R🅰️VNIR

420 posts

R🅰️VNIR

R🅰️VNIR

@RavnirX

Stocks, mostly $ASTS. And spewing my burning anger at Jew Hitler and Orange Hitler. Look elsewhere for financial advice.

Norway Katılım Kasım 2011
52 Takip Edilen27 Takipçiler
R🅰️VNIR
R🅰️VNIR@RavnirX·
@evantindell Also he was STONED AF during that CNBC interview. "I guess we'll see what happens" 😂🤙🔥
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Evan Tindell
Evan Tindell@evantindell·
The $GME situation is wild. The CEO Ryan Cohen has an options package for 171m shares that he can earn if he hits certain market cap and EBITDA hurdles. The crazy thing is that this is not adjusted for dilution. He needs the market cap to be $20b to get the first tranche but he can just issue a crapload of shares! This is why he wants to buy $EBAY.
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R🅰️VNIR
R🅰️VNIR@RavnirX·
@tuff_4r @Reformed_Trader Thanks for constant ASTS TA @tuff_4r . Have traded some lower coniction picks for more ASTS. Will lighten my bag abit around 150 whenever we get there but this rebate is too good.
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Tuff_4r
Tuff_4r@tuff_4r·
$ASTS - 3 Sigma Level Selling from the peak is now 3 std dev below the mean - statistically extreme. In prior declines, price failed to hold below the 3-sigma band during sell offs; providing additional support. @Reformed_Trader provided the charts 👊🏽 (Part 2 in thread)
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Tuff_4r@tuff_4r

$ASTS - Selling pressure 🔴 (-VI) is at 1.29. This level has been consistent with maximum negative sentiment peaking. This added to the weight of evidence has produced a high probability confluence exhaustion zone… +/- 3 days of low.

