Rafito Membroza

@JanmarKaczynski @RMXnews well, it isn't bad per se. I am a Spanish person who lived in Germany, and nobody complained about Spanish, Japanese, Australian, Argentinian, or Chinese crime. It's always migrants from Islamic countries who are messing up.

@RMXnews "I'm leaving Germany to protect my children from the imported crime" AND "migration isn't bad per se" . 😳

🇩🇪🔴"I'm leaving Germany." Famous German Youtuber "Radical Living" with 2 million followers explains why he is leaving his country. "Once you have children, you also think about where you want to raise them, especially if you have a daughter. I don't think Germany is a good place to raise a daughter anymore because women, in general, don't feel safe walking down the street at night." "You don't have to take it from me; there are public petitions in all major German cities. Women want vouchers for free taxi rides at night, and in Berlin, they want women-only subway wagons. The stories you hear about what women have to endure in Berlin public transport are just messed up." "If a woman can't walk down the street at night and feel safe, you have failed as a society. It’s ridiculous that every time something happens, politicians just say we have a 'knife problem' or suggest women should dress differently." "You can also see the decline in small things. You can't go to the supermarket anymore without feeling like we're living in a crime-polluted society." "Even in Prenzlauer Berg, one of the best neighborhoods in Berlin, you go into a drugstore like DM and have to ask the cashier to unlock basic products like shampoo or cream because they get stolen so much. Even in a normal supermarket like Edeka, they are locking up alcohol and Red Bulls—things that cost only €1.50—with security tags. What kind of society is this becoming?" "Radical Living" also cites Christmas markets. "Last year, several were canceled because they couldn’t afford the 'terror defense' anymore. It costs millions of euros to put those barriers up. If Christmas markets—a place of joy that people look forward to in December—get canceled because they can't afford terror defense, many things have gone wrong in this country." "Don't get me wrong; I don't want to blame this solely on migration. Migration isn't a bad thing per se, but there are always going to be a few people who do stupid things, and you have to filter them out. Germany is doing an extremely bad job at that." He also notes that even people rejected for asylum are not being sent back home. In the full 36-minute video, "Radical Living" cites the worsening economy, the high tax burden, the abuse of the welfare system, and other countries with a better quality of life as all factors in his decision to leave. "Radical Living" has amassed millions of followers through his comedic takes, which are also popular with young people and left-wing viewers. As a result, this video, which has 1.7 million views, is sure to reach a wide audience.

@Gepard732846 @MSWiA_GOV_PL Mam też nadzieję, że wkrótce trafi do więzienia

@RealRafito @MSWiA_GOV_PL Powiem Tyle. Jebać Pedro Sancheza

🇵🇱 Pracujemy nad zmianami w nadawaniu polskiego obywatelstwa. Obywatelstwo Polski to przywilej, na który trzeba sobie zasłużyć. Dlatego planujemy wprowadzić zmiany które zagwarantują, że każdy kogo przyjmujemy do naszego narodu jest tego godny: ✅ Test obywatelski, sprawdzający znajomość historii, wartości i zasad naszego kraju oraz stopień integracji z naszym społeczeństwem. ✅ Podpisanie aktu lojalności wobec państwa polskiego. ✅ Wysoki poziom znajomości języka polskiego. ✅ Minimum 8 lat pobytu w Polsce. ✅ Polska rezydencja podatkowa.

@Gepard732846 @MSWiA_GOV_PL Nie wszyscy tacy jesteśmy. Mamy w sobie arabskie korzenie, ponieważ Arabowie mieszkali w Hiszpanii przez 700 lat. Szczególnie my, mieszkańcy Andaluzji, mamy bardzo opaloną karnację

@RealRafito @MSWiA_GOV_PL Hiszpanie są biali

@Gepard732846 @MSWiA_GOV_PL Jestem Hiszpanem (nie biały), islamofobem, całkowicie się zintegrowałem i zapłaciłem prawdopodobnie znacznie więcej podatków, niż ty zapłacisz przez całe swoje życie. I co teraz?

