Peter Penha

I am also long the Sugar futures curve - I think it is the diesel that is what will make the trade work and panic the shorts. Algos & bots trade the gasoline / ethanol ratio (ethanol 70% energy density of gasoline) not programmed to wonder what happens in a diesel shortage. Diesel cuts the sugar cane and trucks it to the crushing plants and trucks ethanol to the gas stations and sugar to export. Diesel trucks all food around Brazil and in a shortage the sensible thing is to ration diesel for the domestic delivery use first - sugar can sit in warehouses and wait until this crisis is over. Add that it is financial speculators who are short sugar seeing years of surplus - Brazil can pay for importing and re-routing diesel on the back of HF losses on the sugar shorts - the farmers are who will benefit from higher prices. Where fuel (and thus sugar) goes may not be set by financiers but by politicians in an election year w/ the population in agreement Just my working hypothesis on how the front delivery contracts can go to backwardation in a Brazil of surplus came #sugar #SBN26 #SBV26 $CANE

@bert_gilfoyle #respect for you being everywhere on everything all at once. Thank You

$EOSE Oh.

There will be a shareholders « as of » date….now if you have your shares lent out I do not know if you are the shareholder of record or your broker is as they lent out your shares….also if you are short EOSE you will be short those rights unless you cover before hand. You will probably have to contact your broker to exercise and have cash on hand - keep checking you proxy messages in your account - where you need to vote for his to begin with

$eose Someone please explain to me like I'm an idiot the shareholder warrant/share special offer that they are talking about

And that moved BE stock up 4x after Oracle moved the stock 4x by giving them a hyperscaler order a Everyone should go back to when Bloom fell to below $3…The equipment delivered was not working / warranties were going to bankrupt the company….no one was going to buy it….EOS is 3 years behind Bloom but the ramp up can be quicker

@Zerosumgame33 Bloom Energy uses a similar infrastructure finance vehicle (Brookfield is their Cerberus). They don't do simple equipment sales to hyperscalers. Their vehicle funds, owns, and operates on site power systems under long term agreements. So did GE for turbines.

$EOSE imo, the sudden pivot away from organic customer wins to incorporating a new shell entity with Cerberus & asking for existing investor capital via rights offering is a screaming red flag at this point in the booming AI capex buildout cycle. A new short thesis just emerged. 🚩

Not for widows and orphans I agree. IMO Much riskier to be short than long at $10 because the dilution to come will involve rights given to retail longs - shorts will not get liquidity absent a small rump placement. I agree that the entire old playbook went out the window (red flag) but this is a much more real investment than Softbank’s make believe $64 billion investment in OpenAI & that is the final positive- Joe has no say whatsoever in anything EOS is going to do he is just along for the ride. EOS will be posting investment gains from the valuation of their stake in the Frontier IPP…. Jane Street will decide where this stock and the IV in the options at 100%+ to two years goes & for Jane Street an upside squeeze is far more lucrative than shorting….pain trade is higher.

No Cerberus are acting to maximize their investment / that is their incentive. The larger the EOS entity gets, the more interest it attracts from the larger IBs - who will raise the debt/capital for underwriting fees (they said 5x leverage) The positive here is that Joe M is just taking marching orders from Cerberus

Is Eos' strategic partner acting like too good of a partner the most cogent argument bears have from the Frontier Power deal?

@FuzzyPandaShort Do not forget the rights for all to purchase shares below market that the shorts will be short as well.....

We got to hand it to Cerberus though👏👏👏 Impressive way to temporarily distract investors from another Large EBITDA and Op Loss Miss for $EOSE Q1 Adj Ebitda of -$68m vs -$47.5m WS est Q1 Op Inc of of -$79.3m v. -$57.5m WS est Demand is so high, that the only people that want to commit to buying $EOSE batteries is Eos?

Eos Energy & Cerberus just sunk to a new low In the highest demand market for AI infrastructure ever, Eos had to invent a new customer, Frontier Power USA, 1 week before they missed EPS 1 major problem-🔋heads are smart enough to see through this BS

Do you have any thoughts on the PFJ Deep Dive (out this past week - and I think helped the rally) on three possible paths and that a new solution is needed pjm.com/-/media/DotCom… Electricity prices was an issue in the NJ governor race and will be in most races House & Governors this fall…..

