Pejjy@CuriousPejjy
Now that the dust has settled and everyone is calm, here are the FACTS after $TSLA Q1 earnings:
1. Energy gross profits are now an INSANE 39.5%.
Although this may be an anomaly, this is a sign that energy gross profit margins can well exceed over 30% going forward. The next quarters are going to be wild!
2. FSD take-rate is now over 14% (and growing).
From 1.1M subs to 1.28 is a 16.5% increase QOQ! The highest ever growth in FSD subs ever in the history of Tesla. And again next quarter. And the quarter after that and so on and on. This is only the beginning.
180,000 NEW FSD subscriptions equals to nearly $18 million/month in NEW revenue. It may not sound much but this adds up to the rest of the 1.1M active FSD subs. The higher this take-rate goes, the more SAAS revenue/profits will lift the bottom and top line of Tesla. This metric is simply more important than if $TSLA "missed" or "beat" earnings. Keep your eye on this very closely. Especially when it's about to enter Europe & China.
3. Cumulative Paid Robotaxi Miles INCREASED 65% from the previous quarter!
As more and more Robotaxi hit the streets, the vertical this will get. As Elon said, Robotaxi revenue won't material this year but it's important to note that this kind of growth gets more and more exponential every quarter and although it may not make any meaningful dent in the top and bottom of $TSLA this year, seeing the growth will inevitable do so eventually. Therefore keeping a close eye on this metric is important. It's better to be ahead of Wall Street.
4. Optimus to begin large-scale production in Q2 2026 (NOW).
$TSLA confirmed that the Fremont factory is ready to begin the production of Optimus in this quarter. This is a big deal as this line can produce up to 1 million units! Of course the only intention of building 1 million units would be to sell them and I believe they will most likely make deals with other manufacturing companies by year end to supply Optimus to their warehouses. Afterall, Tesla did confirm that the Optimus factory in Giga-Texas (that can produce up to 10 million bots) will be ready next summer. You simply don't build out these mass production lines without the intention of selling them. Be ready.
5. Cortex 2 early ramp; to DOUBLE training compute in May/June.
Tesla is about to release the kraken with compute in a month or two. This means things like FSD is about to enter next level in training. If you thought Tesla's FSD is already excellent, just see what happens when Cortex 2 is at capacity. This is important as we will see a massive uptick in improvement of the AI and not just with FSD but with many others of Tesla's AI products like Optimus.
6. Tesla is about to have lower COGS.
In the Q1 earnings report, Tesla's Lithium Refining, Cathode Materials & LFP entered an early ramp phase. These in-house made supplies will drastically reduce COGS on products made on the line therefore increasing margins.
7. $TSLA ended the quarter with a backlog of vehicles orders.
The fact that Tesla has a backlog of vehicle orders not only tells you that demand is high but something else is at play. Some could say it's due to high gas prices and other say it's the convenience of maintenance. Although these two reasons could play a role, something else is at play here. It's FSD. We are seeing customers, once they experience FSD, they don't go back. This is becoming one of the main reasons why Tesla sales are climbing again and will continue to go higher as FSD enters worldwide markets.
Here were the 7 facts that gives me the signals that Tesla in on the right path. The fact that FSD is now growing massively, followed by energy and now Optimus/Cybercab is about to ramp is all the right signals for me to keep DCAing into $TSLA.
Not to mention that Tesla sold the most EV's in it's worst quarter ever! Beating even BYD!
SHEESH!
