
PhilippWeiling
293 posts

PhilippWeiling
@PhilippWeiling
Global Head of BD and Ecosystem @BotanixLabs | #bitcoin, #Crypto | Biz Dev - Ownership - Relationship Mgmt | Start with Why
























The thesis: Bitcoin's current drawdown is set to reverse as net-new institutional allocations (stemming from 2025 guidance and approvals) begin meaningful execution in Q2 2026 via quarterly model rebalances and advisor implementations. Key players with published/recommended allocations (these are new, modest allocations added to portfolios that previously held ~0% crypto exposure) - Bank of America (Merrill/Private Bank/Merrill Edge): 1–4% to digital assets (effective Jan 5, 2026; advisers now able to proactively recommend regulated spot BTC ETFs for suitable clients). - BlackRock: Thematic emphasis on BTC exposure (via IBIT in 2026 outlooks; 1–2% reasonable cases referenced in guidance). - Fidelity: 2–5% (or up to 7.5% for younger investors) in reports and case studies. The rules-based institutional inflows, primarily from target-date funds, pensions, and registered investment advisors are expected to gradually add modest crypto allocations (typically 1–4%) after Q1 model updates finalize in mid-March 2026 and onward. This should generate significant net new spot demand across Q2 and Q3 2026, steadily outweighing existing paper-market overhangs over time. Anyone with on-the-ground insights/takes on these players (esp. BofA, BlackRock, Fidelity, plus JPM/Goldman/State Street) actually executing vs. modeled in 2026? Are Q2 rebalances and adviser flows on track despite the macro noise?




Revisiting some positive on-chain indicators suggesting we’re in a BTC bottoming phase. The focus here is Supply in Loss (STH + LTH). On the Feb 5th liquidation cascade, we saw a spike to ~50% of all supply in loss. If you believe in diminishing returns, the consequence might also be "softer" cycle drawdowns. The data shows a clear trend in cycle-low supply underwater at peaks: 2015 peak: ~65% supply in loss 2019 peak: ~60% supply in loss 2022 peak: ~55% supply in loss Feb 2026: ~50% (Cycle High so far) It’s not "math," but might be a trend Other tailwinds: 1) LTH supply is slowly ticking back up. 2) HODLer Net Position Change has remained positive since Dec 26th. Watching for Stablecoin supply to resume its uptrend to provide liquidity for support. Charts via the @checkonchain Any thoughts on this trend, @Checkmatey?

