Orca Mindset

@robert_ivanhoe Sometimes short future traders just hedge themselves by buying call spreads (or similar). How can you be convinced it is a pure bet on the upside of copper prices?

Another 5,000 lots of that Sept call spread (buying $15,500/t call options and selling $17,000/t call options) went through an LME broker earlier today… Extremely bullish

@MFlemming87598 @christankerfund So slow steaming due to higher bunker fuel prices - this in turn cannibalizing older vessel earnings an beneficiary for newbuild?

@OrcaMindset @christankerfund Sorry, maybe this will add some depth?

Capesize rates are Bonkers 🔥 Capesize index: 44,731 (+2342) $SHIP $HSHP $CMBT $SBLK

@MFlemming87598 @christankerfund Thank you for the in-depth explanation :)

@OrcaMindset @christankerfund War :)

@Silver__Santa How about $ATY.V?

#COPPER NEAR ALL TIME HIGH I need more Copper.

@TheApeOfGoldST How can we be certain the apparently "good" result of the MRE is not already priced in and the stock would much rather drop following a worse than expected MRE announcement...

$EQTY.v - Equity Metals Corp Waaaaay to cheap right now for a company that's about to drop a long awaited updated MRE that should show that they have doubled the resource... I expect the updated MRE to drop en of this week or next week. To get $EQTY at $0.300 - Coming from $0.600 three months ago and with the memo around the corner of a potential x2 resource size - Yeah I TAKE IT. I mean, look at this chart on top of it...

@inigoezponda Thanks for the comparism. I agree with your points. I just want to point out that I wouldn't classify $GCC.CN as a pure early stage explorer: They have > 25 drill holes and some meaningful assays. Similar companies with nothing in the ground trade at much higher valuations.

You cannot compare the 2. I still don’t think $GCC.CN is comparable to Fredonia Mining $FRED.V if you look at it from a strictly objective development and risk perspective. $GCC.CN is an early-stage explorer. The company is currently drilling and reporting mineralization, but there is still no defined resource (no MRE). That is a critical point, because until a compliant resource is published, there is no certainty about size, continuity, economics, or even whether the deposit can ultimately be mined. At this stage, geological risk is still very high. It is entirely possible to see encouraging drill results and visible gold, but later fail to define a coherent, economically viable resource. This is a normal outcome in early exploration and is one of the main risks the market prices in. To move forward, $GCC.CN will need to: Continue aggressive drilling Define and publish an initial MRE Advance toward a PEA That process requires significant capital. In practice, this means multiple equity raises and therefore substantial dilution. If you actually account for that future dilution, the “cheap” market cap today becomes less meaningful compared to $FRED.V In fact, if you add the capital they will realistically need to raise to reach a PEA stage and the incredible measured resources comparable to Fredonia Mining, you likely end up with a company valued in a similar range anyway but only after shareholders have been diluted to get there. And on top of that, there is the time factor. Even under optimistic assumptions, you are looking at roughly two years for $GCC.CN to move from early exploration to a developer stage with an MRE and PEA. That is two years of execution risk, financing risk, and geological uncertainty. Meanwhile, Fredonia Mining is already there. The company has around 2.3M AuEq defined, with the majority in Measured and Indicated categories, which is a much more advanced and derisked stage. It is currently trading at roughly ~27M USD market cap, with about 4–5M USD in cash, and is fully funded to complete its PEA and a ~10,000 meter drilling program. That means it can reach its next key milestone without near-term dilution. There is also a very important difference in development and CAPEX implications. Fredonia Mining operates in Argentina in a well-established mining district, with relatively flat terrain and existing nearby infrastructure. That combination typically translates into lower initial CAPEX requirements and a simpler path to construction. On the other hand, $GCC.CN’s project is located in British Columbia, within the Cariboo gold district . While it is a historic mining area, Canada generally involves longer permitting timelines and more complex regulatory processes. This tends to increase both development timelines and capital intensity. Additionally, early-stage projects often lack defined infrastructure at this point, which can further increase CAPEX uncertainty. So when you put everything together: $GCC.CN → early exploration, no MRE, high geological risk, inevitable dilution, ~2 years to reach comparable stage, uncertain CAPEX Fredonia Mining → advanced stage, M&I resources, funded, near-term PEA, lower relative development complexity. No, definitely in my honest opinion is not a cheaper option.

$GCC.CN Gold explorer trading at CA$ 11.5 million market cap. Historical assays available that have shown mineralization. Assays pending, MRE underway. Could be 1Moz gold in the ground. Yet trading at a steep valuation discount ro recent runners like $FRED.V - anyone following?

@Milinkoeterno Golden Cariboo trades at roughly C$13 million market cap (~ 1/3 of $FRED.V). To me thats a huge gap in valuation. Lets see what $GCC.CN recent 750m drill hole assays... MRE shouldn't take too long either. I got in at 6c avg and will continue to hold.

