Sabitlenmiş Tweet
New article up on PragmaticPapers.com looking at Track Ukraine, an organisation monitoring US politicians for their support of Ukraine, both in words and actions.
@TrackUkraine
pragmaticpapers.com/articles/what-…
English
ReasonRiffs
2.2K posts
ReasonRiffs
@ReasonRiffs
Degrees in philosophy and physics, doing a PhD in the latter. Other int. politics/economics/cycling/traveling/fitness/composition...
Katılım Mayıs 2025
401 Takip Edilen126 Takipçiler
because it shifts the average even higher. You're strawmanning the arguments too, this doesn't just effect the West. China is clearly concerned, for example.
The quantity of CO2 emitted by mankind is relatively easy to calculate. The fact that CO2 is a greenhouse gas was discovered in the 19th century. Putting these tow things together we would expect climate change due to our emissions.
The next step is modelling this, we've been doing this very well for decades.
The issue is tipping points have been difficult to incorporate. This is mathematically challenging given the correlation of events being included in the models. This will likely lead to conservative underestimates of trends (for example, forests struggling with draughts become CO2 emitters which then has other consequences locally that then feedsback etc.).
English
@ReasonRiffs @AaronBastani You play the game of cherry picking and project it on others. Why was 32 degrees in 1944 normal thing and in 2026 it is a reason to destroy only the west, while other countries continue living normally? And how will it impact the climate?
English
No. It was 32 degrees 82 years ago, yesterday was 34. Hence it’s a new record, which is the point.
Yesterday was less than a degree away from being the record temperature in June. It’s bizarre to downplay how warm it is for…Spring.
Sunil Sharma 🇬🇧@SunilSharmaUK
So wait the weather was the exact same temperature as 82 years ago ?! But I thought every summer was “the hottest ever” because of climate change …
English
BREAKING; Elon Musk renounces support for Restore Party and Rupert Lowe, now in talks with the Renazi Party
ADAM@adamemedia1
The man who says he wants to ban halal food has halal food at his son’s wedding. The man who says Muslims are the enemy let his son marry into a Muslim family. The man who says he is against immigration is now joined to a family of successful pro-immigration advocacy. 🤣
English
@KemiBadenoch I actually agree with this, is this an attempt to appeal to Labour voters?
English
How much more evidence does Starmer need?
Teachers, parents, medical experts, even the kids themselves are warning about the effects of social media, yet Labour are dithering.
It’s time to do the right thing and raise the age limit for social media to 16.
BBC News (UK)@BBCNews
Social media as bad for young people as smoking, top doctors say bbc.in/4nSKfun
English
I disagree on quite a lot here
— Confirm plans to bring all public services into public control : This is too much and too expensive, pick a few battles like water for this term, railways are already coming back into public control.
— Cut £300 off energy bills immediately: This will be hard to do, greater control over profiteering of energy companies could work.
— Confirm support for PR, put in the 2026 manifesto :reasonable/good (for a 2028 election).
— Introduce legislation to get grocery bills under control and remove all tax from alcohol in pubs :The loss of tax revenue wouldn't be worth it.
— Call a 6 week snap election, making sure Reform don’t have time to prepare : I can see the argument, but it reminds me of Cameron's Brexit referendum, might not pay off with immense damage to the country.
— Promise more big stuff after winning the election on cost of living, nationalisation, devolution : A lot would have to come after an election depends on progress up to that point.
— Keep Labour policies on immigration - promise further reductions and no rejoining the EU whatsoever : One of my biggest points of disagreement. Immigration being this low chronically will actually damage the economy and won't please Reform voters anyway. The UK isn't in control of global events and should never promise specific numbers.
Immigration policy should pivot to improved integration and an orderly proccessing that doesn't involve the use of hotels, with faster processing better for everyone concerned. This is both fair and voting winning.