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R🅰️VNIR retweetledi
TheRealSalDePaol🅰️
TheRealSalDePaol🅰️@DepaolaSal·
Let me talk about instant gratification and why it's destroying retail investors in $ASTS and honestly in life in general. We live in a world where people can't wait for anything. Amazon same day delivery. DoorDash in 30 minutes. TikTok in 15 second clips. Swipe left, swipe right. Next. Next. Next. And people have taken that same energy into investing and it is genuinely one of the most destructive things I've ever watched happen in real time. Here's what's wild to me. AST SpaceMobile went from $2 to $130. Let that sink in. $2 to $130. And now it's sitting at $74 and people are acting like the company is failing. You bought at $2 and you're complaining at $74? That's a 37x return and you're on X posting about how management lies and misses timelines? Be serious. But let's talk about those timelines because this is where people really expose how little they understand about engineering, manufacturing, and what it actually means to build something that has never existed before. AST SpaceMobile is not building an app. They're not dropping a software update. They are hand-building the most complex commercial satellites ever put into low earth orbit. Satellites so large, so technically advanced, that when you look at the BlueBird specs compared to anything else up there, it genuinely looks like science fiction. These things are pushing the absolute boundaries of what human engineering can do right now. Abel Avellan has been sleeping on the production floor. Let that image sit with you for a second. The CEO. Sleeping on the floor of the factory. Because that's the level of commitment happening behind the scenes while retail investors are posting bear takes from their couch. And yes. They've missed timelines. You know who else missed timelines? Every single space company in the history of space. Every single one. Elon Musk said people would be on Mars by 2025. It's 2026. Not even close. He's now saying 2030, which he'll probably miss too. SpaceX has missed more deadlines than I can count. Starlink missed timelines. Falcon Heavy missed timelines. Starship has been "almost ready" for years. And what's SpaceX worth right now? They're targeting a $2 TRILLION IPO valuation. TWO TRILLION DOLLARS. So the next time someone tells you ASTS missed a launch window so it's over, remind them that the greatest space company ever built missed virtually every major deadline they ever set and they're worth $2 trillion. Amazon's Kuiper? Late. Blue Origin? Chronically late. New Glenn just put a BlueBird satellite in the wrong orbit. These are the best funded aerospace organizations on planet Earth and they can't hit a deadline. That's not failure. That's the nature of operating at the edge of what's physically possible. What AST has accomplished is actually extraordinary when you look at it objectively. They went from a startup nobody believed in to having AT&T, Verizon, Rakuten, Orange, Telefonica, TELUS and 50+ of the world's largest mobile operators signed as partners serving nearly 6 billion subscribers. They got FCC approval for a 248 satellite constellation. They secured prime contractor status on a $151 billion Golden Dome defense program. They have $2B+ in cash, $1.2B in contracted commitments, and just filed a patent that could multiply their spectrum capacity by 3x to 10x making their already extraordinary spectrum position worth potentially $6.8B to $17B in added value in the US alone. And they did all of this while building something that has literally never been built before. But the bears and the impatient want results now. Today. This quarter. And if they don't get it this quarter they're done. Moving on. Next. That's not investing. That's gambling with an impatience problem layered on top. Real investing requires understanding what you own, having conviction in the vision, and having the patience to let world-changing companies actually change the world. It took Amazon 10 years to be taken seriously. Netflix was a joke for years. Tesla was the most shorted stock on earth before it went up 10,000%. The pattern is always the same. Visionary company. Massive execution challenges in uncharted territory. Impatient retail investors exit. Institutions accumulate. Company delivers. Stock re-rates violently upward. Retail watches from the sideline. Don't be that retail investor. If you don't understand engineering timelines, if you've never built anything complex in your life, if you've never managed a manufacturing process for something that's never been made before, maybe pump the brakes before you post your bear take about a company whose CEO is sleeping on the factory floor to make sure a $30 million satellite is perfect before it goes to space. Because once it goes up, it's up. Forever. You don't get to patch it. You don't get to recall it. You have one shot. And that's exactly why they take the time they take. And that's exactly why the bears will be wrong. Patience isn't weakness. In investing, patience is the entire game. $ASTS 🛰️ NFA
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R🅰️VNIR retweetledi
Jvnior
Jvnior@Jvnior·
🚨🇮🇱 BREAKING: Israel has kidnapped two Flotilla members and labeled them as Hamas. Now they face execution in israel. Repost this.
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R🅰️VNIR
R🅰️VNIR@RavnirX·
@sadepiippu He would be visiting Moscow during the Victory Day parade if he was gonna do anything like that. Trump supports the other side in the war.
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Sadepiippu🇫🇮🇺🇦
President Biden made a visit to Kyiv in 2023 walking through the city as air raid sirens blared to show America stands with Ukraine. Donald Trump doesn’t have the balls to do the same.
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R🅰️VNIR
R🅰️VNIR@RavnirX·
AST botched their launch? 😂😂😂👌 Do more some mire research, you seem clueless. You have a lot of DD to do before you can claim to understand the situation. There have definitivly been delays in shipping satelites. That is ASTS fault, not gonna lie. But Blue Origin fucking up thier launch has nothing to do with the skills of ASTS engineers.
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Joost Boer
Joost Boer@Joost_Boer·
@nmcs961 Can you explain to me their moat vs Starlink? Starlink is better funded and appears to have the better people working on it. AST botched their launch recently.
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Joost Boer
Joost Boer@Joost_Boer·
Can anyone explain to me why you would invest money in AST Spacemobile if Starlink exists? Asking for a friend.
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R🅰️VNIR
R🅰️VNIR@RavnirX·
SpaceX does currently not offer cellular broadband and will never be able to go to through even a car roof with the types of spectrum they are planning on using. You seem to have done 3 minutes of DD, before you short take the time to do another hour or two atleast. NFA Starlink will newer be a true competitor to ASTS buisness model.
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33 Valleys
33 Valleys@33Valleys·
My view is that space X already dominates the field and I don’t think ASTS can compete. Love watching Asts grow and some win big. Idk. I love the idea and believe it’s possible but Asts spends a lot. Not very efficient deployment. Their cost of getting g satellite to orbit is something beyond 10x the cost of what SpaceX does it for. Very expensive for them to pay their way into orbit. Rocket Lab and SpaceX bigger beneficiaries of the ordeal imo. But I have been wrong before. I did ride a 2x ASTX for a little bit in 2025. Small stake and I think I pulled out with like 25% gain on it or something. Insignificant.
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YodaStocks
YodaStocks@YodaStockInvest·