@MSWiA_GOV_PL Zapomnieliście o najważniejszej sprawie *kandydat musi być biały

@FueronLosRusos @Bolsafacilya Se te olvidó decir si TIN o TAE. Porque te han podido meter mil vinculaciones a precio de oro

@Bolsafacilya 1,85 he firmado yo hace 2 meses.

🚨 Ya han cerrado el grifo la banca en las hipotecas, a partir de ahora caídas de precios poco a poco

@grok @Zalmore @TFTC21 How does Anthropic know which shares are unauthorised, if they were not approved to be traded in the second market?

No, Forge, Hiive and similar secondary platforms trade (or attempt to trade) actual Anthropic shares for accredited investors, not CFDs. Anthropic explicitly voids any unapproved transfers and lists both Forge and Hiive as unauthorized for new offerings—meaning buyers get no ownership rights or recognition on the books. Any synthetic or indirect products carry the same or higher risk per their policy.

Anthropic just published a support page that should terrify anyone holding its shares on the secondary market. "Any sale or transfer of Anthropic stock, or any interest in Anthropic stock, that has not been approved by our Board of Directors is void and will not be recognized on our books and records." Void. Not restricted. Not pending review. Void. That means if you bought Anthropic shares through Forge, Hiive, or any other secondary platform without board approval, you are not a stockholder. You have no stockholder rights. Your transaction is invalid. It gets worse. Anthropic says it does not permit SPVs to hold its stock. Any transfer to an SPV is void. Investment funds claiming to offer indirect exposure are "most likely relying on mechanisms that attempt to circumvent our transfer restrictions." Forward contracts, tokenized securities, synthetic exposure products, all of it potentially worthless. Their advice to investors: "Assume that it is invalid." There is a multi-billion dollar secondary market in Anthropic shares right now. Platforms are pricing the stock at $265-$1,400+ per share based on a $380 billion valuation. Real people have put real money into these positions. And Anthropic just told them none of it counts. This is the purest possible illustration of counterparty risk. You can buy a share of a company and have the company itself declare your ownership void because you bought it through the wrong channel.

gm 😂

Shein's clothes are so toxic the state of Texas is suing them. Lab testing found: - PFAS at 3,300x the EU limit in 7 jackets (no federal US limit) - Phthalates at up to 428x the legal limit (children's shoes/accessories) - Formaldehyde (toxic VOC) Until lawsuits and legislation force Big Clothing to change, find natural fiber clothes free of toxic dyes, coatings, and treatments on the Oasis app.

@Noalgos @JKT_Dyke @jameselbaor @BillAckman Yeah, I see the same. It’s pointless as European to buy $PSUS over $PSHD.L - commissions will be lower after this IPO, and it has higher discount to NAV, which should incentivise repurchases and therefore, dividend increases

@JKT_Dyke @RealRafito @jameselbaor @BillAckman it seems the portfolio of $PSUS will be similar to the London listed vehicles so why buying a fund much more expensive? Better stick to $PSHD.L

Congratulations to @BillAckman and the whole $PSUS $PS team. Now the 6th largest IPO of the last decade and among the 20 largest in U.S. history. Scale achieved, runway ahead.

@LiquidityGhoul @BillAckman And how PS benefits from giving to institutions stock with a discount?

You know what you did. You allocated to retail so institutions could then backfill by shorting the stock to oblivion and scooping up at lower levels. Over-allocated retail are weak hands. I know it. You know it. And your institutional cronies know it. Filling retail is a strategy. It’s not philanthropy.

I did not blame retail investors for PSUS’ and PS’ price drop. I did explain to the media that we had chosen to favor retail allocations over institutional orders by giving retail investors 100% allocations and cutting back institutions. In most deals, retail investors receive a smaller percentage of their orders than favored institutions. Because the stocks opened late in the day at 1:55pm, investors who received more shares than they wanted were forced to sell in the last two hours of the trading day in order to have the cash to settle their orders the following day. This likely led to dumping of the shares of both PSUS and PS before the market closed. I was not blaming retail investors. I was simply explaining what we believe had occurred. We just did not appreciate this dynamic in making our allocation decisions.

