Paul Cubbage

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Paul Cubbage

Paul Cubbage

@PaulCubbage23

baseball enjoyer/tennessee ‘27 analytics, writer for @federalbaseball, write about the mlb draft and prospects in my free time

Katılım Eylül 2020
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Paul Cubbage
Paul Cubbage@PaulCubbage23·
We're roughly 40 games into the college baseball season, and I have expanded and reranked my college big board for the 2026 MLB Draft! Please check it out and drop any questions you may have below🙏 @paulcubbage23/april-college-mlb-draft-big-board-07cb7cd56d8c" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">medium.com/@paulcubbage23
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Paul Cubbage
Paul Cubbage@PaulCubbage23·
@1113335br That’s what I’ve always thought or at least hoped, his batted ball numbers from last season really weren’t bad and his approach was unrefined, but not awful. If he could clean it up, combined with his plus speed and defense, I think he has 4+ WAR potential in there
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Dom Sem
Dom Sem@1113335br·
@PaulCubbage23 Maybe with lower expectations he could still have a nice career
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Paul Cubbage
Paul Cubbage@PaulCubbage23·
Dylan Crews in May: .370 wOBA (.423 xwOBA) 98th percentile average exit velocity 98th percentile barrel rate 58th percentile Z-Contact rate Strikeout rate down 7% from April Almost there, next step is more contact and less chase
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Aaron Lichstrahl
Aaron Lichstrahl@AJ_Lich·
I’d go a step further - it’s not just working on the chase, but the swing decisions overall. For a guy who swings the bat at an above average clip, he is not swinging in the zone nearly enough. More swings in, less swings out. Clearly getting better but still work to be done.
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Paul Cubbage@PaulCubbage23

Dylan Crews in May: .370 wOBA (.423 xwOBA) 98th percentile average exit velocity 98th percentile barrel rate 58th percentile Z-Contact rate Strikeout rate down 7% from April Almost there, next step is more contact and less chase

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Paul Cubbage
Paul Cubbage@PaulCubbage23·
@BaseUnstitched @jowole1216 For me to believe he can be a plus big league hitter again? Probably until this time next month of hard contact and improved contact numbers For him to be back to pre-callup hype for me? Same length maybe, but needs to take another even larger step in his plate approach
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Baseball Unstitched
Baseball Unstitched@BaseUnstitched·
@jowole1216 @PaulCubbage23 My question for both of you, just out of curiosity: how long does the “hot streak” need to last before we believe he is again the guy we thought he was?
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Paul Cubbage
Paul Cubbage@PaulCubbage23·
@YesThatBrooke He’s raking at Triple A, it’s just hard to be rated highly as a corner INF prospect unless you’re elite defensively and/or there’s no holes in your bat, and with YoYo he’s not great on defense and he’s got some swing and miss concerns. Still think he can be a valuable big leaguer
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Paul Cubbage
Paul Cubbage@PaulCubbage23·
My Mid May Top 10 Nats Prospects 1. Eli Willits 2. Devin Fitz-Gerald (⬆️2) 3. Jarlin Susana (⬇️1) 4. Travis Sykora (⬇️1) 5. Seaver King (⬆️1) 6. Ronny Cruz (⬇️2) 7. Gavin Fien 8. Miguel Sime Jr 9. Harry Ford 10. Landon Harmon (⬆️1) HM: Cabrera, Petry, Dickerson, Perales
Paul Cubbage@PaulCubbage23

My Early May Top 10 Nats Prospects 1. Eli Willits 2. Jarlin Susana 3. Travis Sykora 4. Ronny Cruz (⬆️8) 5. Devin Fitz-Gerald (⬇️1) 6. Seaver King (⬇️1) 7. Gavin Fien 8. Miguel Sime Jr (⬆️9) 9. Harry Ford (⬇️3) 10. Luis Perales (⬇️2) HM: Harmon, Cabrera, Dickerson, Petry

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Paul Cubbage
Paul Cubbage@PaulCubbage23·
Isaac Lyon, a 22-year-old RHP acquired in the Jose A. Ferrer trade this offseason, through 8 High A starts: 2.13 ERA 14.6 K-BB% 84th percentile CSW% 95th percentile opponents wOBA 99th percentile groundball rate Not just a throw in trade piece, a legit arm
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Paul Cubbage
Paul Cubbage@PaulCubbage23·
@erom_mo He made high swing and miss work for him at Low A and I think he could do it again in High A, but it probably needs to be a little better than where it is now
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Paul Cubbage
Paul Cubbage@PaulCubbage23·
@jowole1216 Just posted about his May overall, looks like he’s really locking it in contact wise the last week or so because the whiff and chase rate were still a little below average for the month
Paul Cubbage@PaulCubbage23

Dylan Crews in May: .370 wOBA (.423 xwOBA) 98th percentile average exit velocity 98th percentile barrel rate 58th percentile Z-Contact rate Strikeout rate down 7% from April Almost there, next step is more contact and less chase

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Josh L.
Josh L.@jowole1216·
@PaulCubbage23 Well… FWIW (since Monday and since a week before Monday):
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Paul Cubbage
Paul Cubbage@PaulCubbage23·
@jowole1216 He used to make so much contact can we get back to that please
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Josh L.
Josh L.@jowole1216·
@PaulCubbage23 These are his metrics from April 27 to today, versus his metrics over the same sample right before his call up in 2024 (xwOBA almost 100 points higher):
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Paul Cubbage
Paul Cubbage@PaulCubbage23·
Harmon also jumps Perales in the top 10 because of my concern of Perales ability to start. Perales’ stuff is unreal, but he’s struggled to locate it, leading to many effective, but short outings in Rochester. Harmon is currently on the IL, but looked sharp in his 4 Low A starts
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Paul Cubbage
Paul Cubbage@PaulCubbage23·
King and Cruz flip flop for me not because Cruz is struggling or King is going nuts, but I really just need to see a little improvement in Cruz’s approach before I’m all in. The power potential is huge, but a 38% whiff rate and 45% chase rate is unsustainable
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Paul Cubbage
Paul Cubbage@PaulCubbage23·
@kadinthezone Why is she so mad at everyone in her comments for no reason lmao, yea lets lash out about not everyone knowing games start on a different day final weekend
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