Stephen Zhu

@AKorybko @JaokooMoses not will WW3 now WW3ing

@JaokooMoses Being a witness means nothing, all that matters is if a country is willing to enforce punishment for violations of the deal, and neither Russia nor China will risk WWIII over Iran when they respectively won’t risk it over Ukraine and Taiwan.

CONFIRMED: Iran has invited China and Russia as its witnesses in Islamabad. The US has invited Saudi Arabia and Qatar on its side. The UAE has been sidelined because the Iranian delegation raised an objection against it.

@TGTM_Official is this Gucci ?

Yiwu China, they are busy printing new flags for Iran. All urgent orders

@GBX_Press all he did is the response of US take over Venezuela.

Pedro Sánchez announced that Spain has officially recognized the State of Palestine, with its capital in East Jerusalem.

@NajamAli2020 Toll is the most powerful weapon than any other, hit the US dollar and stock market. Why not

I am convinced Iran is unlikely to insist on tolls in the Strait of Hormuz indefinitely. A sunset clause is the logical outcome. That is a tactical lever, not a long-term policy. Its real priorities are clear: sanctions relief, unfreezing of assets, and a binding non-aggression commitment.

@MaxAbrahms India delusion. Pakistan has bigger impact on any aspect.

India would have been a far better host and mediator than Pakistan.

@NoiseCosmi53509 @Konekoutena actually if north Asia peace and joint development can solve the security issue. US military base break the balance.

@Konekoutena 난 한국인이고, 한국 미국 일본 중국 모두 사이좋게 지내면 좋겠지만, 내 생각에도 미국이 일본이나 한국을 위해 중국 본토에 핵을 쏠 것 같지는 않다. 한국, 일본 모두 핵무장을 해야 동북아 3국에 진정한 평화가 오고, 서로 말로만 싸울 뿐 아무 행동도 안 일어나는 평화가 오지 않을까.

美国绝对不会为了日本，使用核武器攻击同样的核大国的。如果发生核战，日本将会是第一个被抛弃的炮灰。从乌克兰到中东就能看得出来，美国不会为了他人的安全牺牲一兵一卒，一切行动都只是为了利益。美国正是不安全的祸源，他会挑起战争，然后再贩卖武器发战争财。这就是美国维系霸权的根本手段

@nooooooooticer @mkainerugaba The great first step, keep on bro

@mkainerugaba Nice Air Force nigga

I'm ready to deploy 100,000 Ugandan soldiers in Israel. Under my command. To protect the Holy Land. The land of Jesus Christ our God!

@AntonLaVay 谈仅仅是各方的中场休息，再部署，美国是被动的，以色列是不甘的，海峡无论如何在拿到筹码之前是不会开的。美国是会不会拿以色列祭上，要看看唐子的狗皮军师怎么算了。

虽然，周末之前很多人在卸beta，担忧谈判前景，但是我仍然是看好下周的行情的。 我盲目的猜想，当然很可能是错的。 我认为，无论伊朗有什么狡猾的想法，既然这次和解中国下场了，能谈的可能性就是很高。 原因在于：伊朗很多的对外贸易走的是中国的昆仑银行，伊朗人不会觉得只有美国人会冻结他们财产吧？不会吧？ 只有维护国际秩序，才是中国的根本利益，别的全都不是。

@RezaNasri1 US no credits so US dollars no credits

Five signs the U.S. is not going to act in good faith: First, Trump continues to frame the entire negotiation around the single issue of “no nuclear weapons,” a demand he knows full well is already satisfied. Iran possesses no nuclear weapons and is not seeking them. Moreover, Trump himself has repeatedly stated that he has already “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program and achieved all of America’s objectives in the conflict. This repetition alone strongly suggests that the real U.S. objective lies elsewhere. Second, Trump’s public remark that Iranian negotiators are alive solely to negotiate crosses a dangerous line. The bare minimum prerequisite for good-faith negotiations is to foster a conducive political climate, not to threaten the lives of one’s counterparts or their civilization. The Trump administration certainly knows by now that Iran does not respond to threats or coercion, yet it deliberately continues to double down on such rhetoric. Third, U.S. inaction in the face of Israel’s recent large-scale strikes on Lebanon—coupled with the blatant lie that Lebanon was never part of the ceasefire—further destroys any claim of seriousness or credibility. Breaking your word and openly lying about it before talks even begin makes clear you have no intention of honoring any commitments in a final agreement. Fourth, the American delegation notably lacks recognized nuclear experts who could properly brief senior political figures on technical realities. This inability (or unwillingness) to distinguish between civilian-grade low-enriched uranium and weapons pathways risks turning serious talks into a dialogue of the deaf, or a convenient excuse for rejecting any compromise. Finally, the tone is unmistakably one of dictation rather than negotiation. Instead of engaging in laborious talks to find common ground, the U.S. appears intent on handing Iran a list of non-negotiable demands. Good-faith diplomacy requires give-and-take, not diktat. The Iranian delegation is clear-eyed on all these points and knows full well who it is negotiating with. #IslamAbadTalks

@mikepompeo US has no problem. Trump is the greatest president ever. MAGA.

