CycleHunter

@thejbullmarket Add up maximum capacity as if everything were additive. Yanbu can’t export 7 million barrels per day, but if you just started in oil yesterday, I guess that detail doesn’t matter. A 3.8 million bpd drop is extreme regardless.

The myth of the Strait of Hormuz closure. 80% (16.25M bpd) of the 20M barrels per day supply of the Strait of Hormuz has already been replaced or been rerouted. 🇸🇦 7M: Saudi Reroute 📈 4.25M: Pre-War Surplus 🇨🇳 2M: China Safe-Passage 🇦🇪 1.5M: UAE ADCOP reroute 🇮🇷 1M: Iran Jask Bypass 🇮🇳 400k: India Safe-Passage Deficit? Only 3.8M bpd and even just 2 more tankers per day would reduce the deficit to 0. With 1.3B and 500 millions barrels in combined reserves for China & India respectively, they have a 3-4 month reserves before they run into a deficit. This is why stocks are back at nearly ATH again. Opening the Strait of Hormuz has now merely turned into an afterthought.

@RyanRozbiani ☀️

We have a saying in Sweden: you don’t shit in the blue cabinet. (In older Swedish homes, the blue cabinet was where you kept the finest porcelain and valuables. You didn’t touch it. Ever.) The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s blue cabinet. If you’re going to poke Iran, you better know exactly what you’re doing. Because this isn’t some small mistake zone where problems quietly resolve themselves.

@anasalhajji @Kpler I am watching Rotterdam, Zeebrugge, and Eemshaven. Except for Norwegian shipments and a few LNG carriers from the US, nothing is coming in. Does anyone have a benchmark for what normal trading volumes from the Middle East look like?

LNG is going to the highest bidder. This carrier is diverted form Europe to Brazil Map form @Kpler

@EthanLevins2 Racial framing like “white vs non-white” is largely an Anglo-American lens and doesn’t map well onto all conflicts. During the Kosovo War, NATO sided with Kosovo Albanians (Muslim country) And bombed Serbia, a majority white, Christian country.

The West doesn’t care about Lebanon because the people dying aren’t white Europeans. If this happened in Ukraine, they would have sanctioned Israel within minutes. Western nations have a separate moral code based on race and religion.

@Verissimus446 @OrlandoG85 @JoshWeber2 @TheQuartering What do Jews have to do with any of this? You're having a conversation with yourself at this point.

@NZintio @OrlandoG85 @JoshWeber2 @TheQuartering Are you one of those smoothbrains that hates Jews more than you love this country?

🚨 BREAKING: A regional source tells CNN a U.S.-Iran deal is expected to be closed tonight. wow..it's almost like somebody said this EXACT thing would happen...

@Verissimus446 @OrlandoG85 @JoshWeber2 @TheQuartering Schrödinger's 4D chess. Unfalsifiable by design. Every outcome is proof of genius.

@OrlandoG85 @NZintio @JoshWeber2 @TheQuartering We've seen this play out so many fucking times, by now. Yes, he says off-the wall shit, then carries out measured, effective, and masterful action behind it. He has done this Every. Fucking. Time. ...And these ree-rees keep falling for it. Just wait, and see what happens.

@TheQuartering Threatening to wipe out 90 million people is inappropriate regardless of whether you mean it or not. Iranians are real people, just like you and me.

The hill of most of my peers are retard fear-mongers and that I was right and no WW3 or nuclear holocaust like they were all running around all day saying would happen with certainty? Well, because I don't look at my viewers like someone I need to make afraid just to tune in.

@JoshWeber2 @TheQuartering The crowd I'm part of expected a TACO and some fake news about an imminent ceasefire. Still, it's highly inappropriate to threaten a genocide. If Putin used Trump's language, the outrage would know no end.

@NZintio @TheQuartering Because we've seen this before and some people still freak out every single time.

@Villgecrazylady Hey, published a piece on Barak Ravid at Axios. He's been dropping "Iran deal imminent" scoops every time WTI gets too high - 11 times since Feb 28 cyclehunter.substack.com/p/want-to-know…

Translation: The Iranians called Trump’s bluff so now they are faking “talks” so Trump can pretend to be gracious and “give them an extension.”

@DagnyTaggart963 Hey, published a piece on Barak Ravid at Axios. He's been dropping "Iran deal imminent" scoops every time WTI gets too high - 11 times since Feb 28 cyclehunter.substack.com/p/want-to-know…

Reuters with nameless “ Senior government official” Axios who is the leader in spreading fake news daily with more “positive news” and markets are falling for it Again. Clown freaking world .

@adamscochran Hey, just published a piece on Barak Ravid at Axios. He's been dropping "Iran deal imminent" scoops every time WTI gets too high - 11 times since Feb 28 cyclehunter.substack.com/p/want-to-know…

Currently doing a deep dive on the insider trading related to Trump’s war announcements. I knew it was large, but, there is A LOT more than is seen at first glance. It looks like it’s much more coordinated, may include complicit journalists and is over $100B+ in notional value traded. If you have any tips, or anything you’ve seen that you think is suspicious related to trading, news scoops, or that may link journalists or headline news aggregator accounts personally to Trump’s inner circle (such as hey this guy went to school with Jared!) drop me a DM so I can pull at that thread.

‘Major escalation’: Iran expected to respond to South Pars attacks aje.news/ukui10?update=… via @AJEnglish

@Cernovich Remember how you were late to COVID-19, @Cernovich? Maybe rapid situational judgment isn’t your strength. You changed your stance then, now you’re sure the U.S. wins against Iran?

It’s been one spectacular military success after another. The strategic aim is up for debate, but how can anyone claim the 🇺🇸 looks weak to China? Completely absurd.

BREAKING: Iran rejects plan to reopen Strait of Hormuz.

@TheQuartering Trump never mentioned once while campaigning that he wanted to end a “47 year war with Iran”… He did, however, say this… x.com/kyleseraphin/s…

@calvinfroedge No matter what americans vote for you get an Israel first president. We are all goyims.

The main problem for the US is it lost all the moral legitimacy it had coming out of WW2 Political capital consumed for the sake of Israel Now even former European allies are starting to see the US as the bad guys Not the people, but the regime We've basically become Nazis

@RashaAl_Khatib @ira_joseph @ColumbiaUEnergy @SPGlobal No, China is a net seller of LNG atm. Record LNG Volumes oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-…

@ira_joseph @ColumbiaUEnergy @SPGlobal Interesting signal. After 2022 many countries accelerated renewables, nuclear and demand flexibility. That diversification may explain why LNG supply shocks are now translating into much softer price spikes.

The spike in LNG prices in 2026 is far less severe, thus far, than in 2022; a worrying longer term trend for LNG sellers if the indefinite loss of Qatari LNG creates only this level of scarcity pricing. Perhaps it's an optimistic outlook on war ending. @ColumbiaUEnergy @SPGlobal

@BartGonnissen @PTibx @Deopiniemaker Invoking international law to demand free passage through Hormuz — while the US and Israel just conducted targeted killings of a head of state and his family members. The rules only apply when they're convenient?

@PTibx @Deopiniemaker Omdat in UNCLOS specifiek de straat van Hormuz als een "internationale straat" is gedefinieerd. Zowel in UNCLOS82 als UNCLOS58. Beiden garanderen ongehinderde "innocent passage" en "transit passage. Dit wil zeggen dat het illegaal is om tol te heffen.

Hoezo niet ? Waarom niet ?