Redwood capital

open.substack.com/pub/redwoodcap… GPT-2 → GPT-4 was a 100,000x compute multiplier in four years. Aschenbrenner thinks we get another 100,000x by 2027. Part 2 walks through the math, what it implies for AGI timing, and why $BE/$CEG/$EQT have already moved on it: @leopoldasch @dwarkesh_sp

open.substack.com/pub/redwoodcap… $BE $SNDK

I probably ask this every few months, but what are your favorite physical asset/infrastructure names? Waste collection? $WM $RSG $WCN Quarries? $VMC $MLM Rails? $UNP $CP Pipelines? $EPD $KMI Industrial gases? $LIN $APD Maybe $AMZN for their e-commerce + DC footprint?

Current semi stocks ranking by forward PE / forward PEG note - directional only, data might vary depending on sources or the method

It is not too late @ryancohen $GME , a list of alternatives from February 2nd: $NXST 6.3B $SAM 2.3B $SFM 6.9B $W 14B $BRKR 7B $MOH 10B $BIRK 7B $SFM 6.9B $SLM 5.5B $NAVI 1B $FMCC 4.8B $FNMA 9.7B $DOM LN 1B $FND 7.4B $POOL 9.5B $KNSL 9.2B $NEU 6.3B $FTDR 4.3B $DOM 14B $OSIS 4.6B $IDT 1.4B $JACK 400mm $SIG 3.8B $ETSY 5.5B $OVV 11B $TDOC 1B $ROKU 15B $GOOS 1.2B $WYNN 11.3B $BEN 13.5B $CMA 12B $HP 3.6B $ADT 6.7B $RH 3.8B $M 5.3B $MGM 9.2B $AGO 4.5B $ANF 4.2B $WTM 5.2B

AI/AGI primers

Not counting his 10% position in INTC Calls, Leopold is up 2 billion on 5.5 billion in the last 29 days... $BE $CRWV $INTC $LITE $CORZ $APLD $IREN $CIFR

A must-read for every investor. open.substack.com/pub/kakashiii1…

$QVCGA/$QVCGP

QVCGA/QVCGP valuation projections

$QVCGA,QVCGP . Looks like the intercompany claim settlement of qvc against top co (qvc group) drained all the liquidity from top co and make QVCGA and QVCGP worthless

$QVCGA $GVCGP QVC post emergence capital structure

$GLIBK - I recently discussed John Malone’s plan to turn GCI Liberty into a “new Liberty Media” with @mihaljevic. Our conversation covered: 1. John Malone’s vision for GCI to become “a new Liberty Media” 2. Three advantages GCI has as an acquisition vehicle 3. The existing Alaska business’ dominant competitive position 4. Why Starlink is a manageable risk 5. Why I see well over 100% upside over three years Timestamps to the Podcast · [01:45] Introduction to GCI Liberty · [05:50] The spin-off and why this opportunity exists · [07:00] John Malone: vision, insider buying, and the $300m rights offering · [10:15] The Alaska telecom cash cow and dominant position · [16:00] The Universal Service Fund and ‘use-it-or-lose-it’ subsidies · [22:10] Starlink risk deep dive · [32:30] Advantaged acquirer: Huge tax shields, $2bn buying power, best-in-class management · [35:40] Valuation scenarios with acquisitions · [43:20] Q&A ➡️ Go to Hidden Gems Investing to view the podcast (link in the next post) Thank you John and @manualofideas for having me on! ------ GCI Liberty (GLIBK) spun out from Liberty Broadband in July 2025. The company is Alaska’s dominant telecom operator with 90% market share in its key business yet trades for 10x underlying FCF. Investors have overlooked the spinoff because Liberty Broadband was 13x larger and is being acquired. But John Malone did not ignore the spinoff. He is Chairman of GCI, owns 7.2% of the company, and has been buying stock. He structured the spin to turn GCI into an advantaged acquirer and “the beginning of a new Liberty Media”. GCI is an ideal acquisition vehicle because it benefits from two substantial tax shields and has ~$2bn of acquisition capacity over three years, greater than its current market cap. We see limited risk over three years given GCI trades on 10x FCF, our Base case has 155% upside, and the Bull case is that we are at the beginning of GCI being transformed into an advantaged acquirer. $GLIBA $CHTR

I'd like to tell you a quick story of how I learned a very valuable, and very painful lesson in 2008 I had a 💰 windfall This was during the great finance crisis, the Covid of that era. I had nothing better to do 🤷‍♂️ and to relieve that boredom and regain the thrill, I started trading stocks. I discovered a little co called intuitive surgical, I think I was on one of their very first demonstration of the potential of the da Vinci. It was before the company really took off, I think it was around early 2008, but whatever. I bought a ton of the stock and I mean a ton If I were to carry the stock certificates it would've been heavy. The stock went up a dollar or so, I scalped it and took a profit 💥 BOOM $$$ what did I do next? I saw some Chinese solar stocks buzzing and I decided to get a trade on them. I captured a small gain in intuive surgical and a huge loss on ‘China fun’ and the rest of the buzzy solar stocks. Intuitive surgical became the medical $tsla Lessons should be painful. I invested in tsla heavy from 2012, more in 2014 and so on and soaked up a lot of short selling stock and endless bad news. Ditto what was happening to my position in Facebook. I learned to endure Buy what you believe in, it’s like buying a house and seeing its exquisite potential. I'm sharing this for myself, you can have it if you want it. The future is coming faster than you think. It’s not a sci-fi story - cos you’ll be living it. It’s not a book you can put down. Lastly, to me and to you… Never, ever, short America

a16z: The Power Brokers There is this story about Marc Andreessen that I think perfectly captures a16z. in 2015, when New Yorker writer Tad Friend sat down to breakfast with Marc Andreessen while writing Tomorrow’s Advance Man. Friend had just heard from a rival VC who wanted to get a word in: that a16z’s funds were so large, and ownership percentages so small1, that to get 5-10x aggregate returns across its first four funds, they’d need their aggregate portfolio to be worth $240-480 billion. “When I started to check the math with Andreessen,” Friend writes, “He made a jerking-off motion and said ‘Blah-blah-blah. We have all the models—we’re elephant hunting, going after big game!’” The aggregate portfolio did not end up being worth $240-480 billion. a16z Funds 1-4 had a total enterprise value of $853 billion at distribution or latest post-money valuation. Since distribution, Facebook alone has added $1.5 trillion in market cap. Some form of this pattern keeps playing out: a16z makes a crazy bet on the future. Those in the know say it’s stupid. Wait some years. Turns out it’s not stupid! Which is why, as a16z announces $15 billion in fresh funds, it is probably a mistake to dismiss them as greedy or stupid. It's probably worth understanding just exactly what IT'S TRYING TO BUILD. That's what I do in today's not boring deep dive: a16z: The Power Brokers