@NickNemo17 I bet 99% of the people owning it don't know the true complexity of Brookfield. And that's the risk. Once, I bought it because of its track record and the beautiful presentations, but I started digging, and it was impossible for me to understand what was going on. So I sold.

TL;DR – Brookfield ($BN/ $BAM): A tiny group of insiders (Jack Cockwell + Bruce Flatt) controls a trillion-dollar empire with just 85,000 special Class B shares. The 1.6 billion public shares you can buy? Zero voting power. They rebuilt the exact same ultra-complex spiderweb (Edper) that collapsed in the 1990s. Same accountants. Same tricks. Different name. The Flywheel
Teacher buys annuity → premium flows to Brookfield insurance → money goes into BAM-managed funds → BAM collects fat fees → dividends back to BN → sell more annuities. Fees at every turn. The teacher gets her guarantee. Brookfield gets the marks and control. The Problem
Everything runs on internal “marks” blessed by Deloitte — even when contradicted by market prices, partners (Kinder Morgan wrote down the same pipeline while Brookfield marked it up), or later defaults. •$4+ billion in related-party asset sales at “existing valuations” (Brookfield as seller, buyer, and appraiser). •$7.8 billion insurance money funneled to Brookfield PE/RE in 2024 alone. •93% of PE portfolio independently rated junk or bankrupt (Healthscope & Altera collapsed — yet “growing contribution” language right until default). •Office defaults: Chicago tower bought for $306M sold in foreclosure for $41M (87% loss). $3B+ defaults since taking property arm private. Insurance Red Flags
Statutory filings show collapsing surplus, heavy Bermuda/Vermont captives, and reinsurance counted as capital. One filing admits: without the captives, they’d fall below minimum regulatory capital. A $1.48B “backstop” from a counterparty that booked zero reserve against it. The Numbers •Distributable Earnings (the hyped number): $6.3B •Actual GAAP net income: $641M (nearly 10x gap — way wider than Blackstone/KKR/Apollo) •ROIC < WACC (every new dollar supposedly destroys value) •Trades at huge premium to peers despite declining revenue and massive debt. What’s Coming
5B+ office debt due 2026, Oaktree lock-up expiring, institutions net selling (Fidelity cut 23%), failed S&P inclusion, open SEC probes. This isn’t a bankruptcy call. It’s simpler: when the market stops believing “our marks are gospel” and “complexity = sophistication,” the valuation rerates hard toward peer multiples. No Armageddon needed — just math winning. The author is short BAM (puts) and BN equity. Full thread is a forensic deep dive sourced from filings + FT investigation. If you wouldn’t let one guy appraise his own house, underwrite his own mortgage, and insure it… why trust 45 executives doing the same with a trillion of other people’s money? Worth the read if you own it or just like seeing how these machines really work. The marks always break eventually.

@JKT_Dyke @jameselbaor @BillAckman If you had to choose one of those 3 to buy, which would you choose?

Beyond the listing venue.... $PSH is levered with term debt at the structure level and can utilise $PS' asymmetric hedging strategies, as well as holding the GSEs and $HHH prefs. Beyond these differences the portfolios are likely to look similar (same names), though not identical (different weights) at the beginning, with weights on common names converging over time.

@NGN_NE @BillAckman So what's the difference between PSHD and PSUS?

Congratulations @BillAckman Retail investor here, been investing in PSHD (both AMS and LSE) since July 2017 (despite the tax complexities - PFIC filing / QEF election, etc.). The US listing is a game-changer, and opportunity to participate in PSI, cherry on top. Thank you for your and the @PershingSquare team's efforts over these years.

See you tomorrow.

