Peeyoosh

@India_Progress AQI is a real issue in Mumbai only in Nov Dec and Jan - driver is all the tunnel and infra work going on.

@Peeyooshch dont think every year is this good. someone posted that comparison. bcos 40-50 is really good, not like80-90

@India_Progress Fair - May is usually around 70/80 levels.

@sakthivel_cit93 @GauravT71548031 Is the right way to look at the situation. HAL had a contracted timetable- they committed to deliver on a schedule. As of now they are a year late. I don’t have to estimate the time taken - HAL hopefully did that before signing. Unless they are really incompetent.

@Peeyooshch @GauravT71548031 OK Give me your estimate to Change the radar. Ew suit, mission computer And add half a dozen new missiles & munitions fr any 4.5th gen fighter

If true, then PAF doubling down on improving its air to air kill chain, after losing the previous scrap to the IAF's offensive capability. A lot of things needed to make it work. J35 needs to be stealthy enough. Including against new gen radars on Indian side. PAF AWACS the new KJ-500, which still remains prop powered and hence likely unable to climb as high as IAF's Netras with LOS limits, albeit with 360 deg coverage, needs to be able to move adequately forward to fully cover expanded range of PL17s. An antidote to the S400 needs to be found to allow forward shift of AWACS for target pick up and missile guidance. And even then, chances are that IAF missiles will still land.

@GauravT71548031 @sakthivel_cit93 There is no reason for the Mk 1A to be delayed other than indifference and poor project management. All systems have been assembled from existing components.

The LCA Mk 1A isn't here yet. Based on an off the shelf engine with 4 gen non stealth conventional technologies. And you think a clean slate design, encompassing technologies of a 5G stealth fighter, built around an engine that was then in development, and is still not ready, would have been here in 2026? A bit optimistic I'd say. On what do you base this statement? Of course, the Kaveri should have received far more support, no denying that, but how many projects can you start? And what kind of resources do we have to start projects with so many variables? Today we have kicked off the Ghatak, but after the SWiFT, and after Kaveri has covered some distance, and in an unmanned form. How is it practical to commit monies based on pure ambition?

@Pramodph2019 Fair.

@Peeyooshch Yes...that's mostly for 2021...there were unfortunately a few lakh COVID deaths in 2020 as well...and given the scale of India undercounting was definitely there too...

COVID year there is a clear increase...so undercounting is certain...only question always is how much...plus it hasn't dipped to pre COVID years levels since, better measurement?

@Varun55484761 At least the mess that is HAL is coming into the open

WTF is i am hearing 🤣🤣🤣🤣 Those red lines relate directly to the aircraft’s combat capability, particularly its missile firing functionality and the performance of its Electronic Warfare (EW) systems. Without missiles & EW Tejas is just a Target

@Pramodph2019 Most credible data driven estimates do fall around the 20 lakh or so number.

@Peeyooshch It would be even higher...my sense was around 25-30 lakhs overall deaths due to COVID ...

@omarali50 The issue is the success of the tiger program - we began with a few hundred tigers 50 years ago. They number around 3500 today. Need space that’s not there else man animal conflict is inevitable. Lots of things have been done, tiger corridors etc but too many cats.

True?

@alpha_defense This and the ER will be critical in the years to come

BrahMos-NG may quietly become one of India’s most important missile programs. Smaller. Lighter. More deployable. Yet designed to retain the devastating punch and speed of the original BrahMos. From “1 aircraft = 1 missile” to potentially multiple supersonic strike weapons per fighter. Based on latest interview of DRDO chief it is making headway (feeling relieved).

@GauravT71548031 Now for a lighted Bramhos and a longer ranged one :)

OP SINDOOR - One year back, I was posted to an Army Unit, heading the IAF Cell. On 7th, I just happened to be visiting the nearest IAF airbase, to which I was affiliated. News had broken of our strikes and the subsequent air engagement and the base was on full alert, so I walked to the Air Officer Commanding or AOC (Base Commander) and offered my services immediately. Thereafter followed duty as Terminal Weapons Director for two days, and then attachment to an IACCS Node as Air Battle Manager for about two weeks. I saw the finest in field leadership, civil-miitary cooperation, and military-military (yes, even this needs saying!), cooperation, and the spirit and commitment of the airman, soldier, sailor and civilian on the ground. I saw how networking allowed collective wisdom and experience help in dealing with a situation, and rapidly disseminating lessons across. The IAF model of centralized control (at Command HQ), and decentralised execution (at Station for support, and IACCS Node for execution of air ops) worked beautifully. Case in point, was the appearance of drones in numbers. The firing and electronic discipline was exemplary. It was realised very quickly what Pak was trying, and a very efficient MO of soft kill plus small calibre firepower was used to execute a near flawless defence. I saw an ARMY CDR, no less, frequently speak to IAF Base Cdrs to remain abreast. Of course we will now have that becoming more systemic. The joint mechanisms kicked in with great flow of info. Ditto for the Navy. To see a joint picture (MDA also populated) on the same scope was absolutely beautiful. Sitting in the IACCS Node Ops room, one gets a satellite-eye view of the entire sector. If need be, for the entire front/theatre. If one wants, the entire country! Now, on top of air tracks, civil traffic, and even own assets, Army and Navy, filtered info is also available. More than just the operational synergy, or the clarity in awareness, it also infuses a major "commonality of purpose" amongst all personnel. The feeling of "we are all doing our bit". Hopefully theaterisation will build on this. Perhaps a cause of even greater delight was how civil functionaries reached out to the AOC for offers of help, and requests for info. Personal equations, sometimes neglected in peacetime, worked wonders. Peaceful, orderly, well implemented blackouts, and zero panic, even when some of the Pak drones dropped here and there running out of battery. Within the IAF, I saw how the open source news bits of losses, affected some, especially those who hadn't been through such experiences earlier. A young officer asked me as to "what now" would we do? I told him, not to arrive at any conclusions. Firstly, we couldn't say what reality was (IAF was super at maintaining even internal OpSec), and secondly, it had just been a day. I recounted the experience of Kargil. Losses, before the first feature was regained. Sure enough, as the CDS has stated, and as results showed, changes were made. The PAF was systematically, coldly, and professionally dismantled so the story was one sided thereafter. It was a masterclass. The dismantling of the PAF's AD network by neutralising high powered radars, and by destruction of its AEW&C effectively blinded them. Our fighters used minimal, but deadly force. The Brahmos/ SCALP 1-2 created havoc. The IAF proved something that's known to air forces worldwide. Wars aren't won by shooting down the enemy (though that was done too). They are won by destroying him on the ground. The destruction of the Bholari hangar, that was dynamically added to the list as a "slow mover" was tracked recovering to the base, was the crowning glory. It wasn't a lucky strike. It was a ruthless hunt. Calibrated targeting, that produced maximum results. A trailer, of the movie that COULD come. Air power reiterated its status as the swordarm, delivering usable options. Hopefully, this is a lesson that even the GoI would have imbibed.

