New Dimension
1.5K posts
Yes, I need to make sure SpaceX stays focused on making life multiplanetary and extending consciousness to the stars, not pandering to someone’s bullshit quarterly earnings bonus! Obviously, IF SpaceX succeeds in this absurdly difficult goal, it will be worth many orders of magnitude more than the economy of Earth, but don’t expect entirely smooth sailing along the way.
There's probably no topic I hate more than Tesla Twitterverse drama, but I have been a bit triggered by the disagreements between @TeslaBoomerMama and @bradsferguson recently. Here's my unedited take.
We’ve said a lot about the Tesla–SpaceX merger idea lately, so here’s one final thought for now: Tesla shareholders have waited years for autonomy value to show up. If Tesla gets folded into SpaceX before that happens… who actually benefits? @bradsferguson breaks it down. 👇
A Tesla–SpaceX merger might make sense someday. But the sequence matters. If Tesla proves out Robotaxi, gets Optimus moving, and forces the market to finally price it like an autonomy/AI company, the merger math could look very different. New video 👇
If @Tesla & @SpaceX merge, there will be a very intense shareholder vote to get this approved Here's my 2 cents & how I'm voting. Yes. Whatever Elon & management say is fair, is a yes from me. Why? Tesla & SpaceX are valued at roughly $1.5T & $1.75T respectively. If SpaceX buys Tesla (makes sense because of Elon's dual voting class shares), maybe they do it a ~20% premium to $1.5T and make it a 50/50 merger of equals. Tesla shareholders will complain about not getting compensated for @robotaxi success, @Tesla_Optimus, etc ... But the truth is, both companies are very similar in size with parrelel upside trajectories. Additionally, they are joined at the hip with Elon leading them both and the Terafab project. Tesla is a ~$100B revenue run-rate, barely growing, valued at nearly 20X sales in this merger... extremely high for a low gross margin company. Giving $TSLA arguably ~$1T of value based on future product lines that aren't material yet SpaceX is a $25B revenue run-rate company with @Starlink already 0 to 1 poised to hit a $30-40B revenue run-rate in the next 18 months. With MUCH HIGHER profitability than Tesla's current business. That means even thought Tesla has 4X the revenue of SpaceX, it's profitability is actually equal in size. When I look at the intrinsic earnings power ($15B of operating cashflow/yr) of Tesla & SpaceX they are actually very similar. With each of them spending all their operating cash flow and more on CAPEX for future projects (including @Xai in SpaceX). Each getting a very aggressive valuation based on future growth prospects. It's almost impossible to predict how the earnings/cashflow will evolve. Especially because a lot of it depends on accounting and how the Terafab/Optimi in Space is structured. Long story short, it's very complicated, and millions of hot take articles will be written about it ... but all in all, a merger of equals, or roughly that, looks fair to me. Another kicker to consider and why I'm voting yes. I trust Elon to do right by shareholders. $TSLA is up 34,687% since it's 2010 IPO, not bad. Tesla has a management team with a track record of making crazy ambitious goals and executing. They're vision for an intergalactic future gets even grander as a combined entity with SpaceX. Let them cook. Full disclaimer I'm a $TSLA & SpaceX investor.
Holy smokes unsupervised Robotaxi ramping quicker and quicker every time I look at it
