Craig Roche

1.7K posts

Craig Roche

Craig Roche

@MrCraigRoche

The pseudonym of an author and practical person interested in economics, law, real estate, and tech.

New York City Katılım Aralık 2014
153 Takip Edilen70 Takipçiler
Harry Heymann 🥑
@KelseyTuoc The dirty (not so) secret about these things is that the schools are mostly just evaluating the parents anyways.
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Kelsey Piper
Kelsey Piper@KelseyTuoc·
I don't approve of kindergartens that have a lengthy application process and entrance exam, I think it's a deeply unhealthy pressure to put on young kids. HOWEVER my daughter seems to desire in her soul nothing more than to take kindergarten entrance exams
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Erik Engquist
Erik Engquist@erik_engquist·
In the digital age, there is no reason anyone should have to print an 1,100-page document, let alone one for every tenant in a building, to be mailed first to NYS and then back to tenants. This photo is of an actual substantial-rehabilitation application. therealdeal.com/new-york/2026/…
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Craig Roche
Craig Roche@MrCraigRoche·
@belree__ @EdgyGookie @nypost What are JPMCs policies on internal complaints? I'd imagine that a policy that let someone sue for an internal complaint might might not survive. Also, she's asking for Uber rides as damages, which is a first...
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Nina
Nina@belree__·
@EdgyGookie @nypost Litigation privilege applies only to the statements made during litigation. It does not apply to the statements he made to thrid parties preeceding the suit, which is what they're actually going after.
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New York Post
New York Post@nypost·
JPMorgan exec Lorna Hajdini sues ex-banker Chirayu Rana for defamation over 'sex slave' allegations trib.al/HUqeZGL
New York Post tweet media
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Craig Roche
Craig Roche@MrCraigRoche·
@JohnLeFevre Nomura put all the female IB analysts from Lehman through flower arranging and tea service classes in 08. It did not go well.
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John LeFevre
John LeFevre@JohnLeFevre·
There was a hiring shift on Wall Street in the early 2000s - away from jocks, nephews, and cool kids toward nerds, quants, and DEI-box-checkers. Bring back the soft skills: the show-the-client-a-good-time guys and people I don’t mind sitting next to on an airplane. In an AI world where knowledge is worth $0, only these matter: - Networking & social calibration - Persuasion (sales) - Curiosity (harnessing AI) - Taste & curation - Adaptability - Storytelling - Grit - Athletic proficiency (golf still counts) Also, this image is funny - a dude wearing a double breasted suit, denim shirt, and bad tie knot.
John LeFevre tweet media
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Craig Roche
Craig Roche@MrCraigRoche·
@GamerGeekNerd81 @Jamie_LeFrak @Jefffeldman for sale? change in law? owner went bankrupt? hard to know without specific addresses /history. There's a mostly renovated building across the street from me that got caught up in permit hell, so they might not actually be legal yet.
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🎮GamerGeekNerd🎮
🎮GamerGeekNerd🎮@GamerGeekNerd81·
@MrCraigRoche @Jamie_LeFrak @Jefffeldman Well since the Pandemic there are newly renovated apartments. West Broadway, Bleeker St, Mott, Mulberry. All have empty apartments. All ready to go. So why spend that money post pandemic to leave it empty?
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Craig Roche
Craig Roche@MrCraigRoche·
@GamerGeekNerd81 @Jamie_LeFrak @Jefffeldman Main reason is that you have to pay 100-200k to renovate them due to lead laws and other things, and you can't raise the rent after. Other reason is that you might want to knock down the building and build a new one in 5 years, but can't require the tenants to leave.
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🎮GamerGeekNerd🎮
🎮GamerGeekNerd🎮@GamerGeekNerd81·
@Jamie_LeFrak @Jefffeldman Just to let you know. People say there are no apartments to rent is total 🐂 💩 because I work in Noho/Soho & there are literally empty buildings. They don’t want to rent them so they can claim a loss & a tax right off. Some landlord loophole. I talk to supers & porters.
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Craig Roche
Craig Roche@MrCraigRoche·
@EdgyGookie Depends if you count the bots. There are a lot of purportedly beautiful women eager to facilitate an investment in crypto
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Nicole
Nicole@nicolegelinas·
It is never a good time for a strike, but the fact that New York has already proven that many of our highest-paid people can work from home indefinitely in a crisis puts New York in a stronger position than in any other previous strike. New Jersey stupidly did not take advantage of this -- nytimes.com/2025/05/17/opi… -- but we can!
Nicole@nicolegelinas

Governor Hochul can be the Margaret Thatcher of New York State, if she can hold firm (a big if). You will never fix crazy union costs and rules in New York unless you demonstrate you can stand up to the worst offenders -- the LIRR work-rule overtime featherbedders -- and politically survive.

