Oil didn’t crash. Fear did.
WTI fell from $104 → $96 as war risk eased.
Same supply. Same demand.
Just less panic.
What will happen if tensions spike again?
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Quentin G.
270 posts
Quentin G.
@QuentinGmg6
Frenchy guy living in 🇬🇧 The guy who explains markets, politics, and global power simply.
Katılım Aralık 2023
34 Takip Edilen172 Takipçiler
China’s exports just hit a wall.
+2.5% vs 8.6% expected.
Imports +27.8%.
That’s not growth. That’s stockpiling.
The world is slowing… and China is bracing.
What do they see coming?
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@coinbureau Not a demand collapse, a logistics shock. When 20M bpd chokepoints to 3.8M, pricing stops being about consumption and starts being about control.
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BREAKING: The IEA just made one of the largest forecast revisions in its history as oil demand falls for the first time since 2020 amid the Iran war.
The IEA reports Hormuz flows have COLLAPSED to 3.8M bpd in early April, vs 20M+ bpd pre-war.
Global oil supply is predicted to EXCEED demand by just 410K bpd in 2026, vs 2.46M bpd previously.
Worst of all, world oil supply is now seen FALLING by 1.5M bpd in 2026, vs a prior forecast for a 1.1M bpd rise.
World oil demand is also seen FALLING 80K bpd in 2026, vs a prior forecast for a 640K bpd rise.
The IEA says reopening the Strait of Hormuz is the single most important variable for easing energy prices.
This is a full-blown global energy emergency.
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Gas up. Food up. Rent up.
Stocks up.
This isn’t a strong economy. It’s a split one.
How long can that last?
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter
The gap between Wall Street and Main Street has never been bigger: US consumer sentiment is down to 47.6 points, the lowest level in history. At the same time, the S&P 500 is trading just 3% from its all-time high. Since the 2020 pandemic, consumer sentiment has fallen -50%. During the same period, the S&P 500 has rallied +205%. This comes as inflation, rising housing costs, and a weakening job market are increasingly squeezing the average American household. Meanwhile, 87% of all equities are held by the wealthiest 10% of households. Asset owners are the biggest winners in this economy.
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@InsightRadarX @stats_feed The difference is less striking than in Europe, since when we think of Europe, we think of uniform pricing. But apparently not
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Diesel Prices per Litre in Selected Asian Countries ⛽ (as of early April 2026)
🇭🇰 Hong Kong ~$3.40–$3.95
🇸🇬 Singapore ~$2.50–$3.25
🇲🇲 Myanmar ~$1.55–$1.80
🇵🇭 Philippines ~$1.40–$1.60
🇱🇦 Laos ~$1.30–$1.45
🇵🇰 Pakistan ~$1.50–$1.60
🇰🇭 Cambodia ~$1.10–$1.30
🇻🇳 Vietnam ~$0.90–$1.00
🇹🇭 Thailand ~$0.90–$1.00
🇰🇷 South Korea ~$1.10–$1.20
🇨🇳 China ~$1.00–$1.10
🇯🇵 Japan ~$0.80–$1.00
🇮🇳 India ~$0.90–$1.05
🇲🇾 Malaysia ~$0.45–$0.55 (subsidized)
🇮🇩 Indonesia ~$0.50–$0.70 (subsidized)
Lowest in Broader Asia:
🇮🇷 Iran ~$0.01–$0.05 (extreme subsidy)
🇹🇲 Turkmenistan ~$0.25–$0.40
🇰🇼 Kuwait / 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia ~$0.30–$0.50
Global diesel average: ~$1.58/litre
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🛢️ Diesel price per litre across Europe as of April 9th 2026
🇳🇱 Netherlands: €2.58
🇩🇰 Denmark: €2.56
🇩🇪 Germany: €2.43
🇧🇪 Belgium: €2.31
🇫🇮 Finland: €2.26
🇫🇷 France: €2.23
🇦🇹 Austria: €2.23
🇸🇪 Sweden: €2.20
🇱🇺 Luxembourg: €2.19
🇱🇹 Lithuania: €2.18
🇵🇹 Portugal: €2.13
🇮🇪 Ireland: €2.10
🇮🇹 Italy: €2.09
🇬🇷 Greece: €2.07
🇱🇻 Latvia: €2.06
🇪🇪 Estonia: €2.03
🇷🇴 Romania: €2.02
🇨🇿 Czechia: €1.98
🇭🇷 Croatia: €1.87
🇨🇾 Cyprus: €1.84
🇪🇸 Spain: €1.81
🇵🇱 Poland: €1.80
🇸🇮 Slovenia: €1.77
🇸🇰 Slovakia: €1.75
🇧🇬 Bulgaria: €1.70
🇭🇺 Hungary: €1.67
The most expensive diesel? Netherlands 🇳🇱
The cheapest? Hungary 🇭🇺
Source: Eurostat
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@jackprandelli What a policy split!
€2.58 in the Netherlands. €1.67 in Hungary.
