@policytensor What, in your opinion, would constitute Iran pushing too hard?
English
adam
36 posts
One reason for Iran to value an accord with the US, not an altogether secondary one, is that it confers great power status.
For diplomatists and diplomatic historians less enamored with hard power, it has always been the recognition by other great powers that has conferred great power status. Indeed, that is why the rise of the great powers is dated to the peace, not the military victory. And recognition by no other power in the system can confirm Iran’s great power status as recognition by the United States can.
What needs to happen for this to obtain? A declaration by the US is not required. What is required is that the Islamabad Accord reflect mutual accommodation and respect for core interests.
Pape thinks the US cannot take this loss. I don’t think it has a choice anymore. As long as the Iranians don’t push too hard, we should have this wrapped up.
Policy Tensor@policytensor
There’s no getting around the fact that the fundamental American error was groupthink about Iranian strength. From Caine to the last newspaperman, everyone thought that Iran was weak and could be crushed in short order. This failure is why it is so important to recognize the fact that Iran has been proven to be a great power. You can call it a lesser great power. But that’s just nitpicking. In the entire history of the West since at least the Peace of Westphalia, great powers have been recognized, in the final analysis, based on the test of the battlefield. There has been no disagreement on the ultimate test, even if ex ante definitions and lists drawn up by scholars have varied. What does it mean to say that Iran is a great power? — It means that militarily subduing Iran is a hard problem and at best a very costly affair for even the strongest of powers. — It means that you leave Iran out of calculations at your own risk; you have to pay attention to how they will respond on a question of great interest to them. — It means that Iran is an important alliance partner: that the loss of Iran to the anti-systemic coalition is much more serious than previously believed. — It means that Iran is capable of pursuing a truly independent line in defiance of the other great powers. At the end of the day, labels are irrelevant. What matters is the calculations and response functions wrt Iran. — If Vance is feeling the heat and has to make concessions, Iran is being recognized as a great power. — If the US is forced to coerce Israel to stop in order to persuade Iran to reopen Hormuz, Iran is being recognized as a great power. — If Western economic war planners have to face the fact that they don’t have the power to strangle Iran without a painful response, Iran is being recognized as a great power. — If the peace settlement reflects core interests of Iran and the powers feel great pressure to stick to it, Iran is being recognized as a great power. Ultimately, what matters in our barbaric straight power world that Miller announced, is how the powers deal with Iran. If they behave respectfully, Iran is being recognized as a great power.
English
Skys military analyst: "At the moment we subscribe to intl law, & at the moment theres no discrimination between the country carrying out the act & somebody supporting them. You're both.. culpable"
The host muddies the waters. Questions about legality, she says. No. Its illegal.
English
@MatthewTorbitt No way in hell will Streeting be PM. He isn't likeable. People won't vote for him. The best thing Labour could do is change the voting system now to stop the far right, but they won't because they are blind to how fucked they are.
English
@grok @DovForman @gmcuk Would you agree that the above video leaves the impression that the paediatrician advocated for the gassing of jews? Does the video lack proper context and is therefore likely to leave viewers with a false impression of what exactly occurred?
English
Yes, the UK's General Medical Council (GMC) issued only a formal warning to Dr. Martin Whyte, an NHS paediatrician, for his 2018 tweet stating "hahaha zeig heil hahaha gas the jews hahaha just kidding" while mocking a Holocaust denier. The tribunal found his conduct regrettable but not seriously impairing his fitness to practice medicine. Critics argue this lenient outcome fails to deter antisemitic rhetoric among professionals.
English
@HeidiBachram "Prisoners" in the photos are women and children. You display deranged inhumanity for all to see.
English
The pro-Pals are using a red ribbon for prisoners in Israel, mimicking the yellow ribbon for the hostages. They really have no original ideas and just copy us in the most grotesque way. I despise them.
English
@richardpbacon @SangitaMyska @DannyCohen Wouldn't you need to divide that 33 by the number of dead on each side? I get your point but the picture is even more horrific than you suggest.
English
Does @DannyCohen think its impartiality failures are because, according to the Centre for Media Monitoring, the BBC gave 33x more prominence to Israeli deaths than Palestinian deaths?
Sky News@SkyNews
"It's a catastrophic failure which has been revealed." Former director of BBC Television @DannyCohen tells @JonathanSamuels that there have been "significant failings" on impartiality at the BBC and it is "right" that Tim Davie has resigned. Read more 🔗 trib.al/52LYKFU
English
ChatGPT + Laptop + Internet + 1 Hour a Day = $250 Daily
Normally, I charge $67 for this guide.
𝐖𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐡 $67, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐟𝐫𝐞𝐞 𝐭𝐨𝐝𝐚𝐲!
Like this post and comment Al - I'll send you my ultimate guide directly.
(Available free for 24 hours. Must follow to receive the DM.)
English
@Kahlissee See what he says on Venezuela and Cuba? He just wants to tinker in policy within the framework of empire. He's no socialist. Give him time and he'll be another great disappointment.
English
As soon as we are in power this evil and her kin are going home.
We will declare war on far-left extremism.
Fiona Lali@fiona_lali
108 years ago today, the Russian revolution changed the world! Lenin and the Bolsheviks achieved the IMPOSSIBLE and the ruling class have never forgiven them. YOU SHOULD BE A COMMUNIST.
English
@grok @ITS_THE_J3WS @Kahlissee So in Israel, an adult of any age can have sex with a 16 year old child without any legal consequence? List other countries where this is also the case.
English
Not one single Maccabi Tel Aviv fan will be at the match tomorrow.
I was told by multiple MPs that this was about "hooliganism" and "safety". So what exactly are they protesting at this point? The presence of Israeli football players?
This country is going to shit.
English
@DollidarityArmy She is figuratively sitting her bath while soaking it up.
English
Sarah Vine is as dumb as having a shit after you've just got out of the bath.
Sarah Vine@WestminsterWAG
@selpaarts I am not an expert on the region - but will do what I can.
English
