Joshua Book

@IanJaeger29 Really is. So funny

Macron really thinks he’s a tough guy and it’s hilarious.

Here are some ways in which the world has gotten better.

JUST IN: 🇮🇷 Arab League says "the international community will not accept unilateral Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz."

@abcampbell @BobEUnlimited @dailydirtnap

For decades everyone in the asset management industry learned that bonds are the best diversifier to stocks. Then inflation came and ruined the relationship but allocators have been slow to move to find better diversifiers in this environment even when they exist.

@prpl8 Exactly but it doesn’t stop there. That bleeds into everywhere the sunnis oil goes too. That basically brings everyone outside the brics involved, no?

@PEundertaker The Sunnis

A lot of talk on Trump Taco. Most important thing to know: If USA just abandons the operation now then Iran can set the price of global oil by controlling the volumes through the Hormuz. And sanctions are meaningless. You sanction me, I close the Hormuz.

@HayekAndKeynes 🙏

Can I get a thank you?

@ArmstrongEcon He will just leave and let it be everyone elses Problem. And properly bomb the piss out of them before doing so. They better make a deal of some sort. Probably didn’t have to be a big deal either. IMO

The Strait of Hormuz closure will not hit the U.S. as hard as it will Europe, but prices will still rise globally and that will fuel inflation. This will pressure Trump, which is why he is desperately trying to find a way out. However, he is trapped.

Gap Tracking: Friday’s gaps -- 644.82 in $SPY and 573.43 in $QQQ – remain unfilled. Thursday’s $QQQ gap up at 629.85 hasn’t been filled yet either. How quickly they get filled -- if at all – gives us an idea of how strong the underlying trend is.

@HayekAndKeynes So things are about to start happening… catalyst incoming

Short term buffers are finally running out

Hormuz transports ~20mbd. Where do barrels come from in the short run? • Floating storage • Existing Middle East pipelines • SPR releases (especially China) • Ships already in transit (~3 weeks already sailing) • Inventory drawdowns / delayed purchases • Modest demand reductions (mostly EM) Basic math: Ships already in transit + floating storage ~6–8mbd (temporary) ME bypass pipelines ~3–5mbd excess capacity SPR releases + inventory drawdowns ~3–5mbd (temporary) Demand destruction ~2–3mbd (as long as prices remain high) Total short-run buffers: ~14–21mbd The oil market doesn’t need to replace all 20mbd immediately — it just needs to close the marginal imbalance until flows normalize.

@SantiagoAuFund I’ve been trying to articulate this thought but couldn’t get it right. Good job

The good news is that people in the West have woken up and now realize our own Govs use propaganda. The bad news is that in doing so the people in the West now actually believe the non West's propaganda...

@unusual_whales @dailydirtnap literally a gold salesman

Trump: “I'm a gold person. It's all real stuff”

$SPY Put Volume spiked on Friday. Previous spikes came close to marking bottoms for the S&P 500. Will this time be different?

@HayekAndKeynes Aren’t those mostly famous already though? Wonder about the ones that used IG to get famous.

Median net worth of the top 10 most followed Instagram accounts is ~$750M.

Add margin deceleration to the bearish side of the ledger. Comment: February cutoff suggests that surging oil prices and bond yields aren't the market's only problem.

@SebS343 @hkuppy @calvinfroedge Why? I mean, what would they do if Trump did? Declare war on the whole world via Hormuz? At that point it would become most other countries problem bc they need the oil. I think it’s coming. Trump knows this.

@PEundertaker @hkuppy @calvinfroedge There's no leaving now, it was fine for you lot to abandon the Ukranians but there is no one in Gov. That will support this, US has to see this through to something that doesn't set it back 50yrs

Believe me, a total closure of the Strait of Hormuz was the last thing I ever wanted to be right about Dark days ahead

@hkuppy @calvinfroedge What if we just… leave?

I’m genuinely baffled by how obvious of a crisis to humanity is. We just inflicted the equivalent of Pearl Harbor on Iran. They don’t plan to back down until they cause so much economic pain that no one ever contemplates attacking again, or until we send enough soldiers at them to topple the IRGC. Iraq 1 was 700k US soldiers to take a flat country of 25m people. How many does it take to conquer 90m people in a mountainous country?? Even if the goal is only Hormuz, we need a few hundred thousand guys to open it through fortified mountains (Afghanistan all over again). This is gonna be an epic mess whichever direction it takes. Building the manpower in the region would also take 6 mos (like Iraq 1). There is no near-term solution here. One day, we’ll wake up and SPZ will start to price it. But that day wasn’t today…

BREAKING: AOC and Bernie Sanders are introducing a ban on AI data centers and other hyperscale data centers, per MorePerfectUnion. The ban would remain until Congress passes new AI legislation.