@MartyMc25202090 @elequidistante @Ramon_Rouco_ Y el ratio vivienda vs sueldo era muy bueno. Lo único que era más caro la electrónica y los coches

@elequidistante @Ramon_Rouco_ Tu padre además no pagaba el IVA de hoy, ni el IBI, ni Sucesiones, ni Donaciones, ni Ecotasas. No pagaba ni la bolsa del súper. Si recalculas verás que ahora ganamos LA MITAD

Esta mañana he encontrado una nómina vieja de mi padre revisando papeles de casa. Marzo de 1992, ingeniero jovencito con 6 años de experiencia. Casado, con dos hijos e hipoteca en Madrid. Por curiosidad me he puesto a hacer cálculos, y me ha dado permiso para compartirlos. El bruto del mes eran 615.704 pesetas. Ajustando a IPC, hoy serían 120.000 € brutos al año equivalentes. Un ingeniero con ese mismo perfil cobra ahora entre 35.000 y 45.000 €. Un tercio. Un puto tercio del sueldo real que tenía mi padre con su edad. Pero donde la trampa se ve más clara es en la fiscalidad. Mi padre, sumando IRPF y Seguridad Social, soportaba una carga fiscal efectiva del 27% sobre su bruto (24% IRPF + 2,7% SS, porque cotizaba al tope máximo). Le quedaban netos el equivalente a 87.000 €. Un ingeniero hoy con 40.000 € brutos soporta una carga total del 22% (16% IRPF + 6,5% SS) y le quedan apenas 31.000 € netos. Mi padre vivía con casi tres veces más renta disponible. En el mismo país. En la misma ciudad. ¿Que hoy se paga menos porcentaje? Lógico, ganando un tercio, claro que el porcentaje baja. Por el camino, eso sí, se cargaron las deducciones que protegían a la clase media como por ejemplo la deducción por vivienda habitual que desapareció para nuevas compras en 2013. Y si por algún milagro alcanzas hoy los 120k equivalentes que cobraba mi padre, soportarías un 35% de carga fiscal total en vez de su 27%. Ocho puntos más por el mismo sueldo real. ¿De verdad vivimos mejor? Los datos dicen una cosa. La narrativa que nos venden, otra.

@ASURAS_3_3 @elequidistante Ya quisiéramos el 10% de diezmo que se pagaba. Entre una cosa y otra, el 50% son impuestos

@elequidistante Habrán los ojos caballeros,el diezmo se queda corto con lo que tenemos hoy en los paises desarrollados,pero claro,si no te quitan el 50% del sueldo no pueden soportar los servicios públicos...eso dicen.

@HMohedano_ @IEB_Spain Cuando he leído Castañar Fund me he puesto nervioso. Menos mal que es moderador

🔥 Si estás en Madrid el próximo Jueves 7 de Mayo, no puedes perderte el próximo evento de Value Investing que organiza @IEB_Spain Gabriel Castro, CFA — Singular Bank Juan Luis Fresneda Clement — Horos AM Juan Gómez Bada — Avantage Capital Damián García — Castañar Fund 📅 Jueves 7 de mayo 🕕 18:30 h 🏛 IEB — Av. del Talgo, 5, Aravaca

This keeps getting wilder. Last November, we posted this video on a suspicious purchase of Viasat stock by a member of Congress. $VSAT is now up 758% since our reports. Not a typo: 758%

@FedexSTi @SpaceX IPO = It's Probably Overvalued. Esto va a ser un buen ejemplo de exit liquidity para empapelar a minoristas y luego caer con fuerza. Humo del bueno de Musk.

El IPO de @SpaceX va a romper todos los records si se da. Todo indica que si. Para poner en perspectiva, en 2019 el podio #1 lo conquisto Saudi Aramco con 30 billion. @spacex va por 75 billion. Con $NU levantamos “solo” 3 billion. Levels. Cuando el S-1 sea publico voy a hacer el teardown ao vivo en Neura y lo voy a explicar para que lo entienda un pibe de 10 años. Va a estar bueno. Lindo challenge.