Same market. Different rules.
Something is wrong
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🛢️ Diesel price per litre across Europe as of April 9th 2026
🇳🇱 Netherlands: €2.58
🇩🇰 Denmark: €2.56
🇩🇪 Germany: €2.43
🇧🇪 Belgium: €2.31
🇫🇮 Finland: €2.26
🇫🇷 France: €2.23
🇦🇹 Austria: €2.23
🇸🇪 Sweden: €2.20
🇱🇺 Luxembourg: €2.19
🇱🇹 Lithuania: €2.18
🇵🇹 Portugal: €2.13
🇮🇪 Ireland: €2.10
🇮🇹 Italy: €2.09
🇬🇷 Greece: €2.07
🇱🇻 Latvia: €2.06
🇪🇪 Estonia: €2.03
🇷🇴 Romania: €2.02
🇨🇿 Czechia: €1.98
🇭🇷 Croatia: €1.87
🇨🇾 Cyprus: €1.84
🇪🇸 Spain: €1.81
🇵🇱 Poland: €1.80
🇸🇮 Slovenia: €1.77
🇸🇰 Slovakia: €1.75
🇧🇬 Bulgaria: €1.70
🇭🇺 Hungary: €1.67
Source: Eurostat
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@stats_feed What a policy split!
€2.58 in the Netherlands. €1.67 in Hungary.
Same market. Different rules.
Something is wrong
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@Ole_S_Hansen That’s stockpiling.
What does China see coming?....
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China’s export growth slowed sharply in March, with shipments rising just 2.5% year-on-year, while imports surged by 28%. This left the trade surplus at USD 51 billion—less than half the USD 107 billion expected. The divergence was driven by a jump in imports of refined oil products and other commodities, alongside strong demand for high-tech goods, where imports rose nearly 30% in the first quarter of 2026. Some of the weakness in export growth likely reflects seasonal distortions linked to the timing of the Lunar New Year.
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@GordonGChang That’s stockpiling.
What does China see coming?....
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Last month, China’s export growth slowed, missing expectations by a wide margin. Exports were up only 2.5% from a year earlier.
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Europe doesn’t have a diesel price problem. It has a policy split.
🇳🇱 Netherlands: €2.58
🇭🇺 Hungary: €1.6
Same market. Different rules.
Taxes vs subsidies. Reality vs politics.
Which one breaks first?
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Quentin G. retweetledi
Keeping this in mind, it’s now just under two hours before the U.S. blockade of vessels leaving Iranian ports and vessels paying tolls to Iran is set to begin.
OSINTdefender@sentdefender
According to Barak Ravid, citing a senior U.S. official, following the failed U.S.-Iran talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, mediators from Turkey, Pakistan, And Egypt will continue talks with their U.S. counterparts in an attempt to find points of convergence between the U.S. and Iranian sides. Per the report, mediators, who still believe a lasting ceasefire is possible, hope to realize the aforementioned goals before the ceasefire deadline on April 12, 2026.
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@DeItaone Apart from Russia and China, who is going to buy oil from Iran?
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IRAN AMBASSADOR TO INDIA: IRAN HAS OIL AND IS READY TO SELL TO ANY COUNTRY THAT WANTS IT
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Apart from Russia and China, who is going to buy oil from Iran?
BRICS News@BRICSinfo
JUST IN: 🇮🇷 Iran says it has oil and is ready to sell it to any country willing to buy.
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This isn’t about pistachios.
It’s a supply chain shock moving upstream → downstream:
Energy → Fertilizer → Farming → Food → Consumer
Expect fresh food to spike first, processed goods right after, and then everyday groceries quietly get more expensive over the next few months.
Polymarket@Polymarket
BREAKING: Pistachio prices surge to an eight-year high amid supply disruptions in Iran.
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Let's be a little more positive!
Robert A. Pape warns of shortages within 10 days but that assumes the system just freezes.
It won’t.
When supply gets tight, the system adapts fast:
flows reroute, inventories get tapped, policy steps in.
Price shock doesn’t automatically become a supply shock.
Robert A. Pape@ProfessorPape
Within 10 days, parts of the global economy will start running short of critical goods After 30 years studying economic sanctions and blockades, I don’t say this lightly: --Not just higher prices --Shortages. Markets are not ready for this
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Iranian oil is flowing to India for the first time in 7 years. And the timing is everything.
This delivery tells you something critical:
Even during escalation, the system cannot fully shut off flows. It has to bend.
If tensions keep rising, does this become a one-off exception, or the start of a new workaround system?
@TankerTrackers
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@JavierBlas What do you think of this decision?
Hope it'll help people + businesses
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BREAKING: The oil market needs demand destruction; Germany has other plans.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said on Monday that gasoline / diesel duties will be cut by 17 cents per liter for 2 months to cushion the impact of the US-Iran war.
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@AzizSapphire Won't this also have an impact on the economies of Middle Eastern countries? China is a major buyer of Middle Eastern energy, isn't it?
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