Im seriously thinking about buying $ASTS Monday. What are your 2030 targets? Much appreciated! I have NEVER owned anything Space related before and am not very knowledgeable on it, but with SpaceX IPO coming and their revenue scale coming this dip is a steal I think.
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R🅰️VNIR
R🅰️VNIR@RavnirX·
@YodaStockInvest 2030 target of around 1000 dollars is my base case. There is a lot of research and modeling you can look at out there 🤙😊
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R🅰️VNIR retweetledi
Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський
Based on the results from April, our long-range sanctions have reached a new level across three components: reducing Russia’s oil revenues, as well as the range and intensity of sanctions. It is important that not only is the target itself reached, as defined by the operational objective, but that the downtime of the target is increased or, at the very least, its operations are significantly reduced. According to the most conservative estimates, since the beginning of the year, the aggressor state has lost at least $7 billion solely as a direct result of our precise sanctions against Russia’s oil industry and refining sector – due to direct hits, downtime, and delays in shipments. I am grateful to all our warriors of the Defense Forces of Ukraine who, together with the Security Service of Ukraine and our intelligence agencies, are delivering these results. We will scale up our long-range systems capabilities. Decisions are being prepared. Glory to Ukraine!
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J
J@jasonllevin·
The Furthest Away
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R🅰️VNIR
R🅰️VNIR@RavnirX·
@dbongino You are an asshat pedophile protector. You should be thrown in jail.
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Dan Bongino
Dan Bongino@dbongino·
Socialism has a 100% success rate of failure. Socialism is fertilizer for imbeciles. Friends don’t let friends do socialism.
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Joby Aviation
Joby Aviation@jobyaviation·
A perfect day in the Big Apple 🍎
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R🅰️VNIR
R🅰️VNIR@RavnirX·
ASTS is certainly not a space company, its nothing like Firefly or Voyager or RKLB. They are not a manufacturer first and foremost. Do more DD if you want to undrstand the thesis. It is more akin to Netflix with lower Capex because they don't need to keep making an endless stream of content. They just need their constelation up and capex will be replenishing that. Netflix needs to license or make new series all the time. Margins in 30%. ASTS will not incur added costs from adding users as long as their capacity is not overbooked. They could literally have a billion customers with only a few hundred satelites. Give ASTS only 1 dollar per month of that money and you could see how the numbers get ridiculus fairly quickly. Real RPU would likely be closer to 30 dollars per user annualized. 30 billion on a constelation that cost maybe a 1B a year to maintain. Can you see how the margins might end up over 80%? NFA
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Razayev
Razayev@Ozayevable·
@ASTSHodlerClub +80% margin?! you cant give me 10 companies with 80% margin and you think a space satellite company is gonna be one of them?!
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Uh🅰️tta
Uh🅰️tta@ASTSHodlerClub·
If $SNDK with $5.95B revenue and 78% margin is valued $161B, What $ASTS will be valued with $12B revenue and +80% margin?
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R🅰️VNIR
R🅰️VNIR@RavnirX·
@vlmkapital TLDR,BIT(Too Long Didn't Read, Bookmarked It Though) 😊🤙 Thanks for the research.
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vlmk
vlmk@vlmkapital·
$LPK I have spent the past few days researching a potential downstream CPO application for LPKF's laser-written waveguide tech. This might be some of my best research yet. Let me propose a candidate I find extremely plausible: the Ayar Labs Detachable Optical Connector Ecosystem. Ayar Labs obviously needs no introduction; they are backed by NVIDIA, AMD, Intel, and more for CPO work. We are building on top of earlier research, namely that LPKF's CPO partner in question is Intel. I have plenty of writing on this. Let's start with Ayar Labs' product itself. What do we see? "Detachable optical connectors that enable flexible, efficient cost-effective deployment and maintenance of high-density, chiplet-based optical I/O using next-gen packaging. This includes Intel Foundry's detachable glass photonic interconnect solution." This is Intel's only publicly disclosed partnership that not only includes optics, but also glass. This would match the LPKF CEO's language of the partnership being a "part of a larger customer project." Now, let's look deeper. Ayar Labs further describes Intel's Detachable Optical Interconnect component: "Unique coupler enabling an on-package optical connection from an Ayar Labs optical engine to the external fiber connection. The interconnect provides a flexible interface to PICs from various foundries." The next step for me was to try searching Intel's patents for something like this. And would you look at this: "Photonics integrated circuit device packaging", US20240027706A1, filed in 2022 and published in 2024. We see this description: "Embodiments herein provide photonics-based integrated circuit packaging architectures that enable detachable fiber solutions. Such solutions can be enabled through the use of a glass interposer, with a photonics integrated circuit (PIC) being optically coupled to the fiber through the glass interposer, e.g., using waveguides and/or other optical elements within the glass interposer." Sounds extremely similar. We see an architecture based on a glass interposer. There is also an Intel paper from overlapping authors that appears to describe a concrete implementation of this patent architecture. Here is how it describes their approach: "Our solution relies on a glass optical bridge with integrated waveguides and connector mechanical alignment features that can be attached to the photonics silicon at die level to produce a photonics module." Now, in the paper itself, we see: "The glass bridge devices used in this work were manufactured using ultrashort-pulse laser direct writing, which enables wafer-scale single-step 3D patterning of waveguides and precise micromachined features." So Intel is using laser-written waveguides for this architecture. In fact, this would contrast nicely with Corning's GlassBridge, which also aims to be a detachable optical connector, but instead relies on ion-exchanged waveguides. What is also interesting is that one of the key Intel names connected to this glass-bridge work in the paper and the patent, Pooya Tadayon, later joined Ayar Labs in 2024 as VP of Packaging and Test. Anyway, now tie all of this back to the Korean article about LPKF's CPO delivery. Intel has literally paid LPKF to develop technology for writing waveguides in glass via a laser. It is also confirmed by the LPKF CEO that this development is exclusive. So LPKF would clearly be Intel's partner of choice for laser-written waveguides. I mean, they have been working on this since 2022. Not only that, LPKF currently appears to be the only visible player with this kind of technology ready for mass production in the semiconductor space. So we could be looking at a bottleneck status here. The actual development work in the paper was most likely not done with LPKF's equipment, but instead Optoscribe's equipment. Intel eventually acquired Optoscribe. The Korean article also talked about 510 x 515mm panels, whereas the paper talked about 150mm glass wafers. LPKF would probably be providing the equipment for actual production purposes (as was highlighted in the Korean article).
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vlmk@vlmkapital

