Nassau Nuts!

@g1asshammer @moseskagan Is that what they call a “soft landing”?

@moseskagan You simply deport 60 million illegal aliens and that would free up supply without going into a recession.

What every voter and apparently, the NY Times Editorial Board, should know about housing policy: 1. Rents reflect the balance of supply of apartments and demand for those apartments in a given area. That’s it; there’s no magic. If you want lower rents, you can hope for a recession that destroys jobs and, therefore, demand. Or you can add supply. 2. There is no amount of money that any big city government could feasibly spend that would add materially to supply. This is because, depending on the location, new apartments cost $250,000-1,000,000 to develop… building even a few hundred of those starts to stress any city budget, and many big cities need tens or hundreds of thousands. 3. On the other hand, investors (including pension funds and endowments, insurance companies, rich families, etc.) can collectively **easily** provide enough capital to build as much housing as we need **so long as they are confident they can get a reasonable return**. To get those investors to fund the creation of the housing our society needs, we must do two things: 1. Dramatically reduce the time & complexity associated with securing governmental permission to develop housing. This means reviewing and simplifying the overlapping regulations that constrain housing production: zoning codes, building codes, parking, ADA, etc. But it also means changing the cultures within the relevant governmental agencies from “default no” to “how can we help you?”. 2. Provide certainty around on-going regulation of apartment operations. The way investors get a return from building rentals is as follows: They hire managers to lease the apartments, collect the rents, pay operating expenses and any mortgage payments, and then send the investors the cashflow that remains. But governments all over the country have been restricting the manner in which apartment buildings can be operated in all kinds of ways. For example: Cities have been making it harder to screen tenants, while also making it much harder to evict tenants who don’t pay. You can see why both of those measures are politically popular. After all, who doesn’t want people to get second chances? And who wants anyone to get evicted? But, as a manager, the combination of those two regulations makes it much harder to predict, with any certainty, that the rent will get paid… and that makes it very difficult to get investors to provide capital to create more housing. Another example: Rent control. Again, I understand why renters love rent control and why politicians want to give it to them. But, if, as has been the case in NY, LA and San Francisco, city governments hold annual rent increases below the rate of growth in the operating expenses of the buildings, the cashflow payable to the investors shrinks… making them much less likely to invest capital in building more apartments. In conclusion: For ~every other good or service in the economy, we allow the market to function, and the result is that we have a surplus of choice at all price points (think of food or clothes or cars), which is spectacular for the consumer. If we want a surplus of choice at all price points in housing, we need to get comfortable with the idea of allowing the market to provide it. And that means allowing investors to build rental apartments *and* allowing them to operate those apartments in a manner consistent with making a reasonable profit. Remember: Every developer of rentals is either a landlord-in-waiting or hoping to sell to one.

@browch05 I get that.

@NassauNuts We haven’t bred for 2 years and don’t plan to until someone proves I’m part of the future in 4 years. No ones come close yet.

I forgot to add. I do realize the boutique meets and only millionaires running horses is a potential outcome in this country. And I also realize everyone will demand an end to subsidizing horse racing in that model.

@browch05 Ok. But I don’t understand what that means. 😂😂😂 Please explain it to me like I’m a 5-yr old. 😀

@NassauNuts I’ll tag you day 1 of Saratoga when people complain about having to bet claiming races that didn’t exist in a healthy ecosystem.

@browch05 Good point. Good dialogue. Most businesses are complex. Commercial real estate invests millions in projects that can be obsolete in the 5-10 yrs it takes to build. Breeding jumpers takes at least *8 yrs* before they compete. Similar equine math *plus* 6 more years of no income.

@NassauNuts Sure is. The problem:

@RobertMSterling @alexisohanian Accountability

I just had the craziest experience at the airport. We are about to board a flight to Atlanta when the pilot from the incoming plane walks out of the jetway. Guy is probably late 50s, salt and pepper hair, military look. The kind of pilot you instantly feel good about seeing on your flight. Pilot walks over to the counter, gets on the PA system, and starts addressing everyone. “Folks, I’ve been doing this a long time. Flying one of these jets is easy. The hard part is looking at 130 people and telling them their flight is going to be delayed.” Audible groans throughout the boarding gate. Most people here are flying to Atlanta as a layover before another flight. 130 people just had their day become a complete mess. The pilot goes on. “I get it, trust me. But here’s the deal: During our landing, we had a small mechanical issue. I’m not your pilot for the next leg, but I don’t feel confident the jet’s safe to fly until we have a mechanical team look it over, and I don’t feel comfortable asking the next pilots to fly you guys until we get confirmation.” He points at the agents next to him behind the counter: “Now, none of this is the agents’ fault. Please be kind to them. I’m the one who made this decision, not them, so any inconvenience you experience is my fault. Just please know that I don’t do this lightly, and I’m only doing it because I believe it’s in the best interests of everyone’s safety.” Now this is where the story gets crazy. The pilot puts the microphone down, grabs his suitcase, and all the people in the gate… Start clapping. I’m not joking, everyone starts clapping for the guy. 130 people who just had their travel plans ruined give an ovation to the guy who made the decision and delivered the message. All because he addressed them with decency and transparency, took ownership of the decision, made it clear that it was necessary, and explained why it was in everyone’s best interest. It’s honestly one of the best examples of strong communication—of strong leadership, for that matter—that I’ve seen in a long time. @Delta, whoever your Atlanta to Wichita pilot was this morning, he’s one of the good ones. Please tell him the delayed passengers of flight 1637 appreciate what he did.

@TVietor08 @Mikel_Jollett Corruption, in a word

Trump 2.0 is just a smash-and-grab job to make as much money as possible, optics and laws be damned.

@SkinnerPm @atrupar Corruption

Knows very little about him the plaintiff suing the government that he runs, the defendant, and then him approving the settlement both as the plaintiff and the defendant.

@BharatRamamurti Corruption is the word everyone uses

This is an infinite money glitch. A POTUS sues the government on some BS grounds. The DOJ “settles” the case and pays out of the Judgment Fund, which, by law, requires no new appropriation. The terms and beneficiaries of the settlement are essentially un-reviewable in court.

@samstein Corruption is the word everyone understands

Ok. so they really went ahead and did a $1.766 BILLION slush fund for MAGA. it will "come from the judgment fund, which is a perpetual appropriation allowing DOJ to settle and pay cases." justice.gov/opa/pr/justice…

@racing_dudes Already did

If you haven’t already, now would probably be the time to just completely disregard Beyer Speed Figures. Legit shocked.

@FanDuel_Racing @curtiskalleward @CalebFDTV 162 games, lower the mound, the DH, pitch clock, shot clock, widen the lane, 3-pt shot, move goalpost, bump & run rules, 2-pt conversion, kickoffs, etc, etc., etc.

Should the Triple Crown schedule be modified? @curtiskalleward and @CalebFDTV discuss! Let us know what you think in the comments.

@johnarnold @matthewstoller Winner, winner, chicken dinner

Today's system taxes labor > capital > inheritance whereas changes in the economy increasingly argue for one that taxes inheritance > capital > labor.

💥 💥 💥

@USMNTOtaku @herculezg He just scores goals. A # 9 who scores goals. Imagine that 🚂 🚂 🚂

With his goal against FC Twente, Ricardo Pepi finishes the season as PSV’s top scorer in the Eredivisie with 16 goals, despite only playing 1415 minutes. 🚂🇺🇸

@atrupar Corruption is the word that resonates with everyone

Buttigieg on Sean Duffy: "I love roadtrips. I love America. I actually took a taxpayer-funded roadtrip lasted about 7 months. It was in Afghanistan. This is something very different. To make roadtrips unaffordable and then go around celebrating your own roadtrip is actually what people are so frustrated about."

@JarickWorks @Arbitrary_user @AlexNowrasteh The only broad-based, middle class growth of wealth in history

@Arbitrary_user @AlexNowrasteh Not really. It was a trauma response to war, in much the same way that earlier high birth rates were a response to high infant mortality.

Going out on a limb here, but I don't think the phones did it.

@Arbitrary_user @AlexNowrasteh The only broad-based, middle class growth of wealth in history

@AlexNowrasteh The baby boom seems more and more bizarre with each passing year.

@punishedcornpop @Arbitrary_user @AlexNowrasteh A plank in the only broad-based, middle class growth of wealth in history

@Arbitrary_user @AlexNowrasteh Like 8 million people used the GI Bill for a house 1945-56.

@SteveRattner @AndreaChalupa It’s corruption. One word that resonates with everyone.

This is extraordinary. I've been a professional investor for decades and I haven't made this many trades in my career. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…