Illinois, NJ, Maryland, and Virginia alone are requiring roughly 10 GW of battery deployment requirements, and PA is likely to add more also. Most of those projects are expected to be built on the distribution grid and largely outside PJM's interconnection queue. Yet, the BESS can still participate in capacity and demand response markets. PJM may therefore be entering a strange transition period where, over the next three to four years, you could see something similar to what happened in Texas and California. Massive battery deployment occurring largely outside the formal interconnection queue process and instead through utility distribution systems (considered grid equipment itself) or BTM installations. That includes backup added directly on large load sites and designed to provide flexible load management. Senator McCormick's proposed bill would make such applications categorically exempt from lengthy NEPA reviews. @_LatitudeMedia

I am also long the Sugar futures curve - I think it is the diesel that is what will make the trade work and panic the shorts. Algos & bots trade the gasoline / ethanol ratio (ethanol 70% energy density of gasoline) not programmed to wonder what happens in a diesel shortage. Diesel cuts the sugar cane and trucks it to the crushing plants and trucks ethanol to the gas stations and sugar to export. Diesel trucks all food around Brazil and in a shortage the sensible thing is to ration diesel for the domestic delivery use first - sugar can sit in warehouses and wait until this crisis is over. Add that it is financial speculators who are short sugar seeing years of surplus - Brazil can pay for importing and re-routing diesel on the back of HF losses on the sugar shorts - the farmers are who will benefit from higher prices. Where fuel (and thus sugar) goes may not be set by financiers but by politicians in an election year w/ the population in agreement Just my working hypothesis on how the front delivery contracts can go to backwardation in a Brazil of surplus came #sugar #SBN26 #SBV26 $CANE

Brazil having a really hard time to find gasoline & diesel to import. Petrobras / gov't domestic fuel pricing will need adjustment sooner than later. Tick tock.

The only change in the Reporting Persons' beneficial ownership of securities of the Issuer since Amendment No. 7 to this Schedule 13D was an increase in the number of shares of Common Stock of the Issuer issuable upon conversion of the Series B-4 Preferred Stock that resulted solely from an antidilution adjustment made pursuant to the terms of the Series B-4 Preferred Stock.

$eose 13D investors.eose.com/sec-filings/se…

@Ducnghia16 Alizée. youtu.be/xDDpNaQxn6E?si…

Its not only the fact that she is absolutely gorgeous but also the way she moves is so graceful and feminine that it just hypnotizes me.

@TotemMacro hiddenforces.io/podcasts/the-c… Some do.....

I really just don’t get the sense people are properly grasping the magnitude of what is going on here.

@bert_gilfoyle Day 6 I believe this tweet is from @ces921 and should be today’s returns. Look at bottom two - MS & GS Index swaps

$RBRK dumping after great numbers. Everything is being sold off indiscriminately.

$EOSE $FLNC $TE $IREN moving in lockstep yesterday - see the two worst performing Indices in the photo below. If you trade a GS or MS Index on swap - to get instant exposure to a basket of stocks well you unwind through them as well to close.

@x_times_1 $EOSE $IREN $TE $BE $FLNC all down -18% or so looks like a liquidation and nothing more - the symmetry is impressive - feel free to add other tickers

$EOSE In my opinion, the selloff is not company specific... but the lack of any communication in the past weeks from management is certainly impacting the willingness of buyers to step up to the plate on weakness.

When $EOSE shares are -10%, Nasdaq Rule 201 kicks in and the algos cannot short to you on the bid. Never trade at the market - limit buy orders when -10% or more and/or you can write puts (2 days out) and buy at $12 - NFA just pointing out rules + indicative prices

Chris am I wrong to take it to the limit that this should terrify those wealthy enough to use over funded Life Policies to someday pay the estate taxes so no actual assets get sold. That would be one way to bring the 0.1 (and above) down to much lower « wealth » as assets being sold to raise cash lower asset values. (Ray Dalio recent comment that wealth is not money and when wealth gets forcibly liquidated society rebalances) Has a situation like this ever been allowed to happen before ? I mean that a life insurer is not taken over by the others to keep it going.

Conn. regulators prep PHL Variable for liquidation after selloff fails insurancenewsnet.com/innarticle/con… #PrivateCredit

The SLV ETF NAV is based off the LBMA fix which is done at 12:00 UK. The LBMA fix is based off of auctions done in lakh (100k oz) or quarter lakh amounts. ❤️ that U.S.-listed ETF (SLV) holding physical silver in London vaults has its NAV determined by a price-fixing mechanism using Indian numbering units (lakhs), reflecting where real physical demand originates. Friday post LBMA selloff appears a 0DTE event (not sure exact amounts traded) done when other global markets were shut. Sunday night Eastern time: 6:00pm COMEX ; 8:00pm Shanghai, 10:30pm India. @Th3Seafox (apparently) has a chart following all 4 markets but check back when they are all open tonight. #SILVER @EricBalchunas @oriental_ghost

Yesterday's 19% discount to NAV broke the record set on 10/10/2008, the day the TARP was introduced during the Global Financial Crisis. Before Friday's collapse, SLV had about $60 billion in assets. The chart above shows that the silver market is now broken, meaning there is a high risk that a financial firm heavily involved in this market is either bankrupt (causing the large discount above) or in serious trouble (due to the large discount above). It doesn't mean we will automatically see a firm fail, but the silver market needs to correct itself quickly; otherwise, it probably will. Quickly correct itself = Monday or Tuesday.