Pablo Pardo

We lost ~20% of the global oil supply. Prices haven’t fully reacted. Why? Because the shock hasn’t reached you… yet. Here’s the “air pocket” effect most people are missing. @Rory_Johnston Tune in to know more ⏱ TIME POINTS ⏱ 00:00 – Intro 01:26 – Why $115 Brent Is Still "Too Low" 02:28 – "Detonation In Spacetime" 03:27 – Trump’s Failed Strike Plan 05:17 – Intraday Chaos 06:46 – Largest Supply Shock In History 08:04 – The Hormuz Deficit 09:09 – COVID-level Demand Destruction 10:29 – Rerouting: The Saudi Pipeline 12:14 – SPR Release Offset 13:22 – Removing Sanctions On Water Oil 14:52 – Current Offsets Are Temporary 16:06 – Houthis: Red Sea Risk 17:12 – Tracking The Global Shockwave 18:53 – When Empty Pipelines Hit You 20:19 – The US-Canada Oil Relationship 22:18 – Can't Turn Off Refineries 24:50 – Asia's Jet Fuel & Diesel Epicenter 27:38 – Sponsor: Nexo 28:17 – Beijing’s Export Ban 30:59 – US Squeezing China 32:40 – Force Majeure: The Qatari Crater 34:37 – Gas Field Escalations 35:52 – Iran’s "Game-end" Targets 37:19 – $2M Per Tanker 39:29 – Two Tankers a Day 41:22 – The Danger of Forced Shut-ins 43:08 – Four Months To Restore Production 45:03 – A Crisis Of Lost Time & Bad Faith 46:31 – How To Navigate These Currents 48:44 – Unwinding a Crisis With No Roadmap 50:53 – Helium & Chip Supply Chain Threats 51:34 – Wrap-up

@staunovo And everybody will get a pony

Trump tells The Post the war against Iran won’t last ‘much longer’ —Strait of Hormuz will reopen ‘automatically’ after US exit #oott nypost.com/2026/03/31/us-…

@umyaznemo The Iranians were reliable. The U.S. wasn’t.

Are Americans really that stupid !!!

EU tells members to prepare for 'prolonged disruption' to energy markets from Iran war reuters.com/business/energ…

Tehran targets Gulf aluminum facilities semafor.com/article/03/29/…

Two thoughts: 1) These are military objectives. What is the political end state? Iran will rebuild its missiles and factories, its navy, and its air force. Then what? 2) If they are the objectives, why is Trump threatening escalation? What is US goal w/respect to strait?

A close-up footage of the Russian ARCTIC METAGAZ LNG tanker that got hit by a USV off Libya's coast on March 3, 2026. Following the attack, the ship caught fire and burned down almost completely. It continued to drift in the Mediterranean Sea waters until March 30, when it was towed to Egypt's shores.

A shadow of a Ukrainian interceptor drone visible on the body of a Russian Shahed/Geran-type long-range strike drone just moments before its interception.

@citrinowicz We have two non-rational actors. The only one that is unpredictable is the U.S. There is a third actor--Israel. Iran's dilemma--pursuing a deal with a regime that is far from rational or predictable, or to respond militarily in ways that could trigger the regime's collapse.

Trump’s latest tweet highlights the core dilemma facing the administration, whether to pursue a deal with a regime that is far from rational or predictable, or to escalate militarily in ways that could trigger severe economic and security fallout across the region due to an expected Iranian response. The problem is that threats alone are unlikely to produce results. The Iranian regime is not easily impressed by pressure, and it is unlikely to make meaningful concessions under coercion. At the same time, the fragmented and complex nature of Iran’s power structure means that if those threats are actually carried out, the consequences could be far more severe. More than anything, this reflects the administration’s lack of good options. The underlying assumption that Iran will behave like a conventional, rational actor risks leading to significant miscalculations. There is no easy solution here. #IranWar‌

@ShadowofEzra Did he ask Putin and Thiel for permission?

Pete Hegseth says Donald Trump has drawn a new strategic map from Greenland to the Gulf of America, calling it “Greater North America.” He says every sovereign nation north of the equator is not part of the Global South, but part of the security perimeter in this great neighborhood we all live in. "We call this map the Greater North America.”

Wouldn’t be surprising if the Pakistani FM’s visit to Beijing is tied to the ongoing Iran talks. One plausible angle: Islamabad sounding out whether China could act as a guarantor of a potential US–Iran deal, something Tehran has long sought, given its deep distrust of Trump. #Iran #Iranwar

Iran isn’t closing the Strait of Hormuz - it’s controlling it. A new “permission economy” is emerging, where Tehran decides which ships pass and which don’t - reshaping global energy flows, alliances, and risk calculations in real time. Read more: thecipherbrief.com/blockade-by-pe…

Interesting wartime shifts in public opinion. 'A Gallup poll released just before the attack on Iran found that, for the first time, more Americans were sympathetic to the Palestinians (41%) than to Israel (36%).' economist.com/middle-east-an…

@Rory_Johnston @RKelanic Global economy might already be in balance by now but it might take a few months for current prices to feed into demand.

U.S. to Allow Russian Oil Tanker to Reach Cuba, Breaking Blockade #oott nytimes.com/2026/03/29/wor…

@MalcolmNance @WeThePeopleGenX If they are fetuses, Republicans will support sending them to battle.

I literally briefed this morning on the strip clubs on Bragg Blvd in Fayetteville are a real indicator of troop movements ... and here we are.

The decision by Israeli police to bar Jerusalem’s Latin Patriarch from entering the Church of the Holy Sepulchre on Palm Sunday constitutes a violation of religious freedom and long-standing protections governing holy sites. Freedom of worship in Jerusalem must be fully guaranteed, without exception, for all faiths. Jerusalem’s multi-religious character must be protected.

The objective of the war has become undoing the consequence of the war. The stupidest war in history.

It's not top of anyone's list of self-inflicted wounds that the US continues to absorb as it fights enemies that do not exist, but there is a quiet purge of Asian scientists happening across the country rn-- a literal brain drain --that I hope some intrepid reporter will pursue.

6/ BL: Iran's going after the radars that detect threats, the tankers that keep jets flying, and the AWACS that direct the battle. That's a counter-air campaign. Adapted to what Iran can actually do. And the damage is real.