PolliticsUK

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PolliticsUK

PolliticsUK

@PolliticsUK

UK Polling and Analysis Nerd | Weighted Polling Tracker and Results

United Kingdom Katılım Ekim 2019
69 Takip Edilen2K Takipçiler
BrendanB
BrendanB@Brendan80704486·
@PolliticsUK @OpiniumResearch Other looks very high at 9 per cent - it can’t all be down to Plaid and the SNP. Perhaps we should have a breakdown of that as it isn’t far off the Lib Dem’s
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PolliticsUK
PolliticsUK@PolliticsUK·
🚨 Westminster Voting Intention: ➡️ REF: 27% (-2) 🌹 LAB: 21% (=) 🌳 CON: 17% (+1) 🟢 GRN: 15% (+1) 🔶️ LDEM: 12% (+2) ☑️ OTH: 9% (+1) From @OpiniumResearch From 18th - 20th March Changes with 6th March
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PolliticsUK
PolliticsUK@PolliticsUK·
🚨 Westminster Voting Intention: ➡️ REF: 25% (-1) 🟢 GRN: 19% (-2) 🌳 CON: 17% (=) 🌹 LAB: 16% (+1) 🔶️ LDEM: 11% (+1) From @FindoutnowUK From 18th March Changes with 11th March
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PolliticsUK
PolliticsUK@PolliticsUK·
🚨 Westminster Voting Intention: ➡️ REF: 28% (-2) 🌳 CON: 21% (+2) 🌹 LAB: 20% (-2) 🟢 GRN: 13% +2) 🔶️ LDEM: 12% (-1] ☑️ OTHER: 4% (+1) From @Moreincommon_ From 13th - 16th March Changes with 9th March
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PolliticsUK
PolliticsUK@PolliticsUK·
I think, if anything, this highlights some tactical voting from the Greens to the Lib Dems when the constituency prompt is added.
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PolliticsUK
PolliticsUK@PolliticsUK·
💻 How much impact does YouGov's MRP model and constituency prompt have? The figures below with DK's removed: ➡️ REF: 27% (+2) 🟢 GRN: 23% (+4) 🌳 CON: 16% (-1) 🌹 LAB: 16% (-1) 🔶️ LDEM: 10% (-4) Changes with the headline figures
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PolliticsUK
PolliticsUK@PolliticsUK·
🚨 Westminster Voting Intention: ➡️ REF: 25% (+2) 🟢 GRN: 19% (=) 🌳 CON: 17% (-2) 🌹 LAB: 17% (=) 🔶️ LDEM: 14% (=) From @YouGov From 15th - 16th March Changes with 10th March *standard YouGov adjustments
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PolliticsUK
PolliticsUK@PolliticsUK·
🚨 Westminster Voting Intention: ➡️ REF: 28% (-2) 🌹 LAB: 21% (-1) 🌳 CON: 17% (-2) 🟢 GRN: 17% (+5) 🔶️ LDEM: 9% (-3) From @Ipsos_in_the_UK From 5th - 11th March Changes with 27th January
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PolliticsUK
PolliticsUK@PolliticsUK·
🚨 Westminster Voting Intention: ➡️ REF: 27% (-3) 🌳 CON: 18% (-1) 🟢 GRN: 17% (+2) 🌹 LAB: 17% (=) 🔶️ LDEM: 14% (=) ☑️ OTH: 4% (+1) From @techneUK From 10th -12th March Changes with 12th February
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PolliticsUK
PolliticsUK@PolliticsUK·
🚨 Westminster Voting Intention: ➡️ REF: 26% (-1) 🟢 GRN: 21% (-=) 🌳 CON: 17% (=) 🌹 LAB: 15% (=) 🔶️ LDEM: 11% (+1) From @FindoutnowUK From 11th March Changes 4th March
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PolliticsUK
PolliticsUK@PolliticsUK·
🚨 Westminster Voting Intention: ➡️ REF: 30% (+1) 🌹 LAB: 22% (+4) 🌳 CON: 19% (=) 🔶️ LDEM: 13% (-1) 🟢 GRN: 11% (-3) From @Moreincommon_ From 6th - 9th March Changes with 2nd March
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PolliticsUK
PolliticsUK@PolliticsUK·
