A Gentleman of Leisure

@PrognosticApex Held my VIX 4/15 30C. Up +30% yesterday AM → down -10% by close. Flipped a coin to decide if I should hold. Follow to learn more about my investment strategy.

"Feels bouncy"... ....apparently $VIX was what felt bouncy. Sometimes we eat shit in this game. This morning I'm eating shit. This is why I say keep your call positions 1/3 of your put positions when swinging up in a downward market. $VIX has developed a rather concerning cup and handle pattern as it sits just below the 2020 Plandemic trendline after having tested the 2008 GFC trendline on the 18th. $SPY SPY setting up bullish divergence on shorter time frame at the bottom of this channel. Still thinking we get a relief bounce here but I'll be less and less likely to play bounces going forward. Looking more likely that we test the lower part of the bigger picture rising wedge down near 640 before end of April, maybe even end of March if we don't get much of a bounce here. $CRUDEOIL Broke upward from that triangle, now hammer testing the breakout. My 2-3 year thesis has been $125 Oil minimum since the 1/29 peak in Silver/Oil.

@DelB0yTr0tter Dealers fighting to hold SPY 650 with -$1B gamma at 4pm

SPX is now officially below the 200SMA Today's option expiry is critical for positioning...

@options_insight How do you see that interacting with the record negative GEX and SPY 660 put gravity well into Quad Witching tomorrow? Exhaustion wins short-term or does gamma dominate?

𝗛𝗲𝗿𝗲'𝘀 𝗮 𝘀𝗶𝗴𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗜 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗰𝗸 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗺𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗿𝗲𝘁𝗮𝗶𝗹 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗵𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝗻𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝗵𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗱 𝗼𝗳: 𝗳𝗶𝘅𝗲𝗱 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗸𝗲 𝘃𝗼𝗹. SPX makes a new local low. VIX ticks higher. Looks bearish. But if you check the implied vol at a specific strike (say 6400), it's flat. Actually drifting lower. That divergence is the first crack. When spot is making new lows but the vol surface refuses to reprice higher at the same strikes, someone is stepping in to sell premium at those levels. The marginal seller of volatility has appeared. That's institutional money saying "this is overdone." VIX can stay elevated because of skew and term structure effects. But fixed strike vol is cleaner. It strips out the moving parts and tells you what's actually happening to risk perception and options supply/demand at a given level. In my experience, fixed strike vol rolling over while spot makes new lows has been one of the most reliable exhaustion signals I use. It often calls the turn before price does.

@PrognosticApex Nice. How do you see the $4.1B put wall at SPY 660 playing out into Quad Witching Friday? Still favoring more downside?

These 30min charts of $SPY and $VIX are surgical. Closed the puts +40%, closes the VIX calls +30%. Switched to SPY calls(very small position as the larger structure is ugly) Will flip back to puts in a few days.

@DelB0yTr0tter Respect the put-unwind loop. How do you see that clashing with next week’s CTA forced selling + heavy short-gamma pressure into Quad Witching Friday? Think dealer buyback wins out post-OPEX or does gamma dominate first? Curious on your base case for SPX/vol next 1-2 weeks.

MACRO Those index puts (record volumes - I posted about it earlier this week) are haemorrhaging theta as the S&P grinds sideways. Every unwind removes downside convexity and forces dealer buybacks, rebuilding positive delta/gamma and reinforcing spot stability. Once that feedback loop starts, positioning flips. De-grossed portfolios don’t stay derisked. Not optional. Idle capital is a performance drag. It increases tracking error. It puts mandates at risk. Capital doesn’t get 'returned'... it gets redeployed. Use it or lose it.

somebody post that meme of the bloke on the bike tripping himself up...

* leans in and whispers * It can go much higher first

@kavern23 @DVSignals True. Without strong investor buying we'd have a surplus on fabrication alone. But Silver Institute is forecasting that buying to rise 20% this year, not drop. The last 5 years of drawdowns matter too. That's why they call it "structural."

@RedactedWA @DVSignals That -67m ounce potential deficit includes the assumption investors are going to buy over 225m ounces of bullion/coins plus etf funds keep piling more physical ounces. Without investors pumpin into silver their is a surplus. For many decades this has always taken silver down.

