@Mayhem4Markets no way, that would be suicide, the population of KSA would rise up if they start defend israel by attacking iran
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pars su
812 posts
I imagine we're going to see Iran's neighbors retaliate soon.
Particularly Saudi Arabia and Qatar.
There's only so much abuse that they can take before they have to show strength, even if it means a broader regional conflict.
FinancialJuice@financialjuice
Qatar Prime Minister: Qatar retains its right in international law to respond to Iran's attacks on LNG facilities.
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@davidiss @haaretzcom so take over your government and show the world the true face of jews. muslims were always on the side of the jews in history.
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We don’t need neo-Nazis to tell us the war in Iran is immoral and unjustified. We can't let them exploit legit criticism of Israel into antisemitic conspiracies. We can see how the far right is riding Israel’s drift from the mainstream. latest @haaretzcom
haaretz.com/israel-news/ha…
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Iran threatened Israel with destruction. Then mass produced ballistic missiles to attack it. Which they did 3 times last year. When the Israel & the USAF targeted the missile plants & and bases, Iran counter-attack against it but also against the emirates & the KSA . Why ?
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Anwar Gargash Advisor to UAE President: We will strengthen our relationship with Israel to protect ourselves from Iran.
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@ELuttwak that´s a baseless assumption. trumps actions are not in the interest of the US. they are pushing Iran into the direction of north korea, with obamas deal there was a chance to strengthen the moderate elements in the society through economic relations with the west.
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NYT on-line , front page. Obama solved the Iran problem , Trump tore up the deal. Yes Obama removed sanctions on Iran's oil exports dreaming they would spend the money on the water supply etc. But from day 1, they raced ahead towards the bomb .
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@JavierBlas @JenGriffinFNC that doesn´t make sense. It would not be rational to run the world into recession and weaken the USD
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@JenGriffinFNC By now, it's semantics. And increasingly (very) hard to believe that Israel acted unilaterally and against the wishes of the US. At best, Washington is trying to be able to portray deniability. But that's about it.
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And the US was quick to say it was not their strike.
Javier Blas@JavierBlas
Qatar isn't happy with Israel (and the US?). Doha is surely trying to minimize blowback from Iran: both countries share the same gasfield, which the Iranians call "South Pars" and the Qataris call "North Field"
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@MaxAbrahms No, they understand that the US is not an asset but a liability in their security. You might end up with turkish and Pakistaní bases in the region
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The Gulf countries understand that Iran must be totally crushed military or have an entirely different government. Privately, they’re honest about that and frightened Trump will end the war prematurely. These countries need to come out of the shadows and work more aggressively with America for their own security.
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@stknbd_thomas Yeah. ESPECIALLY in Iran and ESPECIALLY the IRGC.
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Ideology rarely beats cash flow. Folks surprised by this haven't been paying attention.
Marko Papic@Geo_papic
Lots of pessimists are hanging their hat on Iran being "tough" and "resilient." And yet, there are rumors all over of IRGC essentially letting VLCCs go through... for a fee. Hormuz is either shut or it is not. You're not supposed to make a "buck" in an existential conflict.
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@Geo_papic why not? you don´t need to fight against the whole world. david needs to be smarter than goliath
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Lots of pessimists are hanging their hat on Iran being "tough" and "resilient." And yet, there are rumors all over of IRGC essentially letting VLCCs go through... for a fee.
Hormuz is either shut or it is not. You're not supposed to make a "buck" in an existential conflict.
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I believe this is the first sucessull Iranian attack against an **oil / gas field** since the war started (previous strikes against oil facilities involved refineries, terminals, and storage tanks).
(Althought the tweet calls it an oil field, it likely refers to a gas field)
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@RupertStone83 @n_roettgen @robin_j_brooks @grok @grok what would be the damage to the US and especially Germany if Iran would be blocked to sell its oil?
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BREAKING: An Iranian ballistic missile fell onto an elementary school in Northern Israel.
The regime is targeting children.
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Fellow Americans, honest question: US adm. is now urging NATO and others to help keep the Hormuz open. Do you support this course of action?
Genuinely interested in thoughtful perspectives from people across the spectrum — trying to understand how others see it.
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@SprinterPress @grok how much support is there for this view in india?
