Chase Bowes

Few things about me: 1) I'm a Conservative Republican focused on electing Conservative Republicans 2) I'm NOT a pollster. I'm an independent polticial analyst and campaign consultant 3) My forecasts are done through data-driven analysis and have NO political bias.

@dissolve_1 At the moment it may but that race is all over the place right now so I don't see it as something that will have much affect on the race come November.

@PolPredictions Already planning on voting, hahaha! If I don’t vote, I have no right to complain about the trajectory of the country. Also, quick question: since the backlash against the ICE raids in Maine, do you think that will negatively impact Collins?

U.S. Gubernatorial Forecast: July 2026 🔴GOP: 19 (27) Seats (+1) 🔵DEMS: 17 (23) Seats (-1) 🔵 DEM Flips: 0 🔴GOP Flips: 1 Kansas Check out my latest article on the 7 most competitive gubernatorial races: x.com/PolPredictions…

@dissolve_1 Thank you!! Much more to come as things change and November gets closer! Remember to stay involved and vote!

@PolPredictions I love your predictions so far! Keep up the good work, my man!

CONSERVATIVE WARRIOR @AndyOgles has done the WORK and DELIVERED RESULTS for Tennessee's 5th Congressional District. TENNESSEE - VOTE FOR ANDY ON TUESDAY, AUGUST 6! MAGA! 🇺🇸

@Darthballz619 I can see R+4-6 if his momentum continues but +3 is realistic and fairly comfortable.

Right in line with my R+3 prediction. I still wouldn't be surprised if Lombardo wins by more.

@Gostrowiak001 This poll shows him leading in 2 of the 3 CDs that occupy Clark County/Vegas. Totally possible especially with rightward trends in NV-03 but I don't know if it'll be enough to flip any seats

@PolPredictions It’s kinda crazy how well Lombardo is polling in democrat dominated groups. Is it possible his race helps down ballot republicans in the other races in Nevada?

Publishing governors tomorrow. Lombardo has been pretty strong and already picked up some big endorsements that may give him a wider margin against Ford. With that said, this is roughly the margin I'd expect. He could probably reach low 50s.

@AndrewDahDude Absolutely. A decent poll far from guarantees a win in November. Still has to turn out the base and win the swing voters.

He's definitely favored rn, though if I were him I'd *really* start to worry if he sees any downward movement. Worth remembering that Nevada was the only state to vote out an incumbent governor in 2022. And Trump's popularity has probably slipped there more than the national average.

@Shawn_Farash @Yael4Hanover Yep! From VA and happy to help where I can!

@Yael4Hanover Chase is also from VA!

I know Chase personally. Trust me when I say he's a friend, and I don't have any liberal friends. The reason why Chase Bowes is my go-to for all political data is because I know he won't BS me. His 2024 model had over 95% accuracy. He is a rare breed... Someone with strong opinions that he is able to keep OUT of his analysis. This is just data. I don't like what it says either. But rather than whine that it is "propaganda" how about we act like we're playing from behind and help change these numbers. Some of you react like absolute children when you hear information that you don't want to hear.

@RedStallion41 If Whatley can surge and Republicans can bring in some money then there's a chance it holds or gets closer at the very least. In the current state of the race I can't see Whatley winning just yet

Democrats have every possible advantage right now. Cooper is a 2 term Governor, nobody knows who Whatley even is, it's a bad year for Republicans, and Whatley has basically no money. If the GOP comes in big with the spending, gas comes down, and people come to know and like Whatley, he could definitely still win, but clearly he and the GOP have got a lot of work to do.

Always take polling with a harsh grain of salt but this looks on par for what we might see in November. NC is Dems' best pickup opportunity and Republicans are falling behind here despite growing registration numbers.

@docchai2022 Just messaged you on your campaign website with my contact info!

@PolPredictions Sure. DM me or hit up my contact box on ChaiForCongress.com

Few things about me: 1) I'm a Conservative Republican focused on electing Conservative Republicans 2) I'm NOT a pollster. I'm an independent polticial analyst and campaign consultant 3) My forecasts are done through data-driven analysis and have NO political bias.

@Lwallace111 Currently yes, I'm sure this is concerning for his campaign especially since PPP usually has a left-wing bias. Assuming this isn't an outlier Whatley may have a chance to close the gap.

@PolPredictions If cooper (a 2 time governor) cannot get 50% would that not be problematic for him?

@xfriendlyghost @Darthballz619 No worries. Yeah at that point in comes down to messaging strategy to convey how stupid those ideas are. Hopefully Whatley's camp can step it up and tighten the gap.

@PolPredictions @Darthballz619 Sorry, missed that post. He has a long way to go, but the more crazies the Dems nominate, the harder it is going to become for everyone else across the country. Hard to vote for someone when you know they will go along with abolishing ICE, stacking the court etc.

Ok i underestimated this dude i seriously thought that he would go full doomer mode. Credit where credit is do.

Still a good result for Whatley here, just remains to be seen if this momentum is accurate and if he can surge before November.

@paJew21403 @Darthballz619 Yep, just waiting on a candidate. I'll update Michigan after the August 4th primary short of anything happening beforehand

@PolPredictions @Darthballz619 The only one I potentially disagree with you on is Michigan. But that one could truly go either way. Good job!

@xfriendlyghost @Darthballz619 Yeah I reposted that this morning. Obviously PPP is questionable but those results are about how I expect the race to go. Just depends on the way the undecideds lean and if Whatley is able to surge in the coming months.

@PolPredictions @Darthballz619 The latest PPP has Whatley only down by 4 and Cooper below 50. Think it is still a heavy lift, but there might still be hope.

@KupoBeer @Darthballz619 It very well could. There's enough swing state seats up in 2028 for Dems to have a path to Senate majority if they have a good year this November. Overall it depends on the 2028 environment of course

@PolPredictions @Darthballz619 Thanks Chase. Do you think this sets up Democrats for a better 2028 senate map?