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Craig Roche
Craig Roche@MrCraigRoche·
@EdgyGookie You are delegate the negotiation of these and other laws to someone whose principles you agree with. E.g in the UK, you only have elections every 5 years, so you can't know in advance what will occur. Ideally they are prevented from doing anything drastic by the Constitution
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EdgyGookie 🇰🇷🇺🇸
EdgyGookie 🇰🇷🇺🇸@EdgyGookie·
Ok but why do all these politicians have “husband” “father” “grandfather” “wife, mom, aunt, dog-mom, mother-to-nine-cats” descriptors in their social media bios? I think every politician should name their most important social issue and compress the idea behind how they want to address it. Make that a requirement for verified politics accounts pls
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Craig Roche
Craig Roche@MrCraigRoche·
@ByrneHobart I know of an entire set of mansions on 10k acres near a company facility with a private air strip that were the summer HQ of a Dow component. The CEO had the mail flown in and out daily and had a plane to go fishing.
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Erik Engquist
Erik Engquist@erik_engquist·
At least 10 people came up to me after this interview and said they really enjoyed Soo Kim. I don't think any of them had heard of him before.
The Real Deal@trdny

Bally's Chairman Soo Kim joined @Erik_Engquist at #TRDForum to discuss how Bally's outmaneuvered better-known rivals to win a New York casino license — and why he says its Bronx bid had the edge. Topics include: • Bally's "lay low" strategy during the casino race • Bally's deal with the Trump Organization • The City Council fight and Mayor Adams' veto • How to solve gambling’s social costs youtube.com/watch?v=MM5i0W…

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Craig Roche
Craig Roche@MrCraigRoche·
@ProfDBernstein The whole point was the kabuki theater of slashing the library budget to encourage private donations then restoring it so the council could get show their independence, get a win and do a photo op. Wonder what the next annual symbolic fight between council and mayor is.
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Craig Roche
Craig Roche@MrCraigRoche·
@ProfDBernstein The calculation that I just did when Princeton announced a similar 'aid' program was that the avg tuition + room and board of those who pay anything was around 48-50k. Top 1% (or less) is paying full freight; everyone else is getting discounts. Perfect Price Discrimination!
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David Bernstein
David Bernstein@ProfDBernstein·
When I looked at Harvard a few years ago, if you made 280K, had no savings, and eight kids, you still paid full price. Let's say they bump that up to 350k. The marginal cost of making that extra 100K is huge, and you gotta feel like a sucker (as you should) paying $280K in tuition over four years, when someone making 250K pays zero. Especially when in some parts of the country, 250 goes further than 350 in the expensive parts. And especially because the 70K a year post-tax brings your effective income close to or below 250. 1/
Ihtesham Ali@ihtesham2005

