Jay retweetledi
Jay
81 posts


@chrisdfella @zerohedge The irony of you misspelling “dumb” is priceless.
God bless America 🇺🇸
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Jay retweetledi

SPX GEX LEVELS: May 14
Everyone wants to know when this stops. Here's the structural roadmap.
Tomorrow's expected range: 7,400 – 7,525. Grinding toward the 7,500 magnet ahead of Friday's OPEX cliff.
THREE THINGS THAT STOP THE GRIND:
1. Friday's OPEX cliff. Monthly OPEX drains 24.3% of remaining gamma. After Friday, surviving gamma drops to +2.54M shares, the thinnest blanket since the rally started. The $1.46B of positive gamma compressing every move right now will be structurally compromised by Friday's close. That's the mechanical ceiling. The range expands, dips get deeper, and the magnets lose their pull.
2. The rising wedge. Day 9. The 7/7 pattern has a 73.1% historical probability of a 2%+ decline within three weeks. SPY has rallied 5.2% since the alert, approaching the +6.42% average adverse move. The wedge doesn't tell you the day. It tells you the window is narrowing.
3. A headline that overwhelms the gamma. Trump and Xi hold their bilateral Thursday morning in Beijing. The summit is focused on trade, Iran oil purchases, and Taiwan. A breakthrough on Iranian oil is deflationary and extends the grind. A breakdown on Taiwan language or trade reprices risk into the thinnest gamma blanket of the cycle.
Any one of these can cool the market. All three converge within 48 hours.
NOW HERE'S WHY IT HASN'T STOPPED YET:
Back-to-back hot CPI and PPI prints. FinTwit panicked. The market rallied. SPX closed at 7,444.23, up 43 points. Our year-end target was 7,462. We're 18 points away in May.
Here's why the market shrugged off two hot inflation prints. Our inflation signal matrix shows that what matters isn't the direction of the print, it's whether CPI and PPI agree. Both hot? That's agreement. Historically, both-hot fires a 20-day buy signal: SPY +1.44% (69% win rate), QQQ +2.67% (81% win rate, p=0.006). Agreement means the inflation regime is consistent. The market can price a consistent regime. What it can't price is CPI hot / PPI cold or vice versa. That's the noise that breaks positioning.
The gamma structure confirms. Net GEX surged to +$1.46B, within 3% of the all-time high. The 7,500 max magnet carries +$202M, the largest single-strike reading of the entire series. The center of gravity shifted to 7,572, 1.7% above spot, the most bullish skew we've recorded. 9 of the top 10 volume GEX strikes were positive. Call buying was concentrated at 7,500 (+$97M), 7,515 (+$97M), and 7,450 (+$67M). The market absorbed the inflation prints and immediately positioned for 7,500.
Volume P/C normalized from yesterday's record 1.59 to 1.08. The panic hedging from CPI unwound in a single session. ATM IV held at 15.4%, no vol expansion. The market priced the inflation as known and moved on.
Tomorrow is the last trading day before the cliff. If Trump secures a commitment on Iranian oil, that's structurally deflationary and gives the gamma a reason to hold through OPEX. If the summit stalls, the market enters Friday's OPEX with headline uncertainty and a thinning blanket.
The positive gamma above spot is the cleanest we've ever published. Every strike from 7,300 to 7,800 is positive. The magnets ladder from 7,400 (+$89M) through 7,450 (+$116M), 7,500 (+$202M), 7,600 (+$81M), 7,700 (+$51M), 7,800 (+$42M). There's no accelerator above spot until 7,755. The grind continues as long as the gamma holds.
$SPX $SPY

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@TicTocTick I don't pay for $sex
...this market fu(ks me plenty already.
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@DailyIranNews Neat…Iran hasn’t been able to land any real hits. This is nothing but noise.
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@jkloc420 @zerohedge I know THEY don’t care, but they’re overwhelmingly under educated zealots.
there are reasonable alternatives for disabling those ships without blasting holes in them.
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@NeverSayKry @zerohedge Yea they care so much about the environment over there
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More "Love Taps"? US Reportedly Struck 4 Iranian Tankers As Qatari LNG Tanker Traverses Strait zerohedge.com/geopolitical/q…
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@zerohedge Recent satellite imagery showed at least a few of those 4 tankers that were leaking oil. They were likely empty (hopefully)
If a loaded tanker is struck, a 1-million barrel spill akin to the gulf war spill in ‘91 would have significant consequences in the region.
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@zerohedge Looks like it’s shaping up to be an ecological disaster too…but new ATH’s probably coming still.
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@BullTheoryio @grok Does Iran possess the submersible capability to achieve this objective if they decide to proceed?
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BREAKING: Iran may be preparing to put a toll booth on the internet.
Tehran is reportedly considering moves to control undersea internet cables crossing the Strait of Hormuz - forcing foreign companies to seek permits, pay fees, and operate under Iranian rules.
They carry an estimated 15–20% of global internet and financial data traffic linking Europe, Gulf countries and Asia while powering banking systems, cloud networks, AI infrastructure and international markets.
$10 trillion in daily financial transactions travel globally across 1.5 million kilometers of submarine cables.
Analysts warn that tighter control or disruption could slow global internet traffic, pressure financial systems and create new geopolitical leverage for Iran.
This war is no longer just about oil tankers crossing Hormuz, It is becoming a digital chokepoint too.



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@midascabal I’d be happy if the AI abundance narrative was true and it very likely will be *eventually*
But there are too many symptoms that warrant a healthy pullback.
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cnbc.com/2026/05/09/cap…
Don’t panic everyone. The bank isn’t worried about that thing you need to live and work costing more.
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Jay retweetledi

@TiffanyFong @AOC She’s insufferable, please keep reminding her of that.
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@assface_burner The market can remain unreasonable far longer than you can.
Just hold your nose and buy, pussy.
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Jay retweetledi

Earnings Monday pre-market…this one is sus.
Buying a couple lottos $KEEL
Flow God@FL0WG0D
$KEEL - $98K Call buyer
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