OnchainEconomist

I’ve been farming Polymarket rewards since October. LP rewards. Maker rebates. The 4% program. So I built a tool to see where I actually stand — against every other wallet doing the same. 364k wallets ranked. On-chain data only. 🧵

@bryan_johnson @oscarzsm

This new perspective study reports that our brains are carrying 3,000x more microplastic than our blood. Microplastic burden of the human brain rose ~50% between 2016 and 2024. The average brain now carries roughly: > 11x the load of the liver > 11x the kidney, and on a per-mass basis around > 3,000x the concentration found in circulating blood (on a per-mass basis) This study argues that eliminating ultra-processed foods (i.e. chicken mcnuggets, breaded shrimp) carries an additional benefit: reducing brain microplastic accumulation. This is based on an inferred chain of mechanisms rather than proven causality in humans, yet the convergence is striking. The paper outlines four pathways through which microplastics plausibly damage the brain: > oxidative stress and chronic inflammation > endocrine disruption > gut-microbiome injury > and vascular damage. These map onto various brain and mental diseases including: depression, anxiety, cognitive decline, stroke, dementia. The same conditions are independently linked to ultra-processed food consumption in large prospective cohorts Each 10% increase in ultra processed food intake > 25% higher dementia risk > 16% higher cognitive impairment risk > 8% higher stroke risk High versus low ultra processed food consumption tracks with 44% higher odds of depression and 48% higher odds of anxiety. While we do not yet have a human study showing UPF intake directly raises brain microplastic burden. Here is what we do have: A study found that the more processed forms of protein foods carry significantly more microplastic particles. > Chicken nuggets contained 31x more microplastics per gram than raw chicken breast (least processed item in the study) > Breaded shrimp, the most processed item in the study, carried ~130x the level in raw chicken breast (caveat: shrimp also carries higher baseline contamination from ocean and water pollution) > A 1,031-woman pregnancy cohort showed each 10% higher UPF intake tracked with 13.1% higher urinary phthalates, the plasticizers that leach from food packaging Microplastics cross from the blood to the brain. Animal research shows mechanistically how microplastic particles do cross the blood-brain barrier. In mice, polystyrene nanoparticles at 293 nm reached the brain within 2 hours of oral exposure. Particles at 1.14 μm and 9.55 μm did not cross at all. While most microscopy-based microplastic tests have a detection floor around 1 μm. The fraction that actually crosses into the brain sits below that threshold. If a test picks up larger particles in your blood, the smaller, BBB-crossing fraction is almost certainly there too, just below the detection window. The big ones are a proxy for the dangerous small ones. Cut all microplastic input where you can and avoid ultra processed foods, this another important one. In addition: use a water filtration system for your drinking water, reverse osmosis with remineralization is the gold standard. I recently reported complete elimination of microplastics from my semen (first in human demonstration) and a 87% reduction in my blood.

@NJr07N @bravadotrade Thanks a lot for the shoutout 🙏 That’s exactly what we’re trying to do, fewer fantasy numbers and more variables you can actually tweak.

Here’s the full list: 1. @OnchainEcon’s calculator → app.strata-terminal.com/polymarket/cal… This one’s my personal favorite. Takes way more variables into account and gives you the closest approximation I’ve seen. 2. @bravadotrade → airdrop.bravadotrade.com A lot of traders are saying this is the most accurate one right now (lowers your expectations a bit 😂), especially if you were early. It has that early-user feature. 3. @polyield_xyz → polyield.xyz/checker Gives you the calc based on total volume, markets traded, first trade & active days. You can even tweak the airdrop pool %, LP rewards and FDV yourself. 4. @Traderibo123’s simulator → traderibo123.github.io/polymarket-air… Clean UI, full tier classification, and you can play with FDV + allocation %. 5. @grazkag ’s tool → checkpoly.vercel.app Shows possible tiers, how many wallets are eligible, and multipliers for profitable traders. useful for the inside scoop.

@polymarket airdrop is gonna be the BIGGEST one this year, no cap🔥 Just checked my allocation on the most accurate calculator I’ve found… 4083 $POLY ≈ $40.8K👀 If you’re wondering what you’re getting, I got you. None of these are official but here’s every checker I tested 👇

Respect for the analysis, but the “100% confident it’s just volume” part is where I’d push back hard. Polymarket already tracks way more than volume (LP rewards, maker rebates, referrals, fees spent…). Why would they build all that infrastructure and then ignore it for the airdrop? And volume alone is the easiest metric to game with wash trading. The bracket 3c-97c filter, holding time, market diversity, redeems, X account linking … If they just rewarded volume, every farmer with $100k and a botted loop would print. They’re smarter than that

Polymarket Airdrop Valuation It’s difficult to establish a valuation for an airdrop when we still don’t know the exact criteria, points system, etc. But I’m 100% confident that the main metric will be volume, so I had several AI models analyze all available and known data, and the results were very interesting. Since there are no visible points, the most likely structure is a tier-based model. Estimated assumptions: • Airdrop allocation: 5–10% (conservative scenarios) • FDV: $10B–$20B With these assumptions, the estimated rewards become very interesting. For example: • $1k–$10k lifetime volume could result in an airdrop between ~$150 (bear case) and ~$800 (bull case). And tbh, there are many markets that are practically resolved where you can still buy the winning side at 99.8–99.9¢. That’s basically: • 0.1–0.2% profit • Almost risk-free volume generation That’s my trick to generate volume. So… do you still think you’re late? 🔗polymarket.com/?r=TomCryptoDe…

Not much, but it's honest work $40 in LP rewards today 🐢 $POLY

@bryan_johnson #VDFAfL0" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/event/will-bry…

