Panda.Fan

想靠力量训练把自己练的壮壮的从而追赶第一二次工业革命是很滑稽的。今天很多人追逐AI的方式也差不多。

帅

@woshichizi 什么时候来德国

目前看博主身体健康是普遍问题。这个现象我之前就观察到过：影视飓风的TIM有抽动症、B站百大UP啊吗粽年纪轻轻就放心脏支架、狂阿弥_ 熬夜剪视频两次送急救。昨天有朋友提到，主播这个职业晚上直播开大灯，这种会严重影响睡眠，因为大脑是靠“光”来设定生物钟，晚上直播会影响昼夜节律，长期影响睡眠质量

好久没熔断了

@STANLEES4 x.com/pandagpt/statu…

核心不是新旧经济交替的问题，是某些人自信比市场更懂市场，金融链条传导失效的本质并非新旧产业交替，也不完全是经济周期下的信心下降。老板们担心的是，我要投资的行业会不会像教培一样哪天一纸文件下来全白干？我也不同意那些类比日本唱衰长期经济的逻辑，中国和日本不同，时代也不同，AI是很大变数

So this is your best model? I ran this simple test on Gemini and Claude—no issues. Only yours failed.Let’s be real: The model isn't stupid, you’re just throttling compute to save a buck. Stop cheating your subscribers with lobotomized models. @sama

@sama So this is your best model? I ran this simple test on Gemini and Claude—no issues. Only yours failed.Let’s be real: The model isn't stupid, you’re just throttling compute to save a buck. Stop cheating your subscribers with lobotomized models.

More than 1 million people downloaded Codex App in the first week. 60+% growth in overall Codex user last week! We'll keep Codex available to Free/Go users after this promotion; we may have to reduce limits there but we want everyone to be able to try Codex and start building.

@elonmusk @robustus If human brains could transmit information directly to each other, language would be unnecessary.

@robustus Code itself will go away in favor of just making the binary directly. The next step after that is direct, real-time pixel generation by the neural net.

Turns out with claude code, my decades long strategy of NOT deeply learning: - regexs - sql - nginx confs - elaborate shell commands - advanced shell scripting - any javascript framework - perf optimization - webpack, cdns, bundlers - 1000 other things ...was entirely correct.

@fxtrader 是的，多数人还在用旧思路去预判AI时代的演化。有点类似于面对一二次工业革命，拼命健身把自己练练的壮壮的，试图在力量上追赶机器的力量。推上不上少人，天天追新的AI工具，试图通过快速学习建立某种“优势”，事实上并没什么用。这依然是旧思路。“智能”就是一种新的“能源”，靠早起跑，跑得过汽车吗？

马斯克预测，代码本身将消失，只需要直接生成二进制文件即可。下一步是由神经网络直接实时生成像素。 原Po使用Claude Code后认为，自己这些年不深入学习正则表达式、SQL、复杂Shell命令、JavaScript框架、Webpack、CDN的策略是正确的。

