BullishDoctor

The average lead time for most drug production equipment is ~6 months (though ordering ahead + custom solutions creates a range of 6-18mo for orders to revenue). Current expectations for onshoring are that the benefits will land most acutely 2027. $DHR / $SRT are more confidently suggesting that equipment has bottomed with potential for 2H to be the return to growth. This would imply that their 2Q earnings calls, most of the production capex companies will have gained the visibility they need to raise CY26 guidance based on orders in hand, if they haven't already (like $WAT to some extent). It also marks the potential for more of this alleged CY27 to become visible as early orders + ones w/ customization get made (most commonly done for bioreactors). On one hand, consensus estimates for 2Q across the tools space seem only achievable/modestly beatable in most cases, and big bioprocess cos are no different, especially if relying on consumable growth (commercial is not volatile and is most of mix for big guys, tougher comps in 2Q on last year's small tariff pushout + pull fwd), and guides are already somewhat back-half-weighted. This is much like last Q where 1Q performance wasn't enough to move guidance higher. On the other hand, however, there could be a lot to look forward to, and least for those with bioprocess or QC exposure... Taken together 1) most tools companies have done a good job keeping near-term expectations low, 2) bioprocess or QC equipment is more volatile than consumables/service, 3) we have allegedly bottomed in production equipment, and 4) companies now have orders in hand to underwrite equipment sales for the full year. Scenario you're playing for would be that the entire complex beats + raises/maintains to de-risk guides and the one you own beats, raises, and convinces everyone it could happen again in 3mo. Cleveland's surveys seem to back up the notion that "things got better" for pharma equipment demand in 2Q vs 1Q. Trial starts data / CRO bookings have been great for a couple quarters, which also supports the ideal that consumables exposed to clinical trials could accelerate. FDA seems to be focused on helping industry sentiment too. Most trad tools companies have already run 10%-15% last month but most of those not attached to the AI trade are still down YTD after a negative 2025. The space is basically back to ~flat vs pre-earnings selloffs when recovery/upside didn't materialize. The conglomerates still have to contend with weak A&G/pharma non-clinical R&D exposure all year, and the CROs have re-rated partially on tools correlation + the confirmation that the trial environment is in upswing mode. However, seems like there's still too much unjustified correlation happening. Lot of ways to sneakily play where the actual recoveries are happening. For example, pure-plays on production moved about the same over the past month and will stand out fundamentally. Both $SRT and $RGEN seem asymmetric given that 1) they both beat/tracked ahead of guide in 1Q but didn't raise because 2) they refused to guide in a way that captures equipment demand recovering in 2H, 3) they have higher exposure to clinical trial volumes vs $DHR or $TMO, and 4) their shares have largely performed the way the R&D tools guys did since last Q despite being the ones most capable of beating + raising. What gives me pause on $SRT is that we never know the quarterly consumable/equipment dynamic and there's a decent risk consumables comps were way bigger than we all thought in 2Q25. Is in-line + guide raise going to be as well-received as beat + raise? The way I could be wrong on equipment: management gets over-conservative and doesn't guide most of the recovery at all and makes us wait for a big 4Q beat or something. Orders got pushed out in the past which burned guys like and $SRT (2Q24) and $DHR (went from talking up numbers to talking them back down in mid-2025). Doesn't help that the seasonally-biggest quarter for equipment on average is 4Q. $RGEN has shorter lead times which could cut both ways but also makes it less likely they chicken out when the orders land. RGEN setup keeps seeming good into EPS season and then suffering from positioning being too crowded into their print + random 1-off drama like divestitures + big customer inventories + all the dumb bear ST & LT cases invented by the pods. All of said bear cases keep dying/getting addressed/being proven wrong, the company keeps beating estimates, and the macro backdrop keeps improving in ways they benefit the most from vs peers. A drama-free quarter could be a spring-loaded one this time around. Don't @ me for shilling my pet stocks. You do it too. Speaking of pet stocks, I think Peter has the timing right with $RPID. I put this on the backburner back in Dec for $TWST (pods - why on earth did you make this a consensus short?) and trying to be an AI bottleneck bro while still being somewhat true to my quality/LT growth lens. This proved fortunate and the timing to rotate back looks... perfect? The above dynamics on equipment could benefit them (even if it's harder to read macro to a small co w/ an underpenetrated product), and they already beat guide on placements/validations in 1Q. The bigger positive surprise came from consumables to boot looks like pull-through is accelerating. Similar to the RGEN setup but with more torque + more ways things are progressing favorably. They had 100% success w/ their $AMGN validations in the quarter and now you're seeing their products listed on $MRK's channel. Management also has their stock comp now, so no disincentive to raise guide if/when they beat again. The cash burn surprise and subsequent raise at the bottom was lame, but the size of the dilution pales in comparison to what you're playing for w/ RapidCoin IMO. Think it's worth a second look if you're like me and looking for new longs to replace the stuff that worked. All that aside, I'd also caution those touring the space for AI exposure. Benefits to fundamentals are going to be far more modest than people seem to expect in the near-term and probably the medium-term. It's just the nature of the industry to be slow, but it's more than that - while a lot of societally-exciting stuff is going to happen over the next 3-5 due to LLMs in biotech, the actual value capture is going to be much more complicated to isolate and invest in. LMK what you guys think... getting harder to make myself post regularly when there's too little engagement, debate, etc. Shoutout to the ppl who come for me in the DMs whenever I do these, I actually enjoy/welcome the debate even if your words are harsh. Will pontificate more later.

