Peter xyp

540 posts

Peter xyp

Peter xyp

@Peterxyq

AGI/ASI 2030 singularity 2035 LEV 2040-2060

Katılım Kasım 2021
342 Takip Edilen36 Takipçiler
Peter xyp
Peter xyp@Peterxyq·
@DeryaTR_ 博士,我们是不是先将实现LEV,再治愈一切疾病,其次是生物奇点逆转衰老,我们是不是将在2033年前实现LEV,在2035年前治愈一切疾病,2045年前完全逆转衰老?
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Derya Unutmaz, MD
Derya Unutmaz, MD@DeryaTR_·
This is what I predicted more than 2-decades ago as the point of Biosingularity: we will be able to completely reengineer existing biology & create new life forms. Except that the dates I had given are within the next 15-20 years, by the 2040s at latest, not the next 50 years.
The MIT Press @mitpress.bsky.social@mitpress

"My prediction is that within 50 years, biology will be the engineering material of choice, and many of the people reading this article will become bioengineers." Terrific wide-ranging interview with @AdrianWoolfson at @IEEESpectrum: spectrum.ieee.org/synthetic-biol…

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Peter xyp
Peter xyp@Peterxyq·
@DeryaTR_ 我们距离2035年还有九年多了,明年这个时间线就是九年内了,而不是每年都是十年内
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Derya Unutmaz, MD
Derya Unutmaz, MD@DeryaTR_·
Yes. This is why I keep claiming that every disease will be treated within a decade and that soon after, aging will be reversed. This is not science fiction anymore. The enormous impact of AI on health and medicine will become apparent in a few years.
Jon Hernandez@JonhernandezIA

📁 Demis Hassabis, CEO of DeepMind, says AI will not just accelerate medicine. It will redefine it. First it will design drugs. Then it will change how they are tested and approved.

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Peter xyp
Peter xyp@Peterxyq·
@shaojiull 一点味道都没有的不喜欢,味道很重的更不喜欢,喜欢那种微微脚汗味道的
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mio
mio@shaojiull·
很多男生好像都有恋足的这种小癖好,问下足控的男生,每次闻女生的脚或者闻袜子的时候,到底是希望闻到那股浓浓的“脚味”呢,还是盼着脚刚洗过、干干净净一点味道都没有啊? 真正吸引男生的究竟是脚上那股自然又真实的味道,还是只是通过这个动作满足自己心里的某种隐秘心理需求?
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Robinson · 鲁棒逊
Robinson · 鲁棒逊@python_xxt·
我用LLM做过很多专业和就业的思考 结论和立党的观点几乎完全相同 学习能力强 → CS 学习能力一般 → EE 原因很简单,这是未来世界大基建的需求 → 虚拟世界的基建: 算力 + 算法 + 数据 + 软件系统 → 物理世界的基建: 能源 + 电力电子 + 半导体 + 传感器 + 通信 + 控制 如果能做到 CS + EE,恭喜你,钢铁侠 🫡
lidang 立党 (劝人卖房/学CS/买SP500/纳100/OpenAI/Anthrop第一人)@lidangzzz

