ValueNerd
37 posts
ValueNerd
@NerdValue
Aspiring value investor. Aim to learn and help others to learn too.
Katılım Temmuz 2021
34 Takip Edilen7 Takipçiler
I'd rather have more bookmarks than likes on a post, means people really think there's alpha
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True
Also, lagging local models will soon be good enough to run most tedious business processes for very cheap.
Without giving away the firm’s data.
Deep Sail Capital@DeepSailCapital
At some point frontier models are going to be so smart (and relatively expensive vs lagging models) they will lose broad appeal and usage will be minuscule verse lagging models. We not there yet, but we are close.
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@sunny_amit Let me be more clear.
Some buyers have allegedly been engaged in M&A conversations as far back as January. They’re not starting from scratch.
Does that mean we will get an immediate bid? Obviously no, but an expedited process js reasonable due to that + bidder competition.
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@NerdValue Following the asset and starting the process is quite different. We would follow many targets in our roster, while we engaged in the process with few in my experience. It's very usual M&A.
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This. Patience is key.
Process isn’t starting from zero, buyers have been following the asset for years now.
But there’s new data experts have to go through. Internal pitches and approvals before placing a firm bid.
Amit Mishra, CFA@sunny_amit
$ABVX it takes weeks from LOI to NDA to whole due diligence before the M&A is decided. People are ranting here as if the Big Pharma are buying Advil from Costco.
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His speech has always been consistently denying any M&A talks, he has to. But the reporting is there since January.
People need to put their thinking hats and read between the lines.
For instance, why shorten the offering time to 1 day? This is unusually short.
Panther@PickingMyOwn
$ABVX Marc doing exactly what he’s supposed to do. He’s got a price, and it will be met. The threat to go alone must be credible to get that price and the cash and steadfast work make it so. Again, doing exactly what he’s supposed to do.
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I mean, having either 220 or 125 or 100 as the 3 possible scenarios seems a bit unforgiving, no?
I did these back of the envelope calcs for illustration purposes.
Note that 10% chance of 125 is way too high IMO, offering at that price was oversubscribed 7x.
John Mason@johnkmason
Think at $160 you're pricing in a high probability of takeout at $220 or higher (which is prob right), but the overall risk/reward isn't that attractive, and def not at the sizing I've had. Mainly been able to hold bc I was confident demand would drive it to $140-150.
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Not a specialist but Icotyde’s definitely safe and will likely be effective in p3.
But it doesn’t seem to have the same placebo-adjusted remission as Obe or am I missing something?
Moreover, it seems like its patients were less refractory than Obe’s (or did my AI hallucinate?)
Andre-ACGT@Andre_AGTC
@IfkovicsA I like $ABVX but don't want to live in la-la land Obe is great drug but Icotyde IL-23 oral peptide is comming fairly soon UC ph3 data in 2027, Chron's 6mo later. Ico can cut Obe revenue in half if not more bc the doctors will be comfortable prescribing it
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@DeepSailCapital I agree in principle
But I have to give some discount due to management’s repeated downplaying of a situation that was clearly much larger than portrayed.
Not a game changer though.
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This is one of those situations where if your investment goes down significantly you need to reevaluate and either sell or double your position, I am doubling my position.
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I have been pounding the table on $SNWV around $10. I was hoping for $7 handle but it never got there.
Short term industry impacts will be gone in 2 quarters and we are back to $35, $60 by this time next year.
Product is still excellent, wound care still needs it, management still solid, no need to raise cash.
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$ABVX
Obefazimod has:
- Efficacy better than Rinvoq (or at worst on par)
- Safety on par with the ILs
- Ingested orally vs injecting (ILs)
- No lab monitoring
- Works on highly refractory patients AND even in non-responders even.
How’s the base case not 6b peak sales?
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To me this looks like a profilactic move.
It gives you leverage in buyout negotiations and cash runway in case these don’t go nicely.
Having said that, do you really need that extra leverage if you have 4-5 suitors killing themselves to buy your product?
Size Investor@SizeInvestor
$ABVX question: does a $600M raise change the buyout potential? It is a net neutral event in terms of enterprise value.
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I think the safety discussion is over (thank you for your great work)
Lets hope discussion now shifts to what are peak sales estimates and multiples
Especially now that we know not all hope is lost for non-responder patients
Adam May@A_May_MD
Just now going through the supplemental slides tacked on to the new $ABVX deck… We already reviewed that the 2 “new” cases from Part 2 today clearly preceded the patients’ enrollment in the trial, but even though their observed cancer rates are well within background expectations…$ABVX is actually including a prostate case from **induction** where the patient had only been exposed to obefazimod for ***2 WEEKS*** 🤣 The fact that this is even INCLUDED in their “cancer rate” is ludicrous, but fortunately we don’t even have to argue about it since the rate still came in in-line despite adding this in. Still, this goes to show how conservative they are being with these calculations and just how far *FAR* away they are from any real safety signals. Incredible…2 weeks! 😅 @EpochSwing
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@InvestSpecial No news nor rumors
Didn’t understand why it tanked so much following after underwhelming results either.
My gut says its just returning to ‘normal’ after an unwarranted sell-off.
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$LNSR has been ripping over the last few weeks, with the stock up nearly 20%. No news that might have driven this, at least nothing publicly disclosed.
The spread to the cash offer has narrowed to 25%.
Anyone seen anything?
Dalius - Special Sits@InvestSpecial
Soft positive for $LNSR Brandes Investment Partners just disclosed a 6.5% stake. They manage ~$37B, so it’s a small position for them but the signal is clear: they like the setup here.
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