@NeuroStockDoc Awesome, hope you like it and leave a review 🙏

I have some great news, I am practically finished writing the book. It is approx 65k words across 40 chapters, so at this point it’s mostly proofreading, editing, and finishing the illustrations. This page is from the $MELI case study, one many businesses explored throughout the book. What’s interesting is that I started writing a book about investing and ended up writing a book about something much bigger. After studying great businesses, great CEOs, capital allocators, acquisitions, mistakes, bubbles, crashes, and decades of market history, I came away with a surprising conclusion. Most investment success has very little to do with predicting the future. It has far more to do with understanding incentives, recognizing quality, allocating capital rationally, avoiding unforced errors, and then having the patience to let compounding do what it does best. The greatest fortunes in investing were rarely built by people who found hundreds of great ideas. They were built by people who found a handful of exceptional businesses and held them through years of doubt, volatility, and uncertainty. Ironically, one of the hardest parts of this entire process hasn’t been writing 40 chapters. It’s choosing a title. I thought I had found one I loved, but the closer I get to the finish line, the more I find myself second guessing it. Any good ideas? Capturing years of lessons, mistakes, insights, and approximately 65k words in just a few words is proving significantly harder than I expected. 🌹

@realroseceline Awesome. I’ll be a buyer. Thanks!

@NeuroStockDoc End of summer I hope

can't buy, can't sell, can only stare at the gains. Investing purgatory.

$qure $clpt Amt 130 holy fucking shit 5 years ago! Rush university She says he got it 5 years ago and is back to work!!! He was no longer able to work. Not only stabilized but he has improved!! He is working full time. Omg youtu.be/DdBIzSN6tX4

@JasonGreenwal12 Great humble brag on your screen size

I feel so anti-American watching soccer; George Washington and Thomas Jefferson must be turning in their graves

The FDA Commissioner role is open. This is a pivotal moment for American medicine — & for American patients. Here’s what I believe the next Commissioner should stand for. Not as a wish list. As a baseline. 🔬 1. BRING BACK THE ADCOMS — AND MAKE THEM COUNT. Advisory Committee meetings are one of the FDA’s most powerful tools for transparency. They should return in full force. Open. Public. And real. Patients, doctors, scientists, advocates, & skeptics should all be able to speak. But if you want to speak, you fill out a financial conflict-of-interest form under penalty of perjury — & you read it out loud at the podium before you say another word. Every single person. And if the issues are complex and the science requires more than one day, then take the time. Don’t cut people off because the schedule says so. The public deserves to see exactly how these decisions are made. Real transparency builds real trust. ⚖️ 2. STOP ASKING ONLY “IS IT SAFE ENOUGH TO APPROVE?” — START ASKING “WHAT HAPPENS IF WE DON’T?” For rare diseases. For serious conditions with no good options. For patients who don’t have ten years to wait for traditional trials that may never be feasible. Every regulatory decision carries two risks: the risk of approving something, and the risk of not approving it. Both are real. Both affect real people. When traditional gold-standard trials aren’t practical, we should still be able to move with urgency — but only when paired with strong post-approval commitments and rigorous safety monitoring. We can give desperate patients a chance without abandoning scientific integrity. 🇺🇸 3. THE FDA’S ONLY CLIENT IS THE AMERICAN PATIENT. FULL STOP. The FDA exists to serve patients — not outside interests or external pressures of any kind. It must continue protecting the public from products that carry real, known risks but offer no meaningful clinical benefit. At the same time, when there is credible evidence that a treatment can help patients with serious conditions, Americans and their physicians should be trusted to make informed decisions once they have complete and honest information about the risks, benefits, and alternatives. The FDA’s job is to make sure the science is sound and the information is clear. Then let patients and doctors do what’s best for them. These principles matter because the FDA’s decisions affect every family in this country. Note: This is a simple social media post and not a massive policy document. The issues are FAR more nuanced, there are challenges and risks with each of the things I said above, and I recognize that. But it's intended to serve as a discussion starter. We must always strive to improve, and we can when we have open debate and dialogue.