@suanguaa @Snowcharles 另一个角度的看法，挺好。网上越来越难看到这种水平的发言了。点了关注，过去一看是资深易学顾问。太有趣了。

柴静叙述之所以容易打动人，并不在于它提供了多少新的事实，而在于它把一个高度复杂、跨越数十年的公共政策问题，压缩成了一个清晰、动人的道德故事：一位有良知的学者，孤身反对错误政策；一个民族，因为没有听从“正确的人”，付出了沉重代价。这种写法在情感上成立，但在公共讨论中却是危险的。 首先需要厘清一个被反复混淆的事实：中国生育率的快速下降，并不是从计划生育“开始那一天”才发生的。上世纪七十年代初，中国总和生育率仍在5以上，到1979年前后已降至2点几，下降幅度最大的阶段，恰恰发生在强制性计划生育全面铺开之前。城市化、女性教育普及、婴幼儿死亡率骤降、家庭养老结构松动，这些因素共同作用，决定了生育率必然下行。这并非中国特例，而是东亚社会的共同轨迹。日本、韩国、台湾地区从未实施中国式的强制计划生育，但今天的生育率一个比一个低。如果说低生育是“当年限制生育”的直接结果，那么这些地区又该如何解释？ 将梁中堂教授的早期判断描述为“预言成真”，在逻辑上同样站不住脚。任何时代的学界都不可能只有一种声音。七八十年代，国际人口学界对“人口爆炸”的担忧占据主流，多国政府在联合国及国际机构支持下推动生育控制政策。在众多判断中，事后挑出一句与现实局部重合的观点加以放大，本质上是一种选择性验证。公共政策从来不是靠“谁后来被证明更有远见”来评判，而是看在当时信息条件和社会结构下，哪种选择风险最小、成本可控。 至于山西翼城的二胎试点，它确实证明了一点：在特定年代、特定农村社会结构中，放宽生育限制并不会立刻引发失控式增长。但这并不等于可以据此否定一个十四亿人口、区域差异极大的国家所采取的整体人口调控逻辑。用一个县级样本，反推全国长期政策的“盲目和不科学”，在方法论上是无法成立的。 把今天的“鼓励生育”与当年的“限制生育”视为同一种干预，更是一种概念偷换。限制生育意味着行政强制和惩罚机制，鼓励生育则是通过福利、托育、税收等手段降低家庭成本，两者对个人选择权的影响完全不同。如果把一切公共政策都简单归结为“国家干预”，那等于否定了现代治理本身的合理性。 真正值得反思的，并不是“当年没有听从某一位学者”，而是中国在高速城市化和经济转型过程中，将育儿、教育、养老等成本高度私人化、家庭化，却又长期依赖房地产和高强度竞争结构。这些因素，即便没有计划生育政策，也同样会把生育率压到今天的水平。把结构性问题简化为道德叙事，只会制造情绪上的宣泄，却无助于理解现实。 柴静的作品一贯擅长记录个体声音，这本身并没有问题。但当个体叙事被用来替代制度分析，当复杂历史被讲成“一个好人被忽视的悲剧”，公共讨论就不可避免地滑向情绪化。历史当然会记录不同的声音，但历史最终检验的，不是个人的悲壮感，而是一个社会在特定条件下所作选择的理性边界。

柴静本周最新的视频，她就计划生育政策相关的问题采访了中国人口生育专家梁中堂教授。梁教授今年已经接近 80 高龄，他在计划生育政策颁布和实施的 40 多年时间里，一直是坚定的反对这个政策的个人。 梁教授在 1979 年，也就几乎是计划生育政策刚刚开始实行的第一天，就发表了一篇反对这个政策的论文。在这篇论文里面有一句话：「未来你们想让人们多生，至少会像今天想让他们少生一样困难。」 很不幸，梁教授一语成谶。 柴静问梁教授：「今天看到当年的预言变成现实是一种什么感受？」梁教授用几近哽咽的语气回答说：「用我们这么大一个国家、这么多人的一个民族的弯路，来证明我的正确……其实是一个很伤感的事情。」 由于众所周知的原因，梁教授的论文和著作，在多数情况下，没有读者，他只能自己印发，在很小的范围内传播，所以他的声音并没有被更多的人听到，有关决策者即使看到了，也不会采纳他的建议。 他这么些年来，就像一个单枪匹马的孤勇者，试图在非理性的政策中，呐喊出理性的声音。作为一名有良知的学者，他形容自己长达几十年的努力是「自讨没趣」，但即使无法改变全局，也要留下反思的记录。 作为不幸中的万幸，梁教授在山西翼城进行了「二胎试点」的工程。这个地方的实践证明，放开二胎并不会导致人口爆炸，从某种程度上证明了计划生育政策的盲目和不科学性。这个试点的存在，也是梁教授认为自己在反对计划生育过程中最大的慰藉。 梁教授当年的预言在今天被一一验证，中国的生育率低于世代更替水平已经持续了近 20 年，现在中国已经完成了从限制生育到鼓励生育的循环。但他认为，今天的鼓励生育和当年的限制生育本质上是一模一样的，这种干预依然会带来不好的结果，「一定会适得其反」。 一个令人沮丧的现实是，梁教授的抗争并没有带来他理想中的结果，计划生育政策造就的是中国几代人的历史伤痛。柴静问他：「您认为这样做的意义是什么呢？」梁教授说： 「历史总会记录下来的，记录我们这个民族曾经思索过、反思过、反抗过，有过另外一种声音。」 谢谢柴静，为我们记录下了这种声音。 视频链接：youtu.be/Mros72lMndo?si…