A four-year degree at the University of Chicago costs $386,000. They just made it free for almost every family in America. Starting Fall 2027, any household earning under $250,000 a year pays zero tuition. Under $125,000, the school also covers the dorm, the meal plan, and every fee. The most expensive university in the Midwest just became one of the cheapest options in the country for almost anyone who can get in. To understand how absurd this is, look at what you used to have to pay. UChicago undergraduate tuition for 2025 to 2026 is $73,266. Full cost of attendance with room, board, fees, books, and living expenses is roughly $93,000 a year. Across four years, the full price tag runs close to $386,000. That is the cost of a house in most American states. For a single college degree. The school had a previous free tuition threshold sitting at $125,000 of household income. They just doubled it overnight. The first thing nobody is saying out loud is what the $250,000 number actually means. The median household income in the United States is roughly $80,000. Households earning $250,000 sit in the top 5% of the entire country. UChicago is now telling 95% of American families that the sticker price does not apply to them. The most selective private university in the Midwest, the school that produced more Nobel laureates per capita than almost any institution on Earth, just stopped charging tuition to almost everyone who could realistically get in. The second thing nobody is saying is what happens to the families just under $125,000. They are not getting a discount. They are getting a fully paid four-year residential education at one of the top ten universities in the world. Tuition, dorm, meal plan, fees, all of it. Zero. A family making $120,000 a year is sending their kid to a school whose advertised cost is $93,000 a year and writing checks for nothing. The third thing is the part that should be making every other elite university nervous. UChicago is not the first to do this. MIT moved to $200,000 last year. Harvard moved to $200,000. Stanford moved to $150,000 with free room and board under $100,000. Princeton has had a version of this for years. Penn just announced a similar policy. The number is climbing every cycle and the trigger for each new announcement is the previous announcement. Every school watching this is now under pressure to match or get embarrassed in the next admissions cycle. UChicago just set the new ceiling at $250,000. Somebody is going to push it to $300,000 within twelve months. The reason the ceiling keeps moving is not generosity. It is competition for the same 3,000 students. The top 20 universities in America are fighting for the same applicant pool every year. When MIT made tuition free under $200,000, every kid in that bracket who got into both MIT and a school still charging full price stopped weighing the decision. The free school wins. The sticker price has stopped being a price for the people the universities want most. It has become a posted number that only the rich actually pay, and the rich do not need a discount to attend. The endowments are what make this possible. UChicago is sitting on $10.4 billion. Harvard is at $53 billion. MIT is at $25 billion. Stanford is at $36 billion. These are not schools running on tuition revenue. They are hedge funds with classrooms attached, and the tuition line on their balance sheet is a rounding error compared to investment returns and donor giving. Free tuition under $250,000 costs them almost nothing relative to what they earn each year on the endowment alone. The cruel reality is that the schools that can afford to make this announcement are exactly the schools that did not need to. The state university charging $30,000 a year cannot copy this. The small private liberal arts college running on a $400 million endowment cannot copy this. The cost of college in America is not going down. It is bifurcating. The top of the pyramid is now functionally free for almost everyone who gets admitted. Everything below it is getting more expensive every year. The student loan debt in America just crossed $1.8 trillion. The average graduate owes around $37,000. Forty-three million Americans are carrying education debt right now. And the schools that produce the smallest percentage of that debt are the ones that just made themselves free. There is a generation of kids growing up right now whose parents earn $200,000 a year and quietly assumed UChicago, Harvard, MIT, and Stanford were out of reach. They were wrong. The schools they thought they could not afford are the only ones they actually can. The hardest part of attending the University of Chicago in 2027 is no longer paying for it. It is getting in.

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Craig Roche
Craig Roche@MrCraigRoche·
@MarkLevineNYC The knee jerk response is to tighten regulations to protect existing tenants. But that has taken a lot of shadow supply (e.g. spare rooms, MIL units) off the market making the shortage worse, not to mention the trapped RS apartments.
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Mark D. Levine
Mark D. Levine@MarkLevineNYC·
NEW: Manhattan rents just hit another record high. Median rent for market-rate apartments in April reached $5,099/month. Up 6% in past year. Vacancy down to 1.55%. This is what a housing shortage looks like: intense demand, too few homes, and rents pushed higher and higher. It's more urgent than ever: we need to expand the supply of housing here, including affordable housing.
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Craig Roche
Craig Roche@MrCraigRoche·
@aschierenbeck This tremendously favors corporate landlords who can have an indefinite holding period on real estate. NYC transfer taxes are already high, and adding taxes to the basic operation of selling one home and using the proceeds to buy another seems likely to create stasis
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Alec Schierenbeck
Alec Schierenbeck@aschierenbeck·
Today, New Yorkers who need a mortgage to buy a home must pay an additional mortgage recording tax. This gives all-cash buyers a structural advantage when bidding against working families. Taxing all-cash purchases is a sensible way to level the playing field.
Nick Reisman@NickReisman

There's talk in the Legislature of applying a statewide tax on cash real estate purchases, potentially on sales of $1M or higher subscriber.politicopro.com/article/2026/0…

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Craig Roche
Craig Roche@MrCraigRoche·
@ByrneHobart NYC has been playing pension accounting games since the 1960s. Chicago is worse. Ultimately what saved NYC in the 70s was that the pensions were forced to buy NYC paper and munis. He doesn't seem to be much of a details guy though. Curious how the rating agencies respond
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Byrne Hobart
Byrne Hobart@ByrneHobart·
Do you think Mamdani understands the pension accounting gimmick? Does he wonder why Eric Adams didn't do it? He isn't dumb, but pension math also isn't some obvious thing.
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Craig Roche
Craig Roche@MrCraigRoche·
@KennyBurgosNY Obviously the thing to do is to set up a bank and offer 1000$ mortgage loans with an origination fee slightly less than the tax.
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