Joshua Morgan

The reason why $FUTU and $TIGR has traded so extremely weak is now known to all, in China a lot of people know before you know

$FUTU if it doesnt shape up from here.....

This is a multi-perspective analysis to add confluence and explain why I see Bitcoin moving higher after we bottomed in recent months. Starting with the trend: The trend on the macro has been bullish since we tested the lows on February 23 at 63k. That was our first higher low in the new bullish structure. We then formed a second higher low at 65k, with the next expected higher low sitting in the 69k–71k zone. Wyckoff perspective: After the selling climax at 63k, we had our automatic rally up to 74k which tapped macro resistance and pushed us back down to around 65k. From there, we began building a liquidity range by sweeping highs and lows. After the secondary test, we swept 74k again, followed by another sweep of the lows at 65k (our secondary test in Phase B). This also aligned with the second higher low in the trend. Since then we’ve been building the final points of the support as the price goes up but doesn’t fall back down, and now we are now hovering above both the preliminary support and the automatic rally. In theory, as long as 74k holds and we continue building this staircase pattern, we can see an explosive move to the upside at any moment. Wall Street Cheat Sheet perspective: The current price action fits the Wall Street Cheat Sheet pattern almost perfectly. Many charts and fractals are copying what happened in December, with people calling this a fake move or bull trap. What they don’t realize is that they are contributing to the exact psychology needed for the market to move higher. As it chops around, it builds frustration and FOMO. Once we break out aggressively to the upside (aligning with both Wyckoff and the Cheat Sheet), those same people will feel they’re missing out and rush in to buy at any price. That’s when we’ll likely see a larger correction back to the 69k–71k zone. This pullback would hold the macro bullish trend and reset sentiment. Timeline perspective: A major pivot is likely around May 10–15 around with the new FED Chair announcement. This could spark euphoria as people anticipate the new FED will cut rates and act dovishly, adding to the buying pressure. Once everyone has bought expecting the new FED to push markets higher, we can get a healthy reality-check correction. Only then should the summer rally begin, extending into Q3 or even better Q4, with Bitcoin reaching 108k–116k — or making a new all time high while ETH and altcoins outperform in the second half of the year.

Every major correction on this chart started the same way. The Weekly 9 EMA crossed below the 21 EMA. 2022 Bear Market • Drop: -27% Market rallied… Then another correction • -10% Market rallied harder... Fast forward to now: Tariff Panic • Drop: -21% We rallied again… And the same weekly bearish cross just printed. If the pattern repeats, the next move could be roughly another -13% correction. One green day doesn’t change the weekly structure. Weekly charts > Daily charts.

Just took a position in $Path as they announced a new $500 million stock repurchase, have around 25% of shares being shorted, and look to be forming a double bottom.

Bitcoin has been following this plan so far, and it's going well — besides the timeline, because that's not the whole point of this post. It's the structure that matters. After the February low, we needed two more waves to complete the full correction that started in October, a Wave 4 and a Wave 5, finishing the corrective C wave. We got both of them, even without making a new low. As I explained back then, even a retest of the lows was valid. The retest of $63k on February 24th still counts as confirmation of the final leg down. Since then, we’ve bounced back up, starting a new bullish Elliott Wave phase. We have already printed Wave 1 and Wave 2, and we’re currently in a choppy range around $65k and there are still two more waves to the upside, which I believe will spark pretty soon. Once they complete, we will likely teleport quickly to the 90k–96k area. There, we should stay for a few weeks, making a small distribution top. Around the new Fed Chair, we should begin a corrective ABC wave that lasts into the June FOMC. That FOMC meeting could either complete the first bullish corrective Wave C, or it could mark the beginning of the next one (Wave 2) around $71k–$74k, confirming the breakout from the current range before we push even higher this year. I see an 80% chance of making a new ATH this year, with the remaining 20% scenario being a range between 116k and 125k, where ETH and altcoins would start to catch up. P.S. There’s also a small alternative scenario I shared with the group where a deeper pullback in May–June that goes below $74k down to around $55k. That’s why I continue to recommend taking 20–30% off the table around the $90k–$96k area so you can then add half of that position back (say 10–15%) at $74k, and the second half at $55k. Both scenarios are bullish and can lead to a new ATH this year. That said, it would be preferable to see $74k hold as support, especially while the SPX makes a new lower low. If Bitcoin and crypto hold a higher low in the mid-term, that would be the perfect trigger for risk assets to outperform from the liquidity and I strongly believe this will happen because I no longer believe in the traditional 4-year cycle for multiple reasons.

DO NOT, I REPEAT, DO NOT, get caught with your hand in the cookie jar 🫙 It's not time yet... I will let you know when we get the "Bull Trigger" $BTC $BITF - Bitcoin