@0xd1namit quality data has a cost — it's just a filter to avoid random queries

@OnchainEcon nah i have to sign up to see it

Just tried these Polymarket airdrop checkers I 100% don't think it can be 6 figs for my stats Even if I get the lowest shown here, it would be enough good I guess it can be no more then 10% on drop, FDV will fully depend on TGE timing and market conditions

@FabianoSolana Hey Fabiano, we've added more parameters to Strata since last time — different distribution methods, weighting per reward category, eligibility floors. Worth another look if you want to retest. Any feedback always welcome. app.strata-terminal.com/polymarket/cal…

Most Polymarket Airdrop checkers give pure fantasy numbers I tested all of them and only found 4 that might actually be realistic (see comments)

@corgil If you want a bit more consistency in the numbers, you can try Strata — you can model FDV, distribution method, and weight each reward category yourself. Gives you a clearer range to work with. app.strata-terminal.com/polymarket/cal…

Estimated $POLY airdrop based on 4 trackers I like: 🐳: $500k+ Mid-tier: $150-300k Low tier: $5-30k Math: 5-10% supply, $5-10B FDV Criteria: age, volume, markets, LP If you're new, sign up via: polymarket.com/?r=corgicalls & comment "POLY" below I'll DM you with a simple guide

@FastLife If you want a bit more consistency in the numbers, you can try Strata — you can model FDV, distribution method, and weight each reward category yourself. Gives you a clearer range to work with. app.strata-terminal.com/polymarket/cal…

Maybe I'll go home triumphant one of these days 🙏 (I doubt it) 🔗 x.com/i/status/20548…

@karthicrypto99 Definetely a good one if it becomes real. Which plataform are you using? I use StrataTerminal from @OnchainEcon to calculate mine 🤔

@MarioNawfal Maybe is time to hedge... #bjZXOhA" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/event/hantavir…

🇪🇸 In Tenerife, Spain, hazmat-suited personnel and… a casually-dressed man? Either he has an incredible immune system or everyone else is cosplaying COVID again 😂

@MarioNawfal Free money? #RCF2R3L" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/event/will-tru…

🇺🇸🇨🇳 China sanctioned Marco Rubio twice. Now it has changed the spelling of his name in Chinese just so he can enter the country. - Beijing altered the transliteration of Rubio's surname to bypass its own sanctions, making him the first sanctioned U.S. Secretary of State to visit China - China had previously imposed sanctions on Rubio over his criticism of Beijing's human rights record Source: TRT World

Are prediction markets addictive? Is there such thing as a prediction addiction?

@bryan_johnson #bjZXOhA" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/event/will-bry…

@bryan_johnson When Sex?

I get done each day about 10% of what I imagine when I wake up.

👀👀

Fair attempt to find a middle ground, but giving LPs and sponsors the same 10% slice doesn't really make sense imo. Polymarket is peer-to-peer — you're betting against another user, not against the house. Without LPs there's no liquidity, no order book, no platform. Sponsors add value but they're not what makes the market function. They shouldn't carry the same weight. That said, every weighting is debatable. That's actually why I built a simulator where you can assign whatever % you want to each criterion (LP rewards, volume, maker rebates, sponsors, etc.) and see your own outcome → app.strata-terminal.com/polymarket/cal…

Like I said before, it's impossible to please everyone. I'm basically doing market research on behalf of the @Polymarket team at this point. The LP farmers keep saying they've already earned plenty in LP rewards, yet they still want LP to be the main criterion. Let's solve this differently. Everyone gets their own slice. Carve out 10% of the airdrop pie for LP farmers and 10% for sponsors. If they're not happy with that either, then they're not being genuine :) @mustafap0ly @shayne_coplan @williamlegate

Muy buenos consejos, yo también he tenido malas experiencias con los mercados de deportes. Por cierto, llevo unas semanas construyendo una herramienta para esto mismo — ordenar los mercados con rewards por APR, spread, depth, etc. para no perder tiempo buscando. Y si metes tu wallet, te dice tu posición en los rankings de cada categoría. Si te apetece echarle un vistazo → app.strata-terminal.com/polymarket/rew… PD: la wallet de la captura no es la mía 😅

La mayoría no sabe cómo farmear rewards en Polymarket. En este post, te enseñaré cómo lo hago yo. Como todos sabéis, las rewards pueden funcionar muy bien como filtro o tier a la hora de repartir el airdrop de $POLY. Cada uno tiene su forma de farmearlas y yo uso un sistema en el que no gano mucho pero donde estoy siendo rentable con el paso de las semanas. Estas son mis premisas: 1⃣ Cero deportes. Nunca. Es donde más recompensas hay pero también donde más gente pierde dinero. 2⃣ Filtrar la pestaña rewards por precio. Buscar apuestas a punto de resolverse, ordenadas primero por SÍ y luego por NO clicando dos veces. Ahí es donde generas el dólar mínimo de forma rápida y con poco riesgo. 3⃣ Solo entrar donde paguen más de 10$. Por debajo, el ratio esfuerzo/reward no compensa. 4⃣ Intentar entrar en aquellas donde las shares mínimas sean como mucho 100. Así, si tienes que salirte, pierdes menos. ¿Resultado esta semana aplicando esto? -19,66$ en apuestas porque me cogió una que se fue a 0, pero +28$ en rewards. Resultado positivo mientras dejo huella en el protocolo. Ya supero los 230$ en rewards y los 400 mercados apostados. No soy top 0,1% pero sé que cuando repartan el token.

$2 million for sports liquidity rewards are live for the next couple of weeks 😛 more rewards coming for the rest of the markets polymarket.com/rewards