Please take a moment to read this article. I am proud to call Peter a friend. He went beyond an investment and learned what people go through in real life. That matters a lot more than just making money in a stock.

$clpt Neurona getting bought out = game changing moment, the 2 epilepsy programs are golden, and Alzheimer’s third program is going to get money thrown at it. Market is sleeping on what this truly means. One of the most important days in clearpoint history.

$QURE presented at NORD on April 14. There was a nugget in that presentation that I found very interesting and what it means for the incoming CBER director. Free article below. botn.bio/p/an-important…

$clpt Neurona Interesting early abstract, more data on the 22nd The first bilateral MTLE subject treated with NRTX-1001 achieved seizure freedom and continues to be seizure-free at 6 months (time of abstract submission). These data, and data for additional subjects treated, will be presented at the conference. @peter_mantas @biggercapital @NeuroStockDoc index.mirasmart.com/AAN2026/PDFfil…

$qure Listen to Sarah Tabrizi explaining AMT-130 and how two patients went back to work. Please share and retweet. This was last week at the Samuel Gee lecture.

🤔From the FDA's public calendar: On Mar 3, 2026, FDA Commissioner Makary met with "Arnold Ventures representatives" at FDA headquarters in Silver Spring, MD. Multiple FDA staff attended. [1] | Subject: "Collaboration Opportunities" Here's what was happening that same week: — $XBI $QURE #FDA

This is how an @HHSGov / @US_FDA official speaks in public. Imagine the conversations and behaviors internally. Meanwhile, as they stonewall a promising therapy in AMT-130, Christina's father continues down the painful path of Huntington's disease. I suppose Christina's family must deserve it – because they're part of the "swamp." The "swamp" Nixon is referring to includes the ~48,000 individuals from the Huntington's community behind the two petitions delivered to the FDA. Petitions the FDA did not even review. @SenGillibrand | @lukaske @SenRickScott | @ClareLattanze @SenRonJohnson | @GraceCarnathan @RepAuchincloss | @GeorginaBurros It doesn't have to be this way. You have thousands of bipartisan constituents watching proudly of the actions you've taken so far. The latest being the press conference on Mar 10th that @SenRonJohnson held. For the sake of Christina and the millions of rare disease patients, keep going.

JUST RELEASED: Episode 17 - Market Stoplight Session of Shooting The Bull Pod with Drowsy and @investing_bear This week’s: Green Light - Reddit $RDDT Yellow Light - Nebius $NBIS Red Light - SpaceX IPO & $ASTS open.spotify.com/episode/3B3Dqk…

New from me on $QURE and FDA. Free, no paywall. The FDA, urged to avoid controversy, creates a new headache with attack against UniQure Anonymous diatribe from a senior official plunges agency back into headlines statnews.com/2026/03/06/fda…

My letter to the @SenateAging, @SenRickScott, @SenGillibrand on the FDA's recent FDA's handling of AMT-130 for Huntington's disease. The same day the FDA called it a 'failed product', the UK Government officially called it a breakthrough. The HD community deserves better.

$qure another point that many get wrong: The Co is/was prepared to conduct a larger study; it did not expect to see promising data so early... ...in fact the FDA spotted it with them and awarded RMAT. uniQure then followed the agency's advice only to have the goal post shifted afterwards. That is the issue, not the details around what would be an ethical control group, or that the Co does not believe per se that a confirmatory study is (financially) feasible.

Pre-ordered today