🚨 Westminster Voting Intention: ➡️ REF: 23% (=) 🌳 CON: 19% (+3) 🟢 GRN: 19% (-2) 🌹 LAB: 17% (+1) 🔶️ LDEM: 14% (=) From @YouGov From 9th - 10th March Changes with 2nd March
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PolliticsUK
PolliticsUK@PolliticsUK·
🚨 Westminster Voting Intention: ➡️ REF: 27% (+1) 🌹 LAB: 20% (-1) 🌳 CON: 18% (-2) 🔶️ LDEM: 14% (=) 🟢 GRN: 13% (+3) 🇬🇧 RES: 2% (NEW) ☑️ OTH: 7% (=) From @focaldataHQ From 6th - 10th March Changes with 19th January
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PolliticsUK
PolliticsUK@PolliticsUK·
🚨 Westminster Voting Intention: ➡️ REF: 27% (-4) 🌳 CON: 20% (+1) 🌹 LAB: 20% (-3) 🟢 GRN: 14% (+5) 🔶️ LDEM: 12% (-) ☑️ OTH: 8% (+2) From @JLPartnersPolls From 2nd - 5th March Changes with 12th February
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PolliticsUK
PolliticsUK@PolliticsUK·
@tab3lecover Typically it won't for the most part, I just don't track those on the national level because it's always between 1-3%. Some pollsters do include them in others though, but not most.
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PolliticsUK
PolliticsUK@PolliticsUK·
🖥️ Has Rupert Lowe's "Restore Britain" had an impact on UK Polling? Changes since February 13th: ➡️ REF: 28.0% (-2.0) 🌹 LAB: 18.3% (-0.8) 🌳 CON: 17.6% (-1.4) 🟢 GRN: 15.8% (+1.9) 🔶 LDEM: 12.1% (-0.2) ☑️ OTHER: 4.8% (+1.9) We've seen the "Other" selection reach the highest share since the peak support for "Your Party" in the Summer of 2025. Broad estimate would be Restore is drawing almost evenly from Reform and the Tories, with Reform faring worse due to increased implied turnout with the Green voters being more enthused. And equally, the Green Parties are drawing support from the left.
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PolliticsUK
PolliticsUK@PolliticsUK·
@SaraJane101 There are no pollsters other than Findoutnow (being commissioned by Restore themselves) that are prompting or reporting on the party, best we can do is view the "Other" section and see how it shifts - as it did with Your Party.
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Sara Brunel
Sara Brunel@SaraJane101·
@PolliticoUK So yours keeps them in other? It would be better if all polling used the same system. Saw a poll day before yesterday with reform at 23 -2 . Most polls when restore is an option go 6-10. April will be a big month for all parties I guess.
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PolliticsUK
PolliticsUK@PolliticsUK·
@Jaydo2_0 Makes some sense tbf, if the Labour v Green vote share is close that's probably expected, Labour will poll higher in unwinnable right-leaning seats than the Greens, leaving the cities to tilt green, which are the more winnable seats.
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PolliticsUK
PolliticsUK@PolliticsUK·
I do think we might just have to wait until the immediate buildup or aftermath of the local elections this year. But do believe we will see a crossover at some point this year. Whether it holds is another question.
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PolliticsUK
PolliticsUK@PolliticsUK·
❓ When do you think we will see a crossover between the Green Party and the Tories/Labour? Since the Gorton and Denton by-election we have seen: 🟢 GRN - up 2.2% 🌹 LAB - down 1.9% 🌳 CON - down 1.0% 🔶 LDEM - down 0.5% ➡️ REF - down 0.3%
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