NikkeiFlow

HIP-4 update. This one is big. Hyperliquid just removed the need for external oracles on prediction markets. The validator set itself is now the oracle. The same 24 validators that sign blocks every 70ms, secure $3B+ in deposits, and vote bridge withdrawals now deploy and settle prediction markets natively. Automated newsfeed software running as part of regular chain operations. Deployment and resolution through onchain validator vote. No Chainlink. No Pyth. No UMA. No third party. Closed circuit. Polymarket uses UMA. Kalshi is centralized. Hyperliquid just made real-world event resolution a native chain function. Hyperliquid.

SEDA is heavily entering the pre-ipo market next week. A full circle moment, 7 years later.

🚨 Another 1.02M $SEDA (~36k$) just moved from treasury and immediately voted YES on Proposal 107. Could this be related to what Jasper mentioned about funding in this post? 🧐

Chamath Palihapitiya just described what happens to the entire tech sector the moment OpenAI and Anthropic go public. Not a correction. A verdict. Chamath: “Nobody in the history of the world has ever seen two businesses like this at this scale.” Not the dot-com era. Not mobile. Not cloud. Not crypto. Nothing in the history of venture capital has assembled this much value, this fast. Chamath: “These are trillion-dollar companies. They both are. And they both deserve to be.” He is not speculating. He is closing the debate. Two companies. Both trillion-dollar entities. Both built in under a decade. Both converging on the same IPO window. When they arrive, they will not simply absorb capital. They will decide where every dollar in the sector is allowed to flow. Chamath: “The tech sector P/E is going to shrink faster, in my opinion, than non-tech P/E.” That inverts every consensus assumption in the room. The prevailing thesis is that AI benefits tech first. AI rises. Tech sector wins. Chamath is saying the opposite. AI does not lift the sector. AI eats it from inside. Chamath: “It will eliminate, cannibalize, and erode most of the moats that support this differential trading.” Three verbs. Eliminate. Cannibalize. Erode. He chose all three because one was not violent enough. For twenty years, software companies commanded premium multiples because they had moats. Proprietary code. Switching costs. Network effects. Data advantages. AI dissolves all of it. When an intelligence that compounds every ninety days can replicate your entire product stack at a fraction of the cost, your moat is not a moat. It is a trench your competitor crosses in a single quarter. The market is still pricing software companies as if that defensibility holds for fifteen years. Chamath just cut the window to five or six. Chamath: “I’ll buy the first five or six years of this story, but I’m not buying year 15 of this anymore.” That is a Wall Street death sentence written in plain English. Every SaaS company trading at 20x revenue on the assumption of a long runway just had that runway cut by two-thirds. Not because their product failed. Because three companies are about to make the entire software category irrelevant. OpenAI. Anthropic. SpaceX. When those three hit the public market, capital does what capital always does. It consolidates around certainty. When the highest-conviction bet available is general intelligence itself, every other software company becomes a rounding error. Capital does not slowly migrate. It floods. Institutions do not politely trim their mid-tier SaaS exposure. They dump it. They redeploy everything into the three companies that now control the direction of the entire industry. The companies left behind do not gradually decline. Their multiples compress. Their valuations crater. Their ability to raise capital, retain talent, or execute a meaningful acquisition evaporates inside a single earnings cycle. Chamath: “These software businesses are going to approach the rest of the non-tech P/E… it’s going to be nasty.” Tech companies valued like tech companies for two decades are about to be valued like everyone else. Not a market correction. The moment Wall Street strips the software sector of its premium and never gives it back. Three companies absorbed the premium. The rest of the sector gets the invoice.

Strongly believe that most L2s will move to an enterprise SaaS revenue model. Instead of fee sharing and licensing, they'll sell annual contracts that resemble enterprise software. This also means user acquisition isn't important for them anymore. It's a B2B game now.