$SILVER I’ve been on record for over a week now calling for (sub) 72 by month-end, based on multiple forms of confluence and a few other tracking tools I use. But the bigger question was never just whether we hit 72; it was always what happens after we get there. I’ve said consistently that 72 does not automatically mean “the low is in,” especially not in this macro backdrop. Now add the next layer: GSR is breaking out, which to me means $GOLD is likely to outperform silver from here, even if gold itself still corrects lower into the low 4,000s. If you run simple ratio math - say 4,000 gold and 75 GSR - you get roughly 53–54 silver, which lands right in that 54–56 washout zone I flagged earlier on Substack 👇 So yes, 72 has been the first major waypoint for me. But from there, I want to see how silver behaves in real time.. because with GSR breaking higher and gold still likely correcting, a move into the low-to-mid 50s on silver is no longer some fringe scenario. It is a very live possibility before any bigger upside phase resumes. And for those who want to revisit that framework, this is the report I published on February 22 where I laid that case out in more detail: deepvaluesignals.substack.com/subscribe Search for: DVS Weekly Update 2026-8: Secular Bulls, Choppy Tape

@RedactedWA 21.50 to the penny lol

Let's see if we can tag overhead resistance on SPY between now FOMC. Targets for max pain essentially reached already. Hope you've been layering. $SPY $VIX

@alphaticaio @CheddarFlow

We've been tracking $660 for three weeks straight. It's been the line every single session of this selloff. Here's what makes it different from a normal put wall. The -$2.3B in net GEX at $660 means dealers are massively short gamma at that level. If price reaches $660, dealers don't support it. They accelerate through it. A put wall only acts as "support" if the puts are being sold, where dealers buy shares to hedge. At this concentration, the majority is long puts, which means dealers are short shares against them and SELL more as price approaches. The put wall is a trapdoor, not a floor. We watched $660 go from -$300M on March 10 to -$384M on March 13 morning to -$558M by midday to -$725M by Friday's close. It grew 142% in one session as price approached it. It feeds on itself. The closer price gets, the heavier the gamma becomes. The 1-day expected move shows a min of $664.67. That puts $660 just outside one standard deviation. The Fed tomorrow is the catalyst that either keeps price above $665 or sends it into the $660 gravity well. If it breaks, look at what's below. $659 has -$267M and the accelerators stack uninterrupted to $655. There's no positive GEX level below $660 to catch it. $660 isn't support. It's the event horizon. $SPY

$SPY $2.3 BILLION Put Wall @ 660 Huge support level if retested Bears want to take it down below for a flush

@GoldForecast P/E is a worthless metric for valuing miners. @DonDurrett explains why in detail. Real FCF at $80 silver already proves your charts wrong. The model’s still broken on production and leverage.

@RedactedWA Talk all you want, but pe is still 20.

Current status of Hecla Mining at a PE of 20. This is not cheap. Expecting another -30% drop.

@GoldForecast Never said capex drops. Hecla's 2026 guidance already includes $255-279M capex (actually up this year) plus $15-16.25 AISC. Your model still lowballs production, ignores negative cash costs from byproducts, and misses leverage. Real FCF at $80 silver proves both charts wrong.

@RedactedWA You saying capex will drop a lot?

@GoldForecast @MacroFinesse Paging @DonDurrett

@MacroFinesse Hecla unfortunately has only downside. It needs $200 silver to even have any chance of going higher.

@DelB0yTr0tter x.com/i/status/20338…

Explosive stuff. You're definitely not going to see this in the news... thats for sure.

Exodus inducing posts only from now on lol

Observation - every time I post hard factual truths it triggers people and leads to an exodus

@PrognosticApex 100%. Deepwater supplies are tight after a decade of underinvestment; irreplaceable assets packing real pricing power. Markets obsess over GAAP, but capital's eyeing those forward cash flows. Early-cycle torque on the horizon. Long.

My only problem with $RIG is that I didn't buy it at $3 last fall when I was looking at the breakout/retest of it's bottoming pattern. 😭😭😭😭😭 It's monthly chart has a massive long term breakout that I'm hoping it retests...at which point I'd load leap calls. No idea if we get that retest but I'm ok with accepting that I missed this one for now and am patient.

$VIX $SPY Dropping a thread here with lots of charts $VIX wants higher, $SPY wants lower. Oil is set to outperform silver(even if silver does go higher), which benefits the energy complex(nat gas, uranium, and batter metals), as well as potash(agriculture). Full thesis with charts and details below. First...the red trendline on the $VIX is from the April 2025 peak. We tested it several times since then, and finally broke ABOVE it and retested+bounced off it this week. $VIX is chartable, and signals like this tell us volatility is on the rise ahead. Combined with the Monthly, Weekly, and Daily SPY charts and we can see a selloff is coming. I'm raising some cash and have some puts so I can buy up the oil/battery metal/potash thesis as we get sale prices ahead.