With our national debt approaching $40 trillion, America is now spending nearly $90 billion per month in just interest payments. That's more than we currently pay for our National Defense and many other parts of the federal government.  This is unsustainable.  No family operates like this.  No business operates like this.  We need serious, bipartisan efforts to rein in spending while growing our economy.  Only with these two things can we finally tackle this growing problem. msn.com/en-us/money/ma…

@Jueshengshenlan @jxzdmzw 代价是相比 饱和打击，比发导弹划算，隐形的代价是岛民的内心抵抗。动武带来的不确定和代价比围岛高多了。

@NCregisterParis @jxzdmzw 围几个月，代价是什么？ 说起来简单，那是天量是费用+变数。 为什么害怕动武呢？

以大陆现在的实力，愿意跟你谈九二共识，已经非常有诚意了，已经充分照顾了台湾方面的立场。 可是总有一些蠢货说九二共识就是没有共识。如果你是强势方，那我能理解，没有共识你才可以随意压制另一方。可当你是那个弱势方，那你是傻逼无疑。

@jxzdmzw @Jueshengshenlan 也不需要动武，围个几个月，就内乱了。没水没粮没油，靠嘴维持是不行的

@Jueshengshenlan 在法理台独还没有发生时，老共的确没想动武。但这在很多台湾人看来，是老共不敢动武。没办法，强者有理性，必然要承受误解，总不能为了出这口气就发射导弹。哎，我又说错了，不是不能，是不敢，不敢。

@BRICSinfo @FarmsMarketing slap Hassett so soon

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 US intelligence believes reopening the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely anytime soon, Reuters reports.

@LouMannheim87 @RKelanic keep wti at 100 is favorable to Iran to get more fruit on table, so I think they won’t allow crude dip too much. The biggest card is the strait, any government endeavor to manipulate wti will be swipe out.

@RKelanic Yeah. It's hard to see who is trading what. Bessent could be in there (in theory). Trading around certain levels and such. But he cant go too big, or he's gonna get found out. But... maybe...

The oil futures market is *so weird.* Futures are pricing oil ~$40 less than physical spot prices. Yet there’s no credible story where physical oil costs $40 less 1-2 months from now: -ceasefire tenuous -Hormuz at a trickle -damage to oil infrastructure -10 mb/d shut in Is USG gaming this somehow? 🤔

@RKelanic This oil implies weekend meeting met all parties’ target. No nuke, open Hormuz and controlled by Iran. Nothing happened in past 40 days. Mkt looks toooooo optimistic now

@DeItaone Bassett is new supreme leader? What he can decide?

HASSETT: WE EXPECT RAPID REDUCTION IN ENERGY PRICES ONCE STRAIT OF HORMUZ OPENS

If keep Brent at high, would be better for Iran to get more result they want. US and allies can’t undertake it.

@Currentreport1 Wait, he can be the delegate of nato ?

JUST IN: Spain says NATO will not participate in any military operation to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

@FirstSquawk Even 2 years, you can’t open it

HASSETT: HORMUZ CAN BE OPENED WITHIN TWO MONTHS

@Areskapitalon 当然，伊朗如果继续控制霍尔木兹，推高美国cpi并预期加息是很快就可以看到的。目前即使risk on，我相信fund也很难继续在股市保持高敞口了。前一阶段的risk reblance 基本上完成了，维持100美元的wti， 等于手指一直放在板机上。本质上老美也没有很好的办法。

现在局势稳得很。因为美国全国上下，不管他们多么怀念帝国荣光，都不可否认一件事实：作为一个靠放水救市接近二十年的晚期帝国，金融是美国最脆弱的环节，伊朗非常完美地卡住了这个环节。再下场打伊朗，是损敌一千，伤己一万。美伊有不再爆发战争的默契，这是现在铁的事实。任何交易都不应该按照热战会随时爆发的预期去做。 但是，美伊之间的战争还在继续，这也是事实。这场战争就是金融战。IRGC已经决定了把军事斗争转变为金融斗争，这也是非常聪明的做法。 伊朗具有时间优势，以色列对此没有哪怕一点点办法。而这个金融战将会使油价保持在高位，因为每天六百万桶以上的产能几乎是无限期损失了。并且在某个时刻，会引发不可控的第二次oil shock，类比去年的白银。我认为，在这之前可以有仓位，但应当轻仓，原油最好的入场点将是热战预期彻底消退之时。这之前股市将会处在risk on状态。