English
If I was Burnham, after winning Makerfield, and becoming PM, this is what I’d do in my first 100 days
— Confirm plans to bring all public services into public control
— Cut £300 off energy bills immediately
— Confirm support for PR, put in the 2026 manifesto
— Introduce legislation to get grocery bills under control and remove all tax from alcohol in pubs
— Call a 6 week snap election, making sure Reform don’t have time to prepare
— Promise more big stuff after winning the election on cost of living, nationalisation, devolution
— Keep Labour policies on immigration - promise further reductions and no rejoining the EU whatsoever
I’d predict a small working majority of maybe 40 🌹
English
It is a bit frustrating seeing the use of single data points as evidence for climate change when it's about the moving average.
The number of times I have to explain this to climate change denialists, or humanities role in climate change, is frustrating.
Can we not make the same mistake on ourside, it teaches the wrong methodology and argumentation.
English
I’m starting to think that I’m the only right-winger on this platform who believes that climate change is a real phenomenon.
Not saying it hasn’t been exaggerated in the media, but I just don’t see how you can wholesale reject it.
RS Archer@archer_rs
Apparently climate change is a myth.
English
@AaronBastani Labour relying upon Restore splitting the vote should concern any reasonably minded individual.
English
Restore getting 10%, with no data, would be nuts. And I find it hard to believe.
But if that’s what they’re seeing while they canvass, then why on earth would they stop? Mockery or denigrating them won’t help.
Nigel Forrester@NigelForrester9
My guess at the current state of play from the rumours I have heard: Labour 43-47% Reform 35-40% Restore 10-12% Others negligible
English
Interestingly, organic farming methods lead to resiliance against draught. I learnt this when a farm I worked on in Belgium became one of the few farms not to need large quantities of water to survive a heat wave.
There was an aritcle about the farm, De Zaaier, in the Flemish papers because of the increased relevance given global warming.
English
I’m yet to meet anyone involved in food production - in a hands on sense - who doesn’t readily admit the climate is getting warmer and that this has consequences for their game.
A campaign by farmers? Really?
No Farmers, No Food@NoFarmsNoFoods
The 1976 UK heatwave was one of the most intense, prolonged periods of high temperatures in British history, lasting from 23 June to 27 August 1976. But no one blamed cow farts and the weather maps certainly didn’t look like a volcano had erupted over Britain.
English
@BristolSociety3 @Mr_dk @AaronBastani To the contrary, the accuracy has actually surprised many of us.
yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/04/comput…
English
@Mr_dk @ReasonRiffs @AaronBastani All I know is that the climate alarmists have been consistently wrong with their predictions my whole life,
English
It’s insane that the reality of climate change is still contested, and people are committed to ‘sides’ by virtue of negative polarisation (the left say this, I’m on the right - therefore I don’t think it’s happening.)
It’s real! Disagree about response, by all means.
Bobby@RealBlackIrish
> take one hot day on an airfield > let the sun bake the tarmac for 18 hours > produce temperature reading > OMG GLOBAL WARMING IS REAL
English
Recognising both climate change, and humanities role in it, is far from moronic. I do agree the term climate denialist is misleading though.
I'm assuming your issue is with the latter, and that you recognise that the global mean temperature is rising.
The evidence that this warming is man-made comes mainly from attribution studies: observed warming matches the expected effect of increased greenhouse gases from fossil-fuel use, land-use change, and industry, while natural factors such as solar variability and volcanoes cannot explain the trend.
The fact that CO2 is a greenhouse gas was discovered in the 19th century.
English
@Mr_dk @ReasonRiffs @AaronBastani And by the way, what the hell is a "climate denialist"?
How is it even possible to deny the climate?
That has to be the most retarded term known to man, used exclusively by morons desperately attempting to label anyone who legitimately challenges their religion.
English
If they really cared about Palestinians they would, at some point, mention the atrocities commited by Hamas against the Palestinians themselves.
"Hamas forces carried out a brutal campaign of abductions, torture and unlawful killings against Palestinians accused of “collaborating” with Israel and others during Israel’s military offensive against Gaza in July and August 2014, according to a new report by Amnesty International"
amnesty.org/en/latest/news…
English
So crazy how Palestine has just become a giant sock for these idiots to wank into
GrapeTickler@GrapeTickler
Noah Samsen hosting a debate on if Nazi terminology is OK in his Lawsuit/“Palestine” fundraiser
English
@TimInHonolulu No. Ukraine should keep hitting strategic and military targets.
