Rational Pear

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Rational Pear

Rational Pear

@PearRational

Stupid stuff: pursuit of fusion power, BRICS currency, cryptocurrencies, CPR in tv/movies, clean car windows in the same, plastic tile spacers/levelers,

Katılım Mayıs 2022
78 Takip Edilen175 Takipçiler
Rational Pear
Rational Pear@PearRational·
@musharbash_b truth is before the 1973 shock, US production was falling bc is was expensive to explore/drill. oil in the mid-east was easy. poke a hole straight down, and oil/gas blasted to the surface under pressure. no pump jack necessary. so the could offer refineries a lower price.
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Rational Pear
Rational Pear@PearRational·
@musharbash_b the production cost of US oil has only increased bc of the techniques now required to find/extract the oil and gas. the easy oil is gone. now it’s directional drilling/horizonal drilling/fracking after very expensive seismic/geological mapping of the field.
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Rational Pear
Rational Pear@PearRational·
@anders_aslund yes. but it’s also a major point of leverage for europe right now. what if the germans closed ramstein right now? or italy close some of the bases there? england?
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Anders Åslund
Anders Åslund@anders_aslund·
One consequence of Trump's war on Iran will be that countries around the world will see US military bases as liabilities & not as security guarantees. As a consequence, many countries will presumably ask US military to leave their territories. The US is now a security risk.
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Rational Pear
Rational Pear@PearRational·
@davidsirota but also, TSA is mostly funded by ticket fees which they are still collecting. So they are just doing this intentionally. They are harming TSA workers for politic
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David Sirota
David Sirota@davidsirota·
Reminder: There would never be a TSA funding crisis if that crisis inconvenienced or endangered oligarchs who own the political system. But oligarchs fly on private jets in a private aviation system - so the lawmakers those oligarchs own feel no real pressure to end the crisis.
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Rational Pear
Rational Pear@PearRational·
@FrankLuntz yeah. it‘s fucking great. i thought republicans loved comparative advantage?
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Rational Pear
Rational Pear@PearRational·
@noclador so what? well, iran has commandeered the strait and turned it into the suez or panama canal. they control it and charge transit fees. they can do that indefinitely. cargo ships will not pass if even a 1% chance that iran lobs a drone at a cargo ship cuz they can’t be insured.
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Thomas C. Theiner
Thomas C. Theiner@noclador·
Iran still fires a few missiles now and then... so what? The Wehrmacht was firing V-2s at England until 27 March 1945... did the Germans win that war? Militarily Iran has been crushed, no matter what grifters, loons, etc. say on here, but politically the war is still unresolved.
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Rational Pear
Rational Pear@PearRational·
@PhillipsPOBrien fuck the licenses. make bootleg copies. no contract with the US will be honored. T has broken a trade deal with canada that he himself made.
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Phillips P. OBrien
Phillips P. OBrien@PhillipsPOBrien·
Once again--Trump is weakening Ukrainian air defense to help Putin kill Ukrainian civilians and damage Ukrainian infrastructure. How many times does this need to be said before people will get it.
Euromaidan Press@EuromaidanPress

Zelenskyy: US promised Europe licenses to produce Patriot missiles — then refused Germany now has no air defense missiles left to give Ukraine. Zelenskyy says it didn't have to be this way: "There were promises of licenses, but America ultimately did not go along with it" euromaidanpress.com/2026/02/18/was…

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Rational Pear
Rational Pear@PearRational·
@RachelBitecofer ok. martial law just isn’t physically possible. they aren’t enough members of the military to do it in a country so massive and so populous.
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Sandeep Vaheesan
Sandeep Vaheesan@sandeepvaheesan·
A coherent anti-oligarchy politics would emphasize that the billionaire class drives the U.S. government's cruelty at home and abroad
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Rational Pear
Rational Pear@PearRational·
@davetroy @kadavy how many ppl will know abt an attack on iran before it’s publicly known? cuz they could make bank. no need for prediction, just insider knowledge to screw the rubes.
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Dave Troy
Dave Troy@davetroy·
@kadavy They’re not. They fuel gambling addictions, organized crime, and state capture. And anyone who has studied history knows that. You, apparently, are unburdened by such knowledge, which is typical.
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📚 David Kadavy, author
Surprised the Polymarket + Substack partnership is viewed so negatively. AFAIK prediction markets are quite good at…predicting. Could be a nice change from journos presenting hand-wavy theories then post-facto claiming they were right, with no objective measurement.
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Rational Pear
Rational Pear@PearRational·
@sandeepvaheesan really? i haven’t followed that closely, but it seems modi wants to create a south asian fascism. then all the authoritarian regimes can divide up the world. like i said. not fully informed.
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Rational Pear
Rational Pear@PearRational·
@PeterTwinklage lived experience is literally the worst possible way to gain knowledge. we invented a whole new reliable process to replace it called science.
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Peter Twinklage
Peter Twinklage@PeterTwinklage·
Dems must permanently retire “lived experience” as a phrase. an insufferable albatross of woke 1.0 rhetoric. GET RID!
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Rational Pear
Rational Pear@PearRational·
@AngelicaOung nope. dirty diapers donnie is a coward. if the military tells him there are loses that could be blamed on him, he’ll back out and claim victory, or some non-existant deal. same as greenland.
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Angelica 🌐⚛️🇹🇼🇨🇳🇺🇸
Looks like the Americans are going to take a crack at Iran. The uncertainty is crazy high!
Patricia Marins@pati_marins64

