
Razvan Balanescu
221 posts


@KingKong9888 So they cut and sacrifice the dollar. Boost exports and get some stimulus. It s the only way, as always. Hiking, nope.
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@KingKong9888 Much more likely to cut/hold them hike. A hike is very deflationary for the economy which already sucks.
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🚨 What happens to GOLD if new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh cuts rates (and lets the long end run higher) — but real rates tank?
Warsh delivers short-end rate cuts. Long-end yields rise on fiscal/inflation expectations (steepening the curve). But crucially, real yields collapse — either because inflation expectations surge faster than nominals or because the entire rate complex eases aggressively.
⭕️This setup is extremely bullish for Gold. Here’s why:
1. Lower short-term rates crush gold’s opportunity cost
Gold pays nothing. When Fed Funds, SOFR, and T-bill rates drop sharply, cash and short paper become far less attractive. Money flows into gold ETFs, futures, and physical. Classic easing tailwind on steroids.
2. Real rates tanking = Gold’s biggest green light
Gold has one of the strongest negative correlations with real (inflation-adjusted) yields. When real rates fall hard, the discount rate on future gold cash flows effectively drops, and its appeal as an inflation/financial repression hedge skyrockets. This is the single most reliable driver of sustained gold rallies.
3. Steepening curve + higher long nominals still favors gold
Rising long-end yields on fiscal dominance fears, sticky inflation, or term premium returning actually helps here. Treasuries lose safe-haven shine while gold benefits from the inflation component embedded in the steepener. Real rates falling overrides any nominal pressure.
4. Historical parallels are powerful
• Post-2008: Rates slashed, real yields collapsed amid QE → Gold exploded from ~$700 to over $1,900 by 2011.
• 2020-2021: Ultra-low/negative real rates in the reflation steepener → Gold hit all-time highs near $2,070 despite rising nominal long yields.
• Every major gold bull market in modern history (1970s, 2000s, 2020s) featured plunging real rates.
5. Dollar and broader tailwinds
Aggressive short-rate cuts typically weaken the USD. Weaker dollar + falling real yields = rocket fuel for gold. Central banks continue stacking physical gold regardless.
Risks become much smaller in this case
Even a strong equity rally or growth optimism is usually overwhelmed when real rates are tanking. The main historical killer for gold (sharp real-yield spikes) is removed.
🎯Bottom line: A Warsh Fed cutting short rates, allowing curve steepening, while real rates tank would be a textbook gold super-bull setup. We’d likely see strong, sustained upside — potentially pushing gold toward $6,000+ and beyond if the dollar softens and geopolitical/fiscal risks stay elevated.
This is the environment where gold doesn’t just rally — it becomes a core portfolio asset again.
Not financial advice — pure macro mechanics + history.
#Gold #Fed #RealRates #Macro #Investing #KevinWarsh

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@NorthstarCharts @baldguymoney man, as a paid subscriber, I don t understand your vibe. Today "we told you so..." gold down. Tomorrow... gold up... "We warned you."
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@baldguymoney The top for gold/silver/commodities/energy & oil won't be in until these charts say so.


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@baldguymoney I ve never seen a broke gold bug. Only crypto bros and tech bros.
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@PoindexterPete @baldguymoney I bought more than I can afford 😅
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@DonDurrett Haven t sold a single option, Yet. Sold some near the top. Bought some near the bottom.
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@Louis___83 @badcharts1 Agree.!It has not outperformed gold yet. It should be $10-11 or more to outperform gold. It needa to be $7.20 just to match the old ATH... most miners hit ATH after ATH (surpassed the 2011 and 2020 peaks).
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@badcharts1 Look at something like B2Gold. Nothing is priced in but risk!
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1) Miners have NEVER outperformed gold for this long, this hard, so not sure about nobody not seeing this coming.
2) Which brings me to this important point, how much of this of ALREADY priced in?
3) Finally, what OTHER narratives aren't you aware of that can counter this?
Otavio (Tavi) Costa@TaviCosta
Mining companies today are generating the largest profit margins of any sector in the global economy by far. Much of the market remains asleep and still analyzes mining through an outdated framework from decades ago. To be clear: Miners today are producing profit margins nearly double those of tech companies. At current metal prices, this environment is absolute nirvana for well-run mining businesses. tavicosta.substack.com/p/mining-more-…
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@badcharts1 @VictoriaViorela What about miners that still have not overperformed gold? Some are due for a re rating now as their balance sheets improve.
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Even now trying to disprove facts. $GDX
Patrick Karim@badcharts1
1) Miners have NEVER outperformed gold for this long, this hard, so not sure about nobody not seeing this coming. 2) Which brings me to this important point, how much of this of ALREADY priced in? 3) Finally, what OTHER narratives aren't you aware of that can counter this?
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@StealthQE4 Central Banks prefer inflation. No Hike, HOLD or CUT.
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@baldguymoney @saylor When Saylor Moron will go bankrupt and Bitcoin will bleed, that s when I ll buy.
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@saylor Seeding the idea that you may need to sell Bitcoin. Bearish!
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@seethetrees1 In 2 months they r good. Let s hope Gold doesn t drift lower
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@RossDurane @GoldTelegraph_ If he hikes above inflation, depression 2.0 comes
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@GoldTelegraph_ The change will be devastating for gold. He will hile above the rate of inflation. Sell now and lock in any profits you may have.
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@eurofounder 15M maybe, 0.15M is a joke. Just as your opinions.
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Just discovered my 19 year old daughter has an OnlyFans account
I was devastated
She clearly must not be registered as a sole proprietor with the the German Trade Office
I sat her down and asked how much she'd made
She said €4,200
I nearly collapsed
That's at least €1,890 in unreported VAT obligations
She started crying but I did the only thing a good father could do
We spent the entire weekend filling out forms together
She's now fully compliant with a business registration and tax ID
Makes €340/month after taxes and social contributions
I've never been more proud of her
Only 19 and already an online entrepreneur
She has a bright future ahead of her
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@davidbateman Btc growing supply at 0.8% per year with increasing demand; zero counterparty risk.
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Dollar supply growing at 7%+ per year with decreasing demand + vast counterparty risk
Gold supply growing at 1.5% per year with increasing demand; zero counter party risk.
Silver supply shrinking by approx 6% per year with wildly increasing demand; zero counter party risk.
Our minds are as malleable as our store of value
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@Rajatsoni I wanted to start learning for CFA... but after seeing this moron, I changed my mind.
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@Silver__Santa biggest mistake of my life: good assets, good mindset, patience, <5% cash... big mistake...
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