想靠力量训练把自己练的壮壮的从而追赶第一二次工业革命是很滑稽的。今天很多人追逐AI的方式也差不多。

京东外卖现在咋样了？

影视飓风的舆情本质看这组数据，数据是官方公布的，全部做了溯源。数据本身没有观点。但即使晒这样的数据，我还被骂了几千条“没做过飞机怎么了你显摆什么？”，其实不在于你说错了什么做错了什么。流量博主的宿命就是成为祭品被献祭，用来时不时浇灭没来由的怨气。比起打土豪分田地，文革炒家，进步很大

@Snowcharles 德国最近是跟老友记的联名

麦当劳日本从本月 22 日开始推出街霸联名汉堡，这是麦当劳进入日本市场以来首次和街霸的联动。汉堡本身没啥特别，套餐也没啥赠品，但一系列像素宣传图是真的惊艳到我了🤩 #MacDonalds #StreetFighter

@iamcheyan 已经很棒了，继续加油👍

面完了。 虽然感觉自己已经背得滚瓜烂熟了，但对面3个日本人，语速又快，为了听清他们说的什么，导致后面许多东西都忘了，只能开始语无伦次地拼词组，感觉自己表现得一团糟。 行不行听天由命吧，我一年半的水平就到这了。

I'm seeing quite a bit of comment about this, so I want to make a couple of points. I'm not owed eternal agreement from any actor who once played a character I created. The idea is as ludicrous as me checking with the boss I had when I was twenty-one for what opinions I should hold these days. Emma Watson and her co-stars have every right to embrace gender identity ideology. Such beliefs are legally protected, and I wouldn't want to see any of them threatened with loss of work, or violence, or death, because of them. However, Emma and Dan in particular have both made it clear over the last few years that they think our former professional association gives them a particular right - nay, obligation - to critique me and my views in public. Years after they finished acting in Potter, they continue to assume the role of de facto spokespeople for the world I created. When you've known people since they were ten years old it's hard to shake a certain protectiveness. Until quite recently, I hadn't managed to throw off the memory of children who needed to be gently coaxed through their dialogue in a big scary film studio. For the past few years, I've repeatedly declined invitations from journalists to comment on Emma specifically, most notably on the Witch Trials of JK Rowling. Ironically, I told the producers that I didn't want her to be hounded as the result of anything I said. The television presenter in the attached clip highlights Emma's 'all witches' speech, and in truth, that was a turning point for me, but it had a postscript that hurt far more than the speech itself. Emma asked someone to pass on a handwritten note from her to me, which contained the single sentence 'I'm so sorry for what you're going through' (she has my phone number). This was back when the death, rape and torture threats against me were at their peak, at a time when my personal security measures had had to be tightened considerably and I was constantly worried for my family's safety. Emma had just publicly poured more petrol on the flames, yet thought a one line expression of concern from her would reassure me of her fundamental sympathy and kindness. Like other people who've never experienced adult life uncushioned by wealth and fame, Emma has so little experience of real life she's ignorant of how ignorant she is. She'll never need a homeless shelter. She's never going to be placed on a mixed sex public hospital ward. I'd be astounded if she's been in a high street changing room since childhood. Her 'public bathroom' is single occupancy and comes with a security man standing guard outside the door. Has she had to strip off in a newly mixed-sex changing room at a council-run swimming pool? Is she ever likely to need a state-run rape crisis centre that refuses to guarantee an all-female service? To find herself sharing a prison cell with a male rapist who's identified into the women's prison? I wasn't a multimillionaire at fourteen. I lived in poverty while writing the book that made Emma famous. I therefore understand from my own life experience what the trashing of women's rights in which Emma has so enthusiastically participated means to women and girls without her privileges. The greatest irony here is that, had Emma not decided in her most recent interview to declare that she loves and treasures me - a change of tack I suspect she's adopted because she's noticed full-throated condemnation of me is no longer quite as fashionable as it was - I might never have been this honest. Adults can't expect to cosy up to an activist movement that regularly calls for a friend's assassination, then assert their right to the former friend's love, as though the friend was in fact their mother. Emma is rightly free to disagree with me and indeed to discuss her feelings about me in public - but I have the same right, and I've finally decided to exercise it.