高考600分以下的最好出路、唯一铁饭碗,就是学EE。 中国未来一个最大产业趋势,就是用整整一代人的财政和市场作为代价,彻底解决半导体国产自主可控的问题,解决芯片上下游卡脖的问题。 这不是一个产业盈利和外贸的问题,这首先是国家战略安全、产业安全、信息安全问题,是国家安全问题, 所以必须用国家战略级别的手段和魄力,用市场准入、补贴、地方财政和国家产业大基金一起滋滋孵化、国产红线、各大互联网厂商认购订单、国企央企强制采购等等方式, 扶持半导体制造和高端半导体设计整条产业链,彻彻底底、完完全全扶持一整套国产半导体产业。 除了半导体以外,还有一大批外围其他小众领域核心硬科技产业,比如医疗器械、船舶、航空航天(国产山寨SpaceX、starlink)等等,都是未来中国各级地方基金、国务院各产业部门扶持的热点项目。 对于高考600分以下的小朋友,如果不爱编程、不想学编程、甚至不爱学习的人而言, 选个EE(电子、信息、通信、集成电路、自动化、电气、光电)专业,毕业进入这些行业,混吃等死一辈子, 愿意学习的,考个211,读个本硕博,踏踏实实死磕VLSI,毕业进华为海思、寒武纪、摩尔线程、瑞芯微、紫光展锐等等半导体设计公司,或者大疆、比亚迪、小米这些消费电子和新能源汽车, 不愿意学习的,普通垃圾一本毕业,考个垃圾一本硕士,找个中芯国际、新凯来、鹏芯微、长江长鑫等等半导体制造,年薪30万也能混吃等死一辈子, 再不愿意学习的,读个三本电子专业,进个单片机、智能手环、山寨无人机公司,当个销售工程师、售后工程师、测试工程师, 哪怕大学一门课都没听,但必须至少懂一丁丁技术,只要能正确区分示波器和微波炉,能看得懂PLC的梯形图,能分得清仪器上的红灯绿灯,知道电线电容电阻焊锡不能咽下去,智商高于75, 你就可以有一个月薪1.5万、混吃等死大半辈子的工作。 虽然学了EE,基本上跟科技互联网和AI的机会彻底告别绝缘(哪怕进了华为海思做ascend 910 series,但是你依然觉得自己跟LLM六小虎不在一个层面), 但是至少比学个垃圾材料环境、数学物理化学、学个人文社科经管垃圾三本毕业(就业率<20%),出路要强太多了。 EE这个行业,不需要你喜欢,不需要你爹妈懂,因为高考不到600分的人,也他妈别谈什么“我喜欢什么行业”、“我从小梦想学什么专业”了, 这个分数段的人,能保证一辈子有碗饭吃、一辈子在一个被江浙沪广东地方财政扶持、擦边进入国产强制半导体和仪器设备采购名录、一辈子能让你混吃等死的半导体企业, 已经是这一代人当今时代最大的福报了。

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Rand
Rand@rand_longevity·
if you can survive til 2035, you are going to become semi-immortal
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Dr Singularity
Dr Singularity@Dr_Singularity·
@misraetel We will all become superhumans soon, we will have many tharapies (way more advanced than ozempic) for every human organ. Repariring first, then ehhancing them to superhuman levels. 2030s = era of human 2.0 begins
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Peter xyp
Peter xyp@Peterxyq·
@DeryaTR_ 赞同,最近谷歌的进步破解了人类暗物质基因组,博士,你是医学领域的顶尖专家,你认为这会将LEV,治愈一切疾病的时间线再次提前吗?2035?
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Derya Unutmaz, MD
Derya Unutmaz, MD@DeryaTR_·
After what I’ve seen recently, I am now updating my prediction for the arrival of Artificial Superintelligence (ASI) to sometime in 2028 from 2030. ASI as defined by Nick Bostrom: intellect that is much smarter than the best human brains in practically every field.
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咪咻
咪咻@mxi290933421·
@tianjinz123 口口声的版权,一次次在伤刀锋女主的心,人家女生已经明确的揭发了。你还在这里一次次的发人家的视频!
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天津z
天津z@tianjinz123·
今日分享,刀锋系列京都时代盛宴,女贝被打的最惨的一次,想看什么视频评论区留言,没有版权的都可以分享 #刀锋 #打屁股 #调教 #sp #SM #实践 #bdsm #高潮 #spank视频 #体罚 #惩戒 #高潮 #女主 #小圈sp
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Peter xyp
Peter xyp@Peterxyq·
@DeryaTR_ 我们能够在2035年前治愈一切疾病吗?😊
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Derya Unutmaz, MD
Derya Unutmaz, MD@DeryaTR_·
This is no longer true. All you need to do is remain as healthy as you can and not die for the next 10-15 years, at whatever age or shape you are. After which we will reverse aging, so a 70-year-old will become 30 years old again, in full health & shape! All thanks to age of AI!
Siim Land@siimland

If you want to be in good shape at the age of 70, you need to be in GREAT shape at the ages of 30 and 40 If you're in semi-decent shape in your 30s and 40s, you're going to be in bad shape in your 70s There's a natural decline in fitness due to aging, but you will be in a better position if you start off from a higher level That's why it's important to be above average Graph: PMID: 39456714

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运动水货
运动水货@shuhongwei22·
这个主位谁能坐?
运动水货 tweet media
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Peter xyp
Peter xyp@Peterxyq·
@DeryaTR_ 博士,你认为我们会在2035年实现LEV和治愈一切疾病吗?这二者会同时间段发生
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Derya Unutmaz, MD
Derya Unutmaz, MD@DeryaTR_·
Finally, Elon also accepts that reversing aging is a solvable problem! I claimed in 2005 that we will solve aging with AI's help and reach semi-immortality by 2045, but recently updated this timeline to 2040 & Longevity escape velocity to ~2035, and I am still being conservative!
Tesla Owners Silicon Valley@teslaownersSV