@OrcaMindset We don't yet know the resources available for Golden Cariboo. I think there's a significant gap in development between the two projects, but not as much difference in valuation.

@Alexsei88 Is Vanadium a possible substitution for Tungsten? Defense producers might look at other metals to strengthen their applications

Vanadiinin hinnat jatkavat nousussa niin Kiinassa kuin USA:ssa. Erikoista, että vanadiinia ei ole paljoa hetkauttanut Iranin sota, vaikka muut raaka-aineet ovatkin laskeneet. Mielenkiintoinen viikko jälleen tulossa. #Vanadium 🍀

In addition: Pending drilling results from operator MEGA Resources. The company will conduct further drilling to extend the resource. Moreover they got at least AU$ 2 million in the bank. Compare this one with other companies market caps that are about to start-up production...

$SMS.AX increased my position here again. They got all the approvals. Gold mining to start imminently. Upfront WC is fully financed by Mega Resources (no dilution!). Operator and management own shares for incentivization. All for $10 million USD market cap!

$9130.T - The stock is was talking about here was Kyoei Tanker. Japanese listed company. They operate 6 VLCCs and further mainly have LPG exposure. I don´t know their spot exposure, but someone is heavily buying... @christankerfund @ed_fin @calvinfroedge $FRO $DHT $OET.OL $ECO

Anyone around who has access to Marhelm or similar shipping data on latest fixings for VLCCs? I might have found a listed tanker company with more than 5 VLCCs in it´s fleet trading at a fraction of NAV.

@Silver__Santa Have a look at $GCC.CN. They certainly have more ounces in the ground than their $12.5m CAD market capitalization implies. They announced MRE plans this week too

No sellers, only buyers. Good.

$FRED.V $FREDF - FREDONIA MINING INC. I’ve initiated a starter position in FRED, and there’s a lot to appreciate here. This is a very inexpensive gold explorer operating in a solid jurisdiction in Argentina. The company reports 1.6Moz Au and 49Moz Ag (M&I), high grade, open-pit potential, mineralization open in all directions, and metallurgical recoveries exceeding 90%. The project is located close to AngloGold Ashanti, which is currently facing resource depletion at its nearby operation. Its plant has a 300,000 oz/year capacity but is producing around 180,000 oz/year, creating a potential strategic opportunity if additional resources are needed in the area. With a market cap of roughly C$38M, ounces in the ground are valued at a steep discount — about 5–10x cheaper than peers (see comparative chart). A PEA is expected, and the company has sufficient cash to continue drilling through its planned mid-2026 PEA timeline (likely June). Insider ownership stands at a strong 54%, with notable recent insider buying. The largest shareholder, Ricardo Auriemma, holds 7.5% and is regarded as one of the more influential figures in Argentina’s mining sector. The float is tight, with only 64M shares outstanding. Marketing efforts have been minimal, and the story remains largely undiscovered. If the upcoming PEA confirms a viable operation, the project could potentially support ~150,000 oz/year production over a 10-year mine life with relatively low CAPEX and AISC. The project is also located near Unico Silver, adding further regional context. Still very much under the radar. Credit to @inigoezponda for highlighting this opportunity. I see potential for a 3x move this year. I may do some tweets in the coming days to explain the thesis in more detail.

@harald108 I joined this trade with a very small speculative position (< 1% of the portfolio). Obviously $ALNG will sell off again when ceasefire is agreed. Cheap on a relative basis compared to other players. Due to LNG orderbook not confident enough to built large position size here.

$alng $lng Awilco's two LNG carriers came on spot into this market! Will benefit from higher prices and new contracts at much higher levels

@christankerfund How do you see the potential here for LNG spot rates given the situation in the middle east but also the high orderbook at the same time?

The 2 most hated shipping segments doing the best lol

$FLNG the only shipping stock to hit a 52W high today! $MAERSK too tho ….

Now its at $32 million CAD market cap. But it still has room to run in my opinion if further drill results keep delivering. Upcoming MRE will likely be another catalyst.

Gold Milling Agreement, Cornerstone Equity Investment and West Bryah Basin Project Acquisition by @CatalystMetals Read more: starminerals.com.au/site/pdf/e22ff… #ASXgold #SMS $SMS

@mineralstocks Regarding the IOC-deal could also be some insider games being played here... . Perfect dip for an entry if someone wants to get in before the governmental contract announcement. Obviously $LGO is a story with high-risk and high-reward. Things can turn fast both-ways

Fair comments, smart guy. Let's challenge this a bit though. I assume Largo $LGO has a residual burn rate of $1.7-2M/month at $6/lb (Q4 prices) #Vanadium It's probably fair to assume we see a 15%+ higher sales prices this quarter ($7/lb). New contracts should capture this. 🧵