@azaad_bharatiya @omarali50 @niravstoons @iamrana 1792

@azaad_bharatiya @omarali50 @niravstoons @iamrana In all fairness he had good success as a field commander between 1775 and 1985. Just that in 1790 he went for Coimbatore and onwards. That made the English mobilise fully to defeat him and by 1992 he was a spent force. Bit off too much.

OTD 1799 was martyred Tipu Sultan who died valiantly fighting the British East India company Known as Sher-e-Mysore, he died fighting the British East India Company at Seringapatnam. He chose to stand and fight what he thought was an invading power. His epitaph on his tomb in Srirangapatnam reads : "The martyr of Arab is Sibte Nabi [Husain] , Fatima's lakht e jigar and Jaan e Ali From Fatima and Haider e Dakhani was [born] Tipu Sultan, Jaan e Wali, who was martyred [in Deccan] " This epitaph links him to Imam Husain, one of the greatest martyrs in Islamic tradition. It calls him Jaan-e-Wali-beloved of the saints. This was not just praise. Tipu followed a spiritual path, kept a diary of prayers and dreams, and believed that ruling was a sacred responsibility. The tiger symbol he used was not decoration, it showed his courage and how he chose to live and die. Born in 1751 to Hyder Ali, Tipu became ruler of Mysore in 1782. Btw he was fourth generation born in India. He modernized his army, developed rocket weapons, and sought alliances with leaders like Napoleon Bonaparte and the Ottoman Sultan to resist British expansion. He understood early that the Company was not just trading, but conquering. After his death, Richard Wellesley declared, “India is ours,” showing how much his resistance had challenged them. Today, he rests at the Gumbaz beside his parents. People still visit, and flowers are still offered. The tiger lives on in memory, long after the empire that defeated him. #TipuSultan #SherEMysore #OTD #TipuSultan #srirangapattana #seringapatnam #deathanniversary

@omarali50 @niravstoons @iamrana Tipu was almost irrelevant- was a force for 7 or 8 years. Mid 1780s to early 90s. Gets a lot of attention though

Mysore was not the state that caused most problems to the British conquest.. That would be marathas and then Sikhs (nepalis also put up a great fight, which is why the brits still recruit gorkhas).. And within Mysore, Haider Ali was the capable military commander, tipu was quite mediocre, but thanks to the fact that he was trying to invite the French during a Anglo-French world war, and Wellesley defeated him during that time of high danger worldwide, so he got a lot of newspaper coverage and later Indian hagiography has made him a larger than life figure..

@TechCharts Lots of focus on India . Why?

Another test of the horizontal resistance and I consider it for the Global Equity Markets report watchlist as a potential cup & handle.

@avataram I hope you mean niece

@Portfolio_Bull 4.5% price inflation per year! Not that bad.

Activa inflation 🤯 2001~ ₹35,000 2009~ 45,000 2015~ ₹49,000 2017~ ₹50,730 2018~ ₹55,000 2020~ ₹60,000 2026~ ₹1,0…see more

@deepakshenoy On any short or medium term horizon variance dominates mean returns. On longer time horizons annual variance falls off but total returns vary a lot. Allocation matters. So does rebalancing and some tactical calls.

Its tough to have conversations about future returns. How much this year? Correct answer is: I don't know The interpretation here is typically a problem further. At least 10%? At least fd returns? What's the point if you professionals don't know? But that is the point. The not knowing is what helps in the long term, but not in the short term. You can't expect a 20% this year or indeed any year, but in a 10 year period, return ranges are smaller, and even then you can have periods when 10 year returns suck. The point is to accept the haziness of the short term, but we as professionals also know that such risk isn't for everyone. So we have lower risk funds like liquid or arbitrage, or even fixed deposits. Sure returns are lower but the feature is that returns are very largely positive for periods like a year. There is no correct way to deal with this. My standard answer is, if you don't like the unpredictability of it, don't do equity at all. Harsh, but I would rather that you sleep well at night. I know that I don't know what the next year will bring you, and I also know that nobody knows. So we live with the greys in the land of equity, while we look for more certainty in debt.

@deepakshenoy That should be good! Yes RBI is horribly over capitalised for no sound reason. And it’s getting even more highly capitalised.

@Peeyooshch Other liabilities in the weekly balance sheet. It has closely matched the equity levels of the rbi in the last 12 years.

I write about the RBI surplus that has expanded massively to more than 6 lakh crore. x.com/deepakshenoy/s…