epoch ECI for the new checkpoint? and also METR time horizons used new or old one?
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just to be clear about what these checkpoints represent in this chart:
Mythos (new) is the version corresponding to the Glasswing launch. Mythos (early) is an earlier, only partially-trained version
these latest results are about the actual Mythos Preview, the model as it was when we launched Glasswing last month
Lisan al Gaib@scaling01
The new version completely smashes GPT-5.5 and the previous Mythos version. Before Mythos Preview completed the cyber range 3 out of 10 times. The new version completed it 6 out of 10 times and is much more efficient!
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In most rich countries, most people say they want children, yet fertility keeps falling. @PikaGoldin's answer in a 2025 NBER WP isn't that women now prefer careers over kids.
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If Anthropic has a trillion dollar valuation while Google has a $4.5 trillion valuation, there are only two conclusions to be drawn
Either Anthropic is incredibly overpriced or Google is incredibly underpriced. The trick is to figure out which one is right
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@Andercot entropy makes the forward arrow in time so why wouldn't it?
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Interesting that there is such a thing as "anti-entropic force" and it is basically "whatever intelligent life is trying to do" and that this is somehow fundamentally connected to the forwards arrow of time.
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