Dr. Peter Scoblic

I am enormously excited to announce that I will be writing a book on the history of decision-making for Simon & Schuster!

The U.S. is facing a “new nuclear age.” How might we think differently about nuclear weapons to better prepare for tomorrow? In a new report, @NewAmericaISP's @peterscoblic explores and challenges expectations of future nuclear dangers. 🔗 bit.ly/3QyHaiU

“we are finite, limited creatures living in a world of constraints and stubborn reality.” theatlantic.com/family/archive…

@ArmsControlWonk I think the more apt comparison is to Munich. Or maybe it's the Marshall Plan.

Wake me in 1965.

I may be biased since Carl has supported my work, but I thought this interview with @MakingSenseHQ was great. It's hard to talk about everything from Los Alamos to Ukraine and actually say anything valuable-but he did. I strongly recommend a listen.

@DefenseBaron How'd your 13yo respond? *(Asking for a friend...)

In an epic dad move, I took my three boys (18, 16, 13) to see Oppenheimer tonight. It was an epic film. Different than I expected. Lots to think about. Lots to explain. Lots of filmmaking choices. Good experience. I’m glad I re-read this classic off my bookshelf first.

@AmyCEdmondson @simonschuster @AtriaBooks Congratulations, Amy!

#RightKindOfWrong: The Science of Failing Well: FINISHED BOOK is IN MY HANDS! amazing feeling Why not get YOUR hands on a copy too? simonandschuster.com/books/Right-Ki… Huge gratitude to my publishers @SimonSchuster and @AtriaBooks

The Powerful Lesson of Second Place | Opinion trib.al/ZtMV3HK

@antwier @UnderSecT @SecBlinken @StateISN Congratulations, Anthony!

@MilenaRodban For sci-fi and adjacent: The Doomsday Book by @cwcrosstalk; The Atrocity Archives by @cstross; The Rook by @DenimAlley; Daemon by @itsDanielSuarez; Gideon the Ninth by @tazmuir; The Murderbot Diaries by @marthawells1. Also, anything else by these folks.

Any recommendations for fiction that is NOT depressing, about WWII, a giant cliche, a tragic romance, or set in the suburbs? Basically, I’m looking for a good sci-fi, mystery, or historical fiction about a time/place that’s a bit different from the usual war time/royalty tales.

@james_acton32 Occasionally, in a relationship, you need space. One space.

I am currently co-authoring a piece with someone who puts two spaces after a period. I am not sure this is going to work out.

@EvansRyan202 @TXNatSecReview Thanks, Ryan!

I was just reminded of this excellent essay we published in @TXNatSecReview by @PeterScoblic in 2018 tnsr.org/2018/08/beacon…

Sometimes headlines do not refer to the thing you think they're referring to... wwd.com/accessories-ne…

@mchorowitz Congratulations, Mike!

Colossal team effort, led by Ezra Karger, to run the first Hybrid Persuasion-Forecasting Tournament: forecastingresearch.org/s/XPT.pdf Many follow-up questions but a big one is: why was it so hard for AI experts to persuade superforecasters to move their skeptical priors on long-run AI experts?

A nice piece from @arthurb making the case for humility. Information is not knowledge, let alone wisdom. theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…

Are you interested in shaping the future of biosecurity? The 2023 Next Generation for Biosecurity Competition is searching for creative policy proposals that promote biosecurity in emerging bioeconomies. Join the competition and be part of the solution! bit.ly/3CPv8v4

@DefenseBaron My parents subscribed, I subscribe, my son fell in love with the environment via NatGeo Kids, and we've spent many hours in the DC museum. No, the whole organization is not disappearing, but what a blow--and a terrible signal about Disney's priorities.

I’ve read and subscribed to National Geographic since childhood. I have boxes of them dating to the ‘70s. I heard this was coming months ago and was crushed. Maybe all these billionaire “explorers” could help except its owner is Disney! Money isn’t the issue. Sad.

This is an immensely depressing move from an institution dedicated to exploration and explanation of the natural and cultural worlds, at the very moment when we need more of both. washingtonpost.com/media/2023/06/…

@DouglasBShaw Deterrence. 60% of the time, it works every time. youtu.be/pjvQFtlNQ-M

Everyone gets their own Spider-Man but we’ve all got to share the same nuclear deterrence guys?

A wonderful/terrible example of vague verbiage. Any guesses as to what probability Powell actually has in mind? (cc: @PTetlock @mjmauboussin)