Attacks similar to those in the 12 days of war With about 50 tankers in the region, in key bases like Al Udeid (Qatar), where at least 16–20 have been confirmed there via satellite imagery and flight tracking, I believe the Americans will operate in a manner similar to what Israel did during the 12 days, using refueling and extra tanks for the initial waves of attacks, which must come from much more distant bases. This safer measure will also reduce the fleet in a few days due to maintenance needs, and that's probably when they plan to bring in naval aviation. The attack from the outset should involve the launch of Tomahawks in large numbers, perhaps hundreds. The objective will certainly be to neutralize Iran's retaliatory capacity within a few days. As I've said here before, it will be a major challenge because this was attempted without success against Iraq and Yemen. The force in Iraq consisted of 6 aircraft carriers, and in Yemen it was a task force with about 20 ships, and even with air support against a much smaller territory, it was not able to prevent the Houthis from launching their missiles and drones. Iranian radars will likely be massively targeted by missiles and also by coordinated internal actions right at the beginning of the conflict. Iran's surveillance capabilities should be limited to Chinese systems and their drones, of which we're talking about hundreds just for ISR purposes. I foresee significant damage to facilities in Iran concurrent with the attacks through sabotage. Recently, it was reported that the Chinese would be assisting Iran in counterintelligence, but this is long-term work with few immediate effects. It's not a conflict of days. It's a long war whose real objective I still haven't understood, since both the fall of the government and the destruction of nuclear facilities would require a ground invasion, which is highly unlikely. The Americans are talking about preparations for a war lasting weeks, but with massive retaliations from Iran and greater attrition, this could extend for months, even with air superiority achieved in a few weeks, along with costs rising to billions per day. I would like to see the estimate of costs that the Department of Defense makes for this conflict. The US-Israel are putting all its chips on a quick action and will have the advantage of striking first, but this won't prevent Iran from putting its asymmetric naval warfare into practice, for which its navy was designed and built to fight. All this while the Strait of Hormuz, through which almost 1/4 of gas transport and 1/3 of oil passes, would be mined and closed. This war will disrupt the global economy in a way not seen for a long time. (Animation usnewsa1)

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Rational Pear
Rational Pear@PearRational·
@MalcolmNance diapers donnie will taco. he likes shows of force. he likes acts of war, not war. he (like every narcissist) doesn’t want to do anything that he could be blamed for. when the pentagon tells him what the probable loses are, he will claim an agreement. same as greenland.
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Malcolm Nance
Malcolm Nance@MalcolmNance·
IN DESERT STORM: We had 6 aircraft carriers, every airbase in the MidEast & Europe, competent leaders and full bore diplomacy. 34 counties contributing forces or weapons and we could not topple or even weaken Saddam Hussein. Going to attack Iran with this limited force, though technologically advanced, won’t make a significant change in the regime or its behavior. Iran won’t disarm for Trump. So Trump will attack thinking he can pull a Venezuela style regime change. He can’t. We will lose aircraft, airmen and maybe even a ship. Too bad Jesse Jackson is gone. Bc no one in America is respected enough to get a POW out.
Conflict Monitor@ConflictM0nitor

⚠️ The scale of the current U.S. military buildup against Iran is significant. Large deployments of air and naval assets indicate rising tensions and a possible shift in regional dynamics. Source: IEJMedia #US #Iran

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Rational Pear
Rational Pear@PearRational·
@noclador or, and this might sound strange, but europe trusted the US as loyal partner, as a good friend who would never betray them. parts of the F35 are built all over europe, bc they thought we‘re in this together. lesson for thw world. never trust the US, no matter who is president.
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Thomas C. Theiner
Thomas C. Theiner@noclador·
The reason Germany will soon order more F-35 is that the entire continent of Europe skipped out of developing a 5th generation fighter... everyone was too stingy and no one cared about Europe's safety... and now everyone is forced to buy their 5th gen fighter from the mad hatter.
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Rational Pear
Rational Pear@PearRational·
@narceducator mmmm. no. they will simply passive aggressively abandon us. they will move on into a better future, and we will be left to figure out why everything went to shit here. hint: cuz we were the biggest winners of the global order our forbearers created. WW3 is dead ahead.
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AntiNarcopathyPharmD
AntiNarcopathyPharmD@narceducator·
I have no idea what's going to transpire but it seems likely countries of the world, after witnessing the insanity, would choose to destroy the US under this administration, before letting the globe fall into WWIII. Narcissistic Americans would never consider this a possibility.
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Rational Pear
Rational Pear@PearRational·
@RachelBitecofer the US didn’t commit suicide on its own. it was talked into by social media algorithms. same as a growing number of teenage suicides are the result of LLM (aka fake AI). bathe a country in lies, and roll the dice on the result. ppl are NOT rational actor.
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Rational Pear
Rational Pear@PearRational·
@MollyJongFast screw that. study? just tax the F out of them. tax the water. tax the electricity. tax the land. require no connection to the grid and use only solar or wind power. make them run scared to texas.
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