@ollirehn "Do I need to remind us that the ECB’s two subsequent rate hikes of spring 2011 were reversed in November and December 2011?"
suomenpankki.fi/fi/ajankohtais…
English
Nicolas Goetzmann
8.7K posts
Nicolas Goetzmann
@NicolasGoetzman
Recherche Macro. @FinCite Compte personnel
Paris, France Katılım Aralık 2013
935 Takip Edilen4.1K Takipçiler
Germany — 7-year stagnation in core private domestic demand (real private domestic final purchases).
Q4’18 → Q4’25: +0.08%.
English
« Chinese imports to the euro zone are up by 27% in volume terms since the start of 2024, with prices down by 8%, Panetta said, adding that this was driving down the price of goods exposed to Chinese competition »
reuters.com/world/china/ec…
English
Nicolas Goetzmann retweetledi
France and Germany are carving up the ECB: @LionelRALaurent & @marcusashworth bloomberg.com/opinion/articl… via @opinion
English
While NGDP is above 8%, nominal PDFP is 6.2%—strong, but not exceptional, i.e. below Q2 2019, right when the Fed pivoted to cuts.
Greg Ip@greg_ip
"The Federal Reserve has cut rates only a handful of times when nominal growth was greater than 8 per cent and most of those instances were in the 1970s." Richard Bernstein @RBAdvisors in the FT ft.com/content/94112b…
English
The Global Trade Effects of the AI Infrastructure Boom
"The U.S. leads globally in terms of the AI infrastructure build-out and planned investments, followed by China, with other economies, notably Europe, lagging"
federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/…
English
Weak private demand is the core problem—tied to weak productivity (Draghi). Strip out the noise (Ireland’s MNE distortions, NGEU one-offs) and focus on the core euro area (FR+DE): the ECB tightening cycle is hard to miss. Core private domestic demand is the adjustment margin.
Isabel Schnabel 🇪🇺🇺🇦@Isabel_Schnabel
The key shortfall is a sustained weakness in domestic demand. Since 1999 real private consumption in Germany has grown by less than 1% per year. Domestic investment remained subdued as well. This is mirrored in the sharp rise in Germany’s current account surplus. 15/20
English
@fipaddict Si vous regardez les projections BDF, vous verrez que les anticipations du taux 10 ans reste ancrées au dessus de la croissance nominale sur tout l’horizon. Effet boule de neige constant.
Français
@NicolasGoetzman On anticipe pas de remontée des taux courts susceptible de justifier la prévision sauf erreur ?
Français
Nicolas Goetzmann retweetledi
The day wouldn't be complete without another profound & insightful Kevin Warsh commentary. All kidding aside, Warsh's life is going to be very complicated and not just because of Trump.👇👇👇
omfif.org/2026/02/no-eas…
English
Nicolas Goetzmann retweetledi
New episode! Scott Sumner on Monetary Policy Confusion in Our Current Policy Debates
Scott lays out for @DavidBeckworth why people have been reversing the cause and effect of the eurozone crisis.
English
Can This Man Save the Federal Reserve? politi.co/3LKgRYq via @politico
English
Nicolas Goetzmann retweetledi
#Germany's attitude gives the impression that competition is no longer with #China, but within the eurozone itself: relative advantage is being built up vis-à-vis European partners, not vis-à-vis Beijing - @NicolasGoetzman op-ed @LesEchos
lesechos.fr/idees-debats/e…
English
Nicolas Goetzmann retweetledi
#FF
@LiveSquawk
@Fredgenta
@neilksethi
@VMRConstancio
@OliverRakau
@NCheron_bourse
@agnostoxxx
@fastrevealnews
@MikaelSarwe
@enlundm
@Newsquawk
@ForexLive
@dlacalle_IA
@vtchakarova
@AnilVohra1962
@GFXFTs
@Sino_Market
@fxmacro
@PiQSuite
@MikeZaccardi
@NicolasGoetzman
@Mayhem4Markets
@CryptoeconRyan
QME
Nicolas Goetzmann retweetledi
La réaction européenne se fait attendre. Encore une fois, la France est un peu seule...
lesechos.fr/monde/europe/l…
Français
Tribune pour Le Monde
L’économie française est soumise à la politique monétaire la plus restrictive du monde occidental
Français
Nicolas Goetzmann retweetledi
Europe is now as worried by China's growing surplus as the US -- maybe more so, as Trump tends to think only in bilateral terms.
This should be an opportunity for creative US international economic diplomacy ... but am not seeing it
Nicolas Goetzmann@NicolasGoetzman
The U.S. Must Put Pressure on China to Let the Yuan Strengthen Europe has borne the brunt of China’s ever-widening trade surplus. The U.S. should join in efforts to respond. by @Brad_Setser thewirechina.com/2025/12/14/the…
English