Prasath Prabhakaran

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@gurjota @niraj_shah Ridham said experience trumps reading and suddenly all the book investors can't take it. Investing isn't about who is saavy or an intellectual. Investing is about being street smart, no better way to build that without being on the street and experiencing it. Ridham was right.

"Reading books is a waste of time" Someone said this in a TV interview yesterday. Please convey Charlie's message to them @niraj_shah

@deepakshenoy There are two bottlenecks to this AI capex craziness. Incremental cost for every DC is going up, when more countries climb on the bandwagon, eventual return would be minuscule for infra players. ISP's and browsers never made money in the long run. Companies with DCs won't either.

The problem with investing in datacenters is the pace at which hardware gets obsolete. You spend the money building space, buy servers, GPUs and what not. And then, your space remains valuable (as is the connectivity) but the servers and GPUs rapidly depreciate. Within 2 years, you have to recover most (or all) of the cost of the GPUs you've bought, as customers want newer hardware now. If you get contracts with no-exit clauses you might be ok. But it's possible that new technology makes the same compute viable on lower end processors (you lose on your higher GPU investment). This might still help you because after two years your depreciated GPUs may still be useful to farm out at lower but at least some price. The other problem is an AI blow up. Because all these companies are inventing revenue via equity wink-nods, things can stop very quickly and then, even committed revenue can go out the door. Lastly the private credit bubble might actually see an end which hurts potential financing metrics for a data center. I think if anything all the problems will come together. The tail risk is dangerous. Tax-holidays might help, but it might actually be better to vulture this out - wait for the bankrupties and then swoop in.

@Finstor85 @ishmohit1 Additionally GCCs are also doing the same job as they are in a far more controlled setup. So when you are up against local competition, no real pricing power. Margins will be hit. Just the same thing that happened to the paints segment, which is playing out in IT.

@Finstor85 @ishmohit1 Our IT companies are stuck between a rock and a hard place. They will have to use AI, that is what the world wants(clients/investors/emp), they can't meaningfully reduce workforce because of pressure. Workforce won't adapt quick enough. So outlet is lower margins, hence derating

Looking at what is happening to the IT index.. IT jobs will be in for tough times in India going forward. Bleak sentiments and v weak commentary on growth

@WeekendInvestng The whole index is reinventing itself. The period of finance generating alpha over the broad return is over. So sticking to efficient markets, the index is swap out the underperformers Finance and IT and bring in new performers to keep up the index alpha. That's the shift.

There is a perceptible difference in the mid/smallcap dynamics vs Larger caps since the war started.

@sbarjun7 @ECISVEEP People came in droves and have voted for something. What they have voted for will be revealed in due time. But don't degrade such an awesome democratic effort using subpar analysis. Sweeping the electorate smartness under your mathematical massage.

@sbarjun7 @ECISVEEP 3. Narrative, population growth. To be honest, TN population has been growing at 50% lesser rate than those all those previous terms. Check the data below to see how a 8-7% growth rate has now stalled to 3-2% in the recent years.

The Latest Press release from @ECISVEEP. At 85%, 4.87 crore voters out of total registered 5.73 crores have cast their vote in #TNElections2026 today. In 2021 elections, voter urnout was 4.63 crore out of registered 6.29 crores - 73.6%. So roughly increase in around 20 lakh odd voters, considering population growth also. However, In percentage terms, the figure shows 12% differences (from 73% to 86%) significantly more due to SIR deletion of 74 lakh voters in this election. Sorry to burst the bubble, It’s not a Wave, It’s just plain Math. Alas, Kudos to each and every citizen who exercised your universal adult franchise. 💪🏼🔥 #TamilnaduLegislativeAssemblyelection2026

@thechartist26 In all the past corrections the RSI always created a higher high. The last peak created a lower low, so negative divergence will kick in. Also on the chart above, it has formed a continuation. The price should fall further. 1st sup - 2440 2nd sup - 1800 worst case - 1150

M&M and the previous declines always around 25-30%

@josecruset @InvestRepeat Coal usage exploded. Coal miners were decimated. Bank automation, exploded bank growth. But bank tellers were decimated. Chinese goods, exploded electronic usage, manufacturing decimated. It's a race to the ground. So service industry won't be the same again.

@josecruset @InvestRepeat Jevon's paradox implies the exploding demand for the underlying technology, doesn't talk about the value chain. When an underlying technology explodes, the value chain goes from high margin to a low margin. The whole IT service value chain is on the cusp of being disrupted.

Oracle layoffs look bad. > Apprently 20% employees have been fired. > Globally, 20,000 - 30,000 employees laid off. > 50% of that is from India. 12,000 to 15,000 fired. > Even people who were with Oracle for 26 years have been let go. As I keep saying - If you’re into any form of coding-related job, or your salary depends on monotonous work involving software; please start working on increasing "income" & "income sources" 🙏

@paras5123007 @itsTarH @Chandankr2018 We will have a pseudo stagflation. All the developed world bond yields have been consolidating. So they will break on the higher side, because of reckless fiscal borrowing. But that fiscal spending with the AI spending will mask lack of growth. data won’t say it’s stagflation

@itsTarH @Chandankr2018 What's your view? Euphoric AI rise before recession and then stagflation or direct, eventual, gradual decline to stagflation? Or no stagflation for 8-10 years?

No yield spike = No TACO catalyst in near term More than oil, look at bonds yields to understand when and if Trump is forced to do a TACO

@itsTarH Yes, it all boils down to bonds. The move index will let us know when this collapses. Guesses are that he will go back this time when the Move spikes. Then it makes one higher high and then a blow off top after some crazy fed printing and fiscal madness.

@itsTarH @Chandankr2018 Not just that. The market is expecting increased borrowing for the military and also will need to offset for the reduction in tax receipts, fiscal is going to run off a cliff. The govt has always tapped the bills end recently. That’s why the front end and the belly is going up.

@Chandankr2018 Short end is up due to repricing of expectations of a Fed rate cut Long end is free from such distortions and also informs one about true cost of long term capital The curve (short being rising, while long stable) is also a reason why stagflation fears are back recently

@mehul_n_trivedi @Portfolio_Bull @12 we could compound at 12% for the coming decade. Post that it would be 8-9% compounding. The same goes with leverage, you are assuming a 8% rate and SWP that would always compound. If I pick a peak and SWP from there, my compounding could be way lower.

@mehul_n_trivedi @Portfolio_Bull @12 This is basically taking all the good elements of Leverage and compounding. Compounding @12% can't certain, specifically if I'm invested in India. In 20 years, with nominal growth of 10%, GDP could be close to 40tn. If you think we can grow at 10% at 40tn, that's naive.

My brother aged 35yrs & has ₹30 Lakhs..Instead of spending it, he made a strategy: -Invested ₹15 lakh in MF @12% -Invested ₹15 Lakh in MF & started SWP & withdrawing ₹12000/Month He then took a ₹12 lakh loan against his Mutual Fund & purchased a small rental apartment. The EMI was paid using the SWP withdrawals. After 20 years He has~ • Mutual Fund value = ₹1.4 -1.6 Crore • SWP corpus still ~ ₹20-25 lakh • Apartment value ~ ₹60-70 Lakhs • Rental Income~ ₹18-22k/Month My brother is financially smart or fool ?