PolliticsUK

🚨 Westminster Voting Intention: ➡️ REF: 29% (+3) 🌹 LAB: 21% (+1) 🌳 CON: 19% (-1) 🔶️ LDEM: 12% (-1) 🟢 GRN: 12% (-3) From @JLPartnersPolls From 14th - 21st May Changes with 30th April

@LabourBerry @SJP74 @Survation This is with the undecideds and won't votes excluded - actual sample size was around 500

@SJP74 @PolliticsUK @Survation and there were undecideds and refusal to say in that number

🚨 Makerfield Voting Intention: 🌹 LAB: 43% (-2) ➡️ REF: 40% (+8) 🟣 RES: 7% (+7) 🔶️ LDEM: 4% (-3) 🟢 GRN: 3% (-1) 🌳 CON: 2% (-9) ☑️ OTH: 1% (=) From @Survation From 18th - 22nd May Changes with GE2024 *26 DAYS TO GO*

🚨 Westminster Voting Intention: ➡️ REF: 27% (+2) 🌹 LAB: 20% (+1) 🌳 CON: 18% (-1) 🟢 GRN: 14% (-3) 🔶️ LDEM: 12% (-2) ☑️ OTH: 8% (=) From @Ipsos_in_the_UK From 14th - 20th May Changes with 15th April

@eRotation @Survation x.com/i/status/20582…

@BNHWalker Think this tracks quite well with the moreincommon and deltapoll figures, Reform don't lose much to Burnham, and the left is squeezed.

Comparing to Britain Predicts pre-Burnham forecast LAB: +15 REF: -1 GRN: -10 LDEM: -3 CON: -6

🚨 Westminster Voting Intention: ➡️ REF: 27% (-1) 🌹 LAB: 20% (+1) 🌳 CON: 18% (=) 🟢 GRN: 15% (-1) 🔶️ LDEM: 12% (+1) ☑️ OTH: 4% (=) From @OpiniumResearch From 20th - 22nd May Changes with 8th May

🚨 Westminster Voting Intention: ➡️ REF: 26% (+1) 🌹 LAB: 17% (+2) 🌳 CON: 17% (-2) 🟢 GRN: 17% (-1) 🔶️ LDEM: 13% (=) ☑️ OTH: 5% (=) From @FindoutnowUK From 20th - 21st May Changes with 13th May

🚨 Westminster Voting Intention: [With Andy Burnham as Labour Leader] 🌹 LAB: 28% (+8) ➡️ REF: 27% (-1) 🌳 CON: 15% (-2) 🟢 GRN: 10% (-3) 🔶️ LDEM: 8% (-3) ☑️ OTH: 6% (=) From @DeltapollUK From 15th - 18th May Changes with standard Voting Intention

🚨 Westminster Voting Intention: ➡️ REF: 28% (-1) 🌹 LAB: 20% (-1) 🌳 CON: 17% (-2) 🟢 GRN: 13% (+1) 🔶️ LDEM: 11% (+2) ☑️ OTH: 6% (=) From @DeltapollUK From 15th - 18th May Changes with 1st May

Kind of split on if this is actually that great for Labour and Burnham - theoretically, this could be the most popular Burham ever gets in terms of his net approval rating - not taking many voters away from Reform and only holding a three-point lead. Does sum up the battle in UK politics at the moment though, Labour can only win if the left back them - if Burnham is 'more of the same' you could see those Green voters drift again.

🚨 Hypothetical Westminster Voting Intention: [With Andy Burnham as Labour Leader] 🌹 LAB: 30% (+8) ➡️ REF: 27% (-2) 🌳 CON: 20% (+1) 🔶️ LDEM: 11% (-2) 🟢 GRN: 7% (-4) ☑️ OTH: 2% (-1) From @Moreincommon_ From 15th - 19th May Changes with current Voting Intention

I said in my video on the YouTube, but I imagine we start to see the public pricing in a Burnham leadership in the polls in the build up to the by-election, then probably more squeeze from the Greens if/when he wins. But, if he loses and Starmer stays - do they try another by-election? - how do the left of Labour react?

The Labour comeback begins! Burnham will boost this further.

🚨 Westminster Voting Intention: ➡️ REF: 29% (-1) 🌹 LAB: 23% (+2) 🌳 CON: 18% (-1) 🔶️ LDEM: 13% (-1) 🟢 GRN: 10% (-1) ☑️ OTH: 3% (+1) From @Moreincommon_ From 15th - 19th May Changes with 11th May 🌹 Labour's highest vote share since February

🚨 Westminster Voting Intention: ➡️ REF: 25% (-3) 🌳 CON: 18% (+1) 🌹 LAB: 17% (+1) 🟢 GRN: 15% (-1) 🔶️ LDEM: 14% (+1) From @YouGov From 17th - 18th May Changes with 11th May

🚨 Westminster Voting Intention: ➡️ REF: 29% (+3) 🌹 LAB: 17% (=) 🌳 CON: 17% (-1) 🟢 GRN: 16% (=) 🔶️ LDEM: 12% (-1) ☑️ RES: 3% (=) From @techneUK From 13th - 15th May Changes with 1st May

🚨 Westminster Voting Intention: ➡️ REF: 25% (=) 🌳 CON: 19% (-1) 🟢 GRN: 18% (-1) 🌹 LAB: 15% (-1) 🔶️ LDEM: 13% (+2) ☑️ OTH: 5% (=) From @FindoutnowUK From 13th May Changes with 6th May

@AlisonMunn2 Of course - but that's all you have before the final count! Restore taking ~5% from Reform makes this very hard to win for them.

@PolliticsUK And modelling is so often wrong?

And with this news - model is very much Burnham win.

@royski88roy @RachelHale9920 Tend to agree from what I've heard, he would be the strongest candidate.

@PolliticsUK @RachelHale9920 If Reform stand this guy he will win. Local lad, ex-squaddie, currently a plumber and a family man. Well known locally. Look how well he did in the last GE in a massive Labour stronghold. Started from zero.

@GlennRestore891 Impressive if Grok could find any examples