$LPK LPKF has now delivered their first CPO equipment to their CPO partner (see quoted post). I have speculated this customer to be Intel. The equipment in question is for writing optical waveguides onto glass via a laser. In addition, LPKF is seemingly looking to patent an entirely glass-based photonic connector. It seems it would be made in their own foundry, which also makes me speculate that they're probably looking to shift to a hybrid model of also selling components instead of just equipment. From the article: "LPKF has secured equipment and technology for manufacturing multilayer 3D optical waveguides on large-area glass panels measuring 510 × 515 mm. The technology is no longer merely at the research and development stage; it is ready to be deployed in actual mass-production lines."

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R🅰️VNIR
R🅰️VNIR@RavnirX·
Holy shit, this senile fucker has his finger on the nuclear button for 3 more years. Must be kinda how it felt in the 60s, but then they had fairly rational actors. We have a senile megalomaniac in the US, Mob boss in Russia and Jewish Hitler over in Israel. Hard to see how we get through the next 3 years without nukes being used somewhere 🤔😆
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Vatnik Soup
Vatnik Soup@P_Kallioniemi·
Trump: “I think Ukraine, militarily, they’re defeated. They had 159 ships. Every ship is underwater. Every one of their planes has been shot down.” Yes, he mixed up Iran and Ukraine. He really did
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Lazzyyyyyy
Lazzyyyyyy@em_Lazzy·
Who can honestly claim, without hesitation, that they have never supported Donald Trump, even for a single moment?
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