escaped

@policytensor And if they did, the damage the US could do would make them back down. That was also wrong. Regardless of precision, they also seem to have badly underestimated Iran's missile stocks and over estimated the amount of damage they had done to it in the past

@policytensor Does this even matter for holding hormuz though? Or the fact that Iran has been able to absorb so much of the US's missile inventory? I feel like the thing that the US and Israel got wrong was they didn't believe Iran would even make an attempt to close the strait

An important technical reason why experts were sanguine about the military challenge posed by Iran is that, even as late as five years ago, Iranian missiles were thought to be too inaccurate to pose a significant threat. The only missile capable of reaching rear area bases in central Saudi Arabia, Israel and Jordan was the Shahab-3, which had a CEP of 2.5 km. All of this changes very dramatically and very rapidly. Especially with MaRV, the CEPs of Iranian MRBMs fall from >1 km to 300m and even down to 10m. The Israelis have been freaking out about the Khorramshahr, a powerful, highly accurate missile with a CEP of 30m. So Iran has very recently joined the ranks of the great missile powers. And this development was not fully anticipated or digested by the community of defense experts. To be sure, everyone knew Iranian strike capabilities were increasing. But it seems clear from my readings that the rapidity at which the balance of power was moving in Iran’s favor came as a surprise to pretty much everyone in the expert community. An important lesson of this failure is that technical and force developments can be particularly rapid in the new missile age, and almost all of them move the balance against the distant power and in favor of the situated state. This was the mechanical process that transitioned the world from a unipolar to a multipolar one in a purely military sense in the space of less than a decade. All these idiots who want an arms race and a cold war with China are just poorly informed about the real prospects for the future balance of power, which are uniformly poor and cannot be reversed.

@d08890 Producing human like subjective experiences, and it doesn't seem to make sense to infer one from the other. The llms were built to produce human like outputs. So that seems to be the explanation for why they do -there is no need to jump to "they must have a subjective experience"

@d08890 In their own subject experience, (i am conscious, so I assume others are) rather than an evaluation of other people with no reference to yourself. Obviously when looking at non-people we need a new benchmark, but while llm produce human like answers, that is very different than..

@souljagoyteller White Fragility

These can be either an ur-text, exemplars of the term, or just notable essays by notable people. I feel there isn’t a canon of what 2010s wokeness was yet, so I’d like help going through the muck

Writing a piece about what “wokeness” was, and asking my followers for help: what would you guys say were the key defining documents of both Wokeness and Anti-Wokeness? I’d prefer textual sources, but visual/musical sources are fine too

@Jonpy99 Looking at where the buildings are, aren't they just a bit to the right of your circle? Above the second pair of buildings

@Udders38 @ActualNames1 In 100% of these cases it is Denis but a computer turning hand written records into text read the D as a P

@ActualNames1 It's enough to find someone with the surname Penis, but Fanny as well... 😭

Fanny Penis

@MattZeitlin Opposition to Vietnam came from the draft. Russia soldiers are all highly paid volunteers

Obviously it’s authoritarian but what’s the level of domestic opposition in Russia (if any) to the war, there’s already several times for casualties than the US suffered in Vietnam and Iraq

@JosephPolitano Trudeau and Trump also spoke this morning, but apparently it didn't go as well (Trump has started talking about Canadian Bank regulations, a new issue). But they are due to talk again at 3pm est.

Would expect a similar announcement from the Canadians soon, where tariffs always made even less sense. Possible we’ll get something similar with the Chinese, but significantly less likely.

🚨President Sheinbaum announces tariffs have been “paused” for a month after her conversation with Trump today

@mattyglesias Obama said he was against gay marriage, but everyone on the left assumed he was lying. Republicans also generally believe their candidates are lying about all the parts they don't like. It doesn't seem like dems can pull this off now.

@EricDLombardi @DrCameronMurray All of those property taxes wiild need to be paid even if they didn't build the unit, so I don't think they should be included

I will never understand how people can believe that $250-300K in taxes on every new home in Canada doesn’t have an impact on prices or supply? The mental gymnastics of municipal brain will never cease to astound me.

@HonestRepCanada You are genocidal monsters

🚨 Oct 7, 2023 was the deadliest day for Jews since the Holocaust & a massacre that kicked off a year of war between Iran’s proxies & Israel. But according to articles in a group of student campus newspapers, Hamas’ genocidal crimes are but a sidenote. honestreporting.ca/campus-newspap…

@astronomy89 @owenjonesjourno @HJS_Org CT scans are 2mm thick

@owenjonesjourno @HJS_Org Lies. No bullet deformation. No trauma. Why are you such a liar?

He's using the X-ray of a Palestinian child shot in the head, which was published in the New York Times. He thinks this is funny. Andrew Fox is a former Sandhurst lecturer and paratrooper - and a Research Fellow at the @HJS_Org.

@MazMHussain I think this has more to do with India's current strong anti muslim animus

@MoreHomesHRM Also, why Frost?

Some endorsements for the next election: District 5 - Sam Austin District 7- Laura White District 8 - Jon Frost District 16 - Anita Kirkbride More are TBD

@MoreHomesHRM Why Laura white? She has so many red flags. First version of her website didn't even mention housing or homelessness and now it still says it's a provincial responsibility, parks are for the public (I.e. not campers). Climate seems to be her personal big issue

@CatEmporor @MenchOsint No, they knew well in advance, US said strike was imminent. All Israel's tankers were in the air, and I'm sure the rest of their aircraft were too

@MenchOsint I mean, I don't think they got away with majority of its planes , this missiles reached pretty fast from "iran launched" to first hits was 6 min?

"The airbase is gone" (sound on)

@adamjohnsonCHI That Biden is choosing to ignore the fact that Israel deserves to become a pariah state is, of course, henious

@adamjohnsonCHI Most charitable argument I think is that Biden's primary goal is actually to keep Israel from becoming a pariah state. He may be mad that Netanyahu is not making that easy, but doing what it would take to stop him would be counter to his primary goal in the end anyway

I have never been a “debate me” guy before but I genuinely want to debate an adult human in Sept 2024 who genuinely believes Biden/Harris are seeking a ceasefire in good faith, who actually think Biden is fuming behind closed doors. I need to probe their minds, it’s baffling.