Randall Schmidt

US economy is nearing a sharp economic downturn Current yield curve steepening is one of the sharpest on record since 1990 Such a move has typically occurred right before or during a recession

For the EIA storage report, survey averages suggest a build of +49-52 Bcf vs the 5-year average of +55 Bcf. It was hot vs normal over most of the US besides the Plains. We expect a build of +49-50 Bcf, although tricky due to the Fourth of July Holiday. $natgas #oilandgas

US Unemployment will begin rising substantially by Sept 2023 Initial jobless claims are poised to reach 400k in the next 18 months A thread 🧵

Smart money/dumb money confidence spread is at extremely low levels Indicating that dumb money is much more confident than smart money Follow the smart money, not your emotions

The size of the two largest stablecoins, Tether/USDT (Blue) and Circle/USDC (orange), are shown below. They are moving opposite the conventional wisdom. --- May 11, 2022, was the day before LUNA/UST failed. This event peaked the amount of Tether outstanding. It led to heightened calls to "short Tether" as it briefly de-peg following LUNA/UST's demise leading to calls that there would be a massive scramble to dump Tether exposing the inadequacy of its reserves. It never happened, but it did benefit USDC during this period as it was US-based, regulated, transparent, and owned super-safe US Treasury Bills. November 30, 2022, the wake of the FTX failure. The short Tether calls grew louder. The business model of USDC looked all the better. March 6, 2023, the day before Silvergate Bank closed. Two days later, SVB failed. Everything changed. USDC de-pegged, briefly trading 88 cents when it was disclosed $3 billion of its reserves were trapped at SVB. This proved temporary as the FDIC said SVB was a "systemically important bank" and guaranteed all depositors. Two days later, USDC re-pegged when all its reserve funds at SVB were available. But it seems the damage was done to USDC. The combination of the SVB episode, the aggressive regulatory moves to crush crypto, and the looming debt ceiling/default have completely turned the tables against USDC and in favor of Tether. --- Before, regulators worried that stablecoins posed a systemic risk to Tradfi markets, like the Treasury Bills market. (What if everyone lost confidence in stablecoins and moved at once to get out, causing their reserves to dump hundreds of billions of Treasury Bills all at once?) Now, Tradfi markets, especially the specter of defaulting Treasury Bills, pose a risk to stablecoins! Layer on to this the aggressive nature of US regulators, and the stablecoin of choice is now offshore, opaque, and not involved in Treasury Bills. Could the (often denied) concern that Tether's reserves held Commercial Paper issued by Chinese companies now be a virtue? How things have changed! Sum it all up, the amount of Tether outstanding is at a new high while USDC is at a year-and-a-half low. Something thought to be inconceivable just a few months ago.

The stage is set for delinquencies to rise Bank tightening is a good leading indicator for loan defaults Tighter standards = ⬆️ defaults

US CPI comes in at 6.5% Inflation expectations gets it spot on this time around Market reaction is going to be key

The McClellan Oscillator just flashed for the first time since March 2020. It measures the market breadth (# of stocks participating) in a #SP500 move. Historically, major bottoms have occurred when the indicator moved from -50 to over 100 (red dot)

Here is the May update of #consumer #sentiment. Pollster: "Excuse me...can I ask you how you feel about the economy?" Newly Homeless Family: &^$*# *$&

Interesting. I update by #NetBullish #Composite index [AAII (retail) + INVI (institutional)] which is currently at levels where the #Fed was cutting rates, doing QE, etc. Not #starting and #rate #hike campaign.

1/2 I'm sure the world's poor have not noticed what happened to food prices in March ...

The cat is out of the bag! The carbon tax candidates have a backroom deal to take over the leadership and impose their Liberal policies on the Conservative Party. Help me stop them and protect our principles: docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAI…

For the first time in my 35 years in the business, I was asked today on @CNBC whether I should put my faith in the economic views of a Wall Street bank CEO or the actual data that were released today. Now, let me see… #WallStreet #RosenbergResearch

The chart of the day just dropped at cryptobanter.com.

Somehow people don't want to go back to work; they want to retire and live off their 401(k)s; and apparently we have hit an epic supply wall on labor... and yet, 807k jobs miraculously were created in December!

Translation: The capital stored in the #Bitcoin network just broke an all-time-highs. The network has more money in it today at $47k than it did at $64k in April. Realised Cap estimates this by summing the price paid for every coin in BTC's circulating supply.

Apologies for the delay. Here's the official @oneplus Nord giveaway tweet. Just Re-Tweet this tweet and make sure you're following @UnboxTherapy for your chance to win. Good luck!

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Download VoteCoin Wallet and get free VOT coins. votecoin.site/?r=1575 #VoteCoin #freeVOT #id1575

Looks like a great exchange.