English
@kinlochleven7 @PoliticsJOE_UK @SadiqKhan The AQI average last year was 53, so your own graph disproves your point.
English
@ReasonRiffs @PoliticsJOE_UK @SadiqKhan 👍 yep confirmed. Air quality still pretty skanky pre heatwave. Certainly worse now than a couple of years ago and totally undermines your graph and claim that there's been an improvement
English
Sadiq Khan: Far-right conspiracy theorists' obsession with London is EMBARRASSING.
@SadiqKhan
English
@kinlochleven7 @PoliticsJOE_UK @SadiqKhan You're comparing two data points with today. You understand what happens to pollution during a heatwave? Try comparing it with two days ago, you're just cherry picking data.
You should learn the importance of averages in making comparisions like this.
English
@ReasonRiffs @PoliticsJOE_UK @SadiqKhan I prefer raw data myself...for example
Nov 23
Mar 24
and guess what tonight the air quality shows no improvement..it's gotten worse
English
This is much needed if the EU is not to be vulnerable to blackmail by a single state, thus is much needed for its longevity.
It will also make the bloc more dynamic and responsive.
Mariska den Eelden 🇪🇺🇳🇱@eeldenden
The veto dates back to when the EU was only 6 states. Today it is outdated and undemocratic. Foreign powers can bribe one EU state to paralyze the entire Union. The system is absurd and on its way out. Qualified majority voting is not perfect, but a step in the right direction
English
@MrMouton @TheOmniLiberal What is a cock watch? Is it like a cock ring but for telling the time?
English
I humbly accept my new position on @TheOmniLiberal 's CWC (Cock Watch Council).
I appreciate you choosing me as one of your choices and will not let the community down.
Thank you for your attention to this matter.
English
All military targets, right? Right?
Russians need to seriously get on with overthrowing this broken megalomaniac.
Anton Gerashchenko@Gerashchenko_en
The moment of one of today’s Russian strikes on Kyiv. I can see that fewer and fewer people are reading news from Ukraine. I understand that on a Sunday morning, people don’t want to read about war. They want to sleep a little longer, drink good coffee, and sit in the sun. I understand that. The algorithms on X limit content about war, destruction, and suffering. You have to make an effort to even see this information. All of this is understandable on a human level. But unfortunately, if you remove Putin and the war from your information feed, they do not disappear from reality. Putin is a sadist and a maniac. He is a threat to all of humanity. There needs to be active resistance. News from Ukraine needs to be shared. People need to keep their focus. Despite a sleepless night, I’m still here. And I’m grateful to everyone who continues to stand with us. One day, we’ll drink morning coffee together in a beautiful, peaceful Kyiv.
English
@kinlochleven7 @PoliticsJOE_UK @SadiqKhan You understand what a dramatic improvement is?
You understand how bad air quality used to be in London?
English
@ReasonRiffs @PoliticsJOE_UK @SadiqKhan It's 10pm on a Sunday evening and London's air quality is garbage, get on a tube and the air is still full of toxic particles entering the lungs and bloodstream...but yeah nice ambience
English
@UkrainianAna Russia's CO2/capita is insane.
Usually it's correlated with GDP/capita but Russia's CO2 footprint is similar to the US while having the GDP/capita of Costa Rica.
English
For most people in Europe, it is simply not worth the investment.
Because we have trees, shade and buildings made out of thick stone/concrete, instead of actually plastic garbage 😌👍
And it's just not that hot.
Plus, many people live in older buildings of architectural value.
And do not want to fuck them up by installation of AC.
There are straight restrictions on installing outside units on older buildings.
Unfortunately, climate change is a bitch and it did create problems that weren't there.
Primarily, thanks to America China and russia also known as the biggest contributors to all things shite on the planet trio 😌
English
Most people who die from heat are elderly in Southern countries, particular Greece.
They are also the ones with the least AC availability.
I did question that when I stayed in Greece.
It shouldn't be as expensive there.
That aside, it's kinda rich for Americans to lecture Europeans, when you are literally the biggest contributors of said climate change that fucked up our weather 🙃
Noah Smith 🐇🇺🇸🇺🇦🇹🇼@Noahpinion
Dying of climate change to own the Americans
English