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This scene is very interesting; a member of the Indian Parliament stood up to their Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and said:
Hello and greetings to Ayatollah Khamenei who did not kneel before America and was martyred, but you, worthless one, knelt!
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@ArtaMoeini The attacks on Israel have been weaker than expected. The attacks on UAE exceeded expectations.
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This was clear as day to anyone knows and studies Iran. It was also obvious to most people in the Trump administration except for the President himself who seems to trust Iranophobic outsiders like Levin, Graham, Netanyahu, and Adelson over the people of his own administration.
Clash Report@clashreport
Iran’s retaliation surprised U.S. officials. Tehran fired 3,000+ missiles and drones at Gulf states and hundreds at Israel. A former U.S. official said “no one has done more with less than the Iranians.” Cheap Shahed drones helped hit radars, ports, bases, and oil facilities. U.S. officials admit “we didn’t necessarily anticipate exactly how they would react.” Source: FT
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@Geo_papic @HuygensWill @JacobShap @TheMichaelEvery @vtchakarova what alternatives do they have if it is a fight for survival, they know any negotiation with the US will lead to the next war. I think it would be smart for a powerful intermediary/guarantor (india?) to intervene.
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@ParsSu @HuygensWill @JacobShap @TheMichaelEvery @vtchakarova I 100% agree with you.
But, if you are Iran, you MUST know that Hormuz CAN be pried open. That MUST inform your strategy. So yes, you can throw the world into a global recession, but if the world can respond and pry the Straits open, what's the point?
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Question? Are all the countries in GCC and Europe and Asia asking if the exorbitant privilege was really worth funding all these years if 🇺🇸 can’t actually guarantee the flow when the chips are down? @Geo_papic @JacobShap @TheMichaelEvery @vtchakarova
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@Geo_papic @HuygensWill @JacobShap @TheMichaelEvery @vtchakarova there are smarter ways to solve this issue. we are not anymore in the 80s and the GCC wont be interested in Tanker wars
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@HuygensWill @JacobShap @TheMichaelEvery @vtchakarova Yes, they are. HOWEVER, it is still very early in the conflict. The US should start putting naval assets in place that allows for convoying of traffic. Other countries will as well.
In the 1980s, we had the Tanker Wars. We shipped oil through Hormuz under duress for YEARS.
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@biancoresearch why would they allow UAE, Iraq and Kuwait to sell to China. China/India have access to Russia. Prices should be very already with blocking UAE. The main damage will be done to Europe, Japan and South Korea
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If Iran does this, crude oil prices fall back to bear pre-war levels, and they lose the only leverage they have.
zerohedge@zerohedge
If Iran allows China and India oil through the Strait, that's more than half of normal oil traffic already (7mmb/d). Throw in the Saudi East-West pipeline for redirection (another 7mb/d) and the blockade suddenly shrinks a lot
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@robin_j_brooks @StavrosHadjiyia short spike? your suggestion is putting further gas into the fire. your rational leads only to more pressure and a deadlock which leads eventually to nukes. there are other ways to solve this
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@StavrosHadjiyia This is the kind of thinking that got the West in so much trouble on the G7 oil price cap on Russia. The lesson from then is to do a short and very sharp shock to completely block oil exports and implode the economy, instead of being afraid of a short spike in oil prices...
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a) blocking Iranian oil exports to China will push up prices even more, helping Russia even further. b) Will also increase Russian leverage even more. c) Will make China even more hostile to the US. d) conclusion: USA are in a very weak position right now, ergo no action.
Robin Brooks@robin_j_brooks
Iran is a gas station posing as an Islamic Republic. Iran's oil exports are reportedly up since war broke out. That's nuts. First order of business must be to blockade Iran's ports. If that hurts China, all the better. Have the Chinese complain to Tehran. robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-the-us-c…
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@robin_j_brooks you are again on the wrong side of the history. iran did not attack. the aggressing party should stop. how do you want to shut down irans oil sale? you claimed also it was wise to reduce purchase of russian oil. look where you got now? iran selling less means russia sells more
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Brent is up 30%. The Strait of Hormuz remains de facto shut, even as Iran is exporting more oil than before the war. Iran's oil exports need to be shut down. That won't spike oil prices. They'll fall as Iran implodes and its blockade of Hormuz ends...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-can-mak…
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