Raymond Edwards
1.5K posts











There is a near-perfect correlation between US oil prices and US CPI inflation, as shown in our below analysis. As WTI crude surges above $112/barrel, we believe the US economy is bracing for 3.5%+ CPI inflation, particularly if current prices persist through April. Asset owners will be the only winners in the long-run.


🔴 Trump on Iran: We could strike their oil





Half of US data centers planned for 2026 are expected to be delayed or canceled. One big reason is shortage of electrical equipment, such as transformers, switchgear and batteries. US doesn't have manufacturing capacity, forcing it to rely on imports. 🎁🔗 bloomberg.com/news/features/…



ISM DATA COMES IN HIGHER THAN EXPECTED - Actual: 52.7 - Expected: 52.5 - Previous: 52.4 This is the highest ISM reading in 3 years. Let us break down what this means: This March data gives us a snapshot of how the US economy is holding up during the war. So far, manufacturing is proving resilient. Despite fears that the conflict would slow growth, the data shows economic activity is still expanding. At the same time, we are seeing inflation expectations rise largely driven by higher oil prices. But here’s the key point: We haven’t seen clear signs of slowing growth yet. This puts the Fed in a difficult spot. - Growth is still strong - Inflation risks are rising again That combination reduces the urgency for rate cuts and could even keep policy tighter for longer. In short: The economy is holding up better than expected.











