Walking Eye 🇪🇺 🇫🇷@eye_walking
I’ve been watching Ukraine’s drone production curve for two years, and the 2026 numbers just crossed a structural threshold.
In February 2022, Ukraine produced 3,000 drones, 99% of them imported from China as complete systems. By 2023 the curve crossed 800,000, then 2.2 million in 2024, more than 4 million in 2025, and the 2026 target now sits at 7 million units with capacity to scale to 10 million.
That output is roughly 70 times current US combat drone production (Bloomberg, January 2026), and assembly is now 99% domestic. Monthly FPV output went from 20,000 in summer 2024 to over 200,000 in 2025. The largest producers (Ukraine has no traditional defense primes) build tens of thousands of units per month inside underground bunker factories at SpaceX Starlink scale.
My read: the center of European military industrial gravity has shifted 1,200 km east of Berlin since 2022, while EU defense planning still procures as if it has not. That gap is going to become a strategic liability if it is not closed within the next 24 months.