Elon Musk on Semi Immortality “I've long thought that longevity or semi-immortality is an extremely solvable problem… when you consider the fact that your body is extremely synchronized”

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Peter H. Diamandis, MD
Peter H. Diamandis, MD@PeterDiamandis·
I believe that by 2035, AGI tutors will deliver personalized, mastery-based education anywhere in the world at nearly zero cost.
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Peter xyp
Peter xyp@Peterxyq·
@DeryaTR_ 博士,您认为这会在什么时间段之内实现?2030-2033年吗?
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Derya Unutmaz, MD
Derya Unutmaz, MD@DeryaTR_·
Nothing excites me more in biology than building virtual cells! I've wanted to do this for decades: simulate a biological cell completely in silico. This is no longer a dream with advances in AI & in biological data. I'm all in on it as a scientist, don’t care what others think☺️
Chaitanya K. Joshi@chaitjo

I think the term ‘Virtual cell’ will have the same trajectory as ‘AGI’ or ‘Foundation models’ Initial opposition by rigorous scientists Bay Area + Demis are the only users --> mainstream term soon in few years (something about Overton windows)

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Bellako
Bellako@BellakoPrreo·
@elonmusk Elon and the cure for all diseases, for when?
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💺
💺@patience_cave·
@chrisgpt screenshotting this to absolutely taunt you in 2033
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Chris
Chris@Chrisgpt·
Google & OpenAI are poised to reach AGI around 2029-2032
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Peter xyp
Peter xyp@Peterxyq·
@haider1 山姆奥特曼认为是2028年吧?
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Haider.
Haider.@haider1·
current forecasts for the AGI / superintelligence trajectory on the optimistic (red) curve: - dario puts a noticeable chance of AGI/superintelligence by 2026 - elon also expects a real chance by 2026 - jensen sees high odds by 2029 (around 60%+ on the curve) - demis expects something like AGI by 2030 (around 75-80% on the red curve) sam is placed at 2035, around 60% on the blue curve the graph title is "general superintelligence", but the y-axis says "probability of AGI arrival", so it mixes terms
Haider. tweet media
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fitzwilling
fitzwilling@fitzwilling·
@JasonZX 盲猜,有感情的AGI黄金模型实现了,他们团队最近一直在深入的黄金模型,比3 Pro更高的水准。
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Jason Z
Jason Z@JasonZX·
Denny Zhou,在Google Brain中创建了推理团队(现为谷歌DeepMind旗下Gemini团队的一部分)。
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Peter xyp
Peter xyp@Peterxyq·
@VraserX @koltregaskes 那么我想知道哈萨比斯定义的AGI是什么样的?为什么还需要5-10年?
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VraserX e/acc
VraserX e/acc@VraserX·
@koltregaskes I think Sam’s definition is AI that can discover new science and accelerate scientific progress and innovation.
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Kol Tregaskes
Kol Tregaskes@koltregaskes·
AI 2027 authors update AGI medians slightly later from original ~2027 range, maintaining modal year at ~2028 amid slower progress. I still don't know what "AGI" is but I do feel between end of 2026 and end of 2028 we'll see a big jump in AI capabilities. It's when the next generation of Nvidia GB200/300 fully trained models arrive along with a large amount of AI data centres coming online. But someone at Microsoft, OpenAI and this independent body, who will ratify any claim OAI have achieved it, knows what "AGI" exactly is. Please tell us.
Eli Lifland@eli_lifland

When we published AI 2027, we thought 2027 was one of the most likely years AGI would arrive. But it was not our **median** forecast, those ranged among authors from 2028-2035. Now our medians have moved back a bit, but our most likely year is still ~2028. More in thread.

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Peter xyp
Peter xyp@Peterxyq·
@Dr_Singularity 抗衰老如果不在治愈一切疾病的前提下没有意义,99.99%的人都是因为疾病死亡,而不是衰老
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Dr Singularity
Dr Singularity@Dr_Singularity·
Anti aging progress Scientists found a new type of T "helper" immune cell that hunts and destroys aging "zombie cells". These cells show up in huge numbers in supercentenarians ( people over 100) and removing them in mice accelerates aging, meaning they might be one of the body’s natural longevity engines. In other words, our immune system may be holding a built in switch for extending human lifespan.
Dr Singularity tweet media
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