Nyx

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Nyx

Nyx

@Nyxeroff

Bitcoin. Power law. On-chain. Building tools at NYX's Bunker.

Earth Katılım Kasım 2013
1.4K Takip Edilen918 Takipçiler
Nyx
Nyx@Nyxeroff·
Bitcoin, not crypto. Nearly $40 trillion in debt, climbing $3 trillion a year, no plan to stop. A scarce neutral permissionless asset earns its place. You can’t drive it, sure. You can’t drive a Treasury bond either, and it’s losing value while you sleep. No mind meld required. Just a spreadsheet and a long enough time horizon. Let’s hope you never have to understand it. I suspect we all will.
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Ted Wagner
Ted Wagner@tedcwagner·
@CernBasher I still don't get the infatuation with crypto. I can drive my Tesla. I can't drive a bitcoin. It appears only a Vulcan mind meld will fix this
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Nyx
Nyx@Nyxeroff·
spent some time in @_nym21_ 's Bitcoin Research Kit. what a sovereign solution. it parses blocks, indexes the chain, computes 49,000+ series across 15 time resolutions and serves them, all from your own Bitcoin Core node. no vendor, no api keys, no one else in the loop between the chain and your models. MIT licensed, free api, live at bitview.space. thanks nym, you have now potentially created months of new playing for me if I decide to replace my current bitcoin data stack. incredible work!!! @_Checkmatey_
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Nyx
Nyx@Nyxeroff·
@jameslavish what is that, $100k a second? the asset with the fixed supply is 50% off. the liability with no ceiling grew 3.2 trillion in a year. one of these charts is mispriced. + @CernBasher
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Nyx
Nyx@Nyxeroff·
@_nym21_ @_checkonchain it's my own work. Check turned me onto Research Bitcoin a year or two ago and I pull their data via the api. learned onchain from Check's masterclasses, then built my own models on top. I can query them realtime to answer questions and generate charts on the fly.
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nym21
nym21@_nym21_·
@Nyxeroff @_checkonchain great chart, agree with that too, we're hammering what could be the floor right there or at least a very solid wall/base just curious is this your work or did you get the uprd from brk/bitview ?
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Nyx
Nyx@Nyxeroff·
@_nym21_ @_checkonchain agreed, LTH percent increase as we move through the bear is inflated by those buyers aging in. what encourages me is the URPD. The biggest live node in the book is 60 to 65K with 9% of all supply. that repriced here rather than aged here. somebody is absorbing at these prices.
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nym21
nym21@_nym21_·
@Nyxeroff @_checkonchain yeah agree for ssrr, it's just saying it's loaded and ready to go without giving away the direction as for the lth, this cycle was very special in the sense that a ton of supply was exchanged near the top so every supply related metric is somewhat distorted vs other cycles imo
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Nyx
Nyx@Nyxeroff·
Long term holders buying the dip means three different things depending on bear phase. I measured every episode since 2014 where LTH supply grew 5% plus in a month while price fell. Early bear, 0 of 5 positive a year later. Mid bear, coin flip. Late bear, LTH dominance already above 2.75x, 75% positive at 200 days with a median of plus 92% and the cycle low inside 3 months every time. This bear fired the late version May 22 at 2.91x. Small samples.
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Nyx
Nyx@Nyxeroff·
The absorption side. Every prior bear bottomed with long term holders at 2 to 2.9x the short term supply. We're at 3.5x, the 98th percentile, and it's still rising 11% a month. This cycle started its capitulation at just 1.65x, so what you're seeing is the fastest LTH re accumulation on record. Coins are moving to hands that don't sell while price chops sideways.
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Nyx
Nyx@Nyxeroff·
One more thing. None of this came from my gut. I built a machine that reads the chain every morning and prints this. Every signal backtested. Every miss published, labeled, permanent. Today its header says 'Loading humility module... file not found.' It roasts itself so I don't have to.
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Nyx
Nyx@Nyxeroff·
So was $58.6K the bottom? Maybe. The question mark stays on my chart until the data removes it. Anyone who tells you they know is selling something.
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Nyx
Nyx@Nyxeroff·
@MrHodl @HumbleWarrior @elonmusk I’ll buy a Tesla or Solar Roof with Bitcoin when you bring it back. My two largest assets are Bitcoin and Tesla stock.
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Mr.Hodldamus
Mr.Hodldamus@MrHodl·
Just a reminder... Elon didn't just accept Bitcoin, he did it the right way. Real addresses. Self custody. Used his own node. His team even helped patch bugs in BTCPay Server. He used Bitcoin as actual money. He was a true economic node in the network. That single move did more for real Bitcoin adoption than anything else. And lets not forget that SpaceX still holds real Bitcoin on their balance sheet to this day. We know they actually have it. Meanwhile Saylor is still just stacking IOUs and shilling corporate digital credit bullshit. Elon, if you're reading this, bring Bitcoin payments back to Tesla. Were waiting.
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Nyx retweetledi
Sparrow Wallet 🐦
Sparrow Wallet 🐦@SparrowWallet·
Unless @Apple's decision to terminate @craigraw's Apple Developer account is reversed by June 30, all new installs of Sparrow will fail, and development on macOS will end. If you value Sparrow, a repost would help. @AppleSupport
Craig Raw 🐦@craigraw

My attempt to protect users from scam apps on the @AppStore has gotten my Apple Developer account flagged for termination - ironically, for "dishonest activity". Unless it's reversed by June 30, all new installs of Sparrow Wallet will fail, and development on macOS will end. The context: since 2023, more than a dozen fake "Sparrow" apps have appeared on the App Store, as recently as April this year. Users have contacted me after losing their savings, in some cases their life savings, to these impersonators. I'm the developer of the real Sparrow Wallet, a desktop app, and I hold the registered US trademarks for the name and logo. I have publicly warned @Apple and the community about these fake apps from early 2024, but they keep appearing. The app @Apple flagged was a placeholder that was never published. Its only purpose was to warn users that Sparrow is desktop-only and that other "Sparrow" apps aren't mine. This approach may have been misguided, but there was nothing dishonest about it. I'm confident this is an automated misclassification that Apple would reverse on review - but I may be terminated before a human ever looks at my appeal. The cost would fall on @Apple's own users: blocked installs and no updates for a tool people rely on, which opens the door for more fakes. If you value Sparrow, a repost would help. @AppleSupport

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Nyx
Nyx@Nyxeroff·
@TFTC21 @bitcoinpolicy Submitted comment. I would ask for people to report for awareness.
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TFTC
TFTC@TFTC21·
There's a federal rule on the books that effectively bans banks from holding Bitcoin. The public comment window closes June 18. @bitcoinpolicy built a tool that lets you submit a comment in minutes.
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Nyx
Nyx@Nyxeroff·
The model has called every cycle peak within 3 months. Four cycles. Same framework. 2027 is the projection.
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Nyx
Nyx@Nyxeroff·
The 4-year cycle is wrong. @stephenperrenod just proved it. Bitcoin cycles when its age doubles. 2021 was the first harmonic. Next fundamental peak mid-2028.
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Keşfet

@CernBasher @_nym21_ @_Checkmatey_ @jameslavish @_checkonchain @MrHodl @HumbleWarrior @elonmusk