John Guardiano

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John Guardiano

John Guardiano

@ResCon1

John Guardiano: writer, analyst, investor, observer—the antithesis of an influencer. Retweets=1 of 4 things: news, interest, agreement, or disagreement.

Arlington, Virginia Katılım Aralık 2009
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John Guardiano
John Guardiano@ResCon1·
The American war aim in Iran ought to be elimination of the country’s Islamist regime. Worryingly, that does not appear to be the case. The American strategy to achieve this war aim ought to involve three lines of effort: 1. Destroy Iran’s military capabilities and military production infrastructure. 2 Strangle the country economically so that it has no choice but to submit to American will. 3. Aid and assist opposition forces in Iran with weapons and communications technologies so that they can overthrow their country’s Islamist regime. This aim and this strategy are utterly achievable. Yet it remains unclear whether President Chump understands this and is committed to winning the war. Too often, Chump has seemed eager not to win the war, but to strike a “peace deal” with supposedly moderate elements within the regime. Wake up, Donald! Smell the coffee and get with the program. Fight to win or don’t fight at all. Got it? Get it? Understand, Donald? Good. Now get it done.
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John Guardiano
John Guardiano@ResCon1·
Tucker and his online lackeys are not serious people, and they do not argue in good faith. Instead, they constantly project their own sins and errors onto their political opponents. This clip is a perfect example. Tucker’s opponents are not merely wrong or mistaken. They are, he insists, “demonic” and eager to see people killed. Please. This is unserious and unbecoming. And it does absolutely nothing to advance the public dialogue and debate. Is Tucker the victim of a demonic attack, as @roddreher suggests he may be? I don’t know. It’s possible. He certainly appears to be suffering from serious mental illness. So he certainly has demons to deal with. But whether those demons are the product of a chemical imbalance or a supernatural force, I don’t know. And frankly, I don’t care. What I do care about is that Tucker and his lackeys are poisoning our public dialogue and debate and manifestly harming the health and vitality of the Republican Party.
Justin@JustinUSA

Tucker Carlson and Jack Posobiec viciously attacked those who preferred Marco Rubio over JD Vance for VP. Tucker called Rubio’s supporters a “force that needs to be excised from the Republican Party.” Posobiec told them to go find another “island of misfits.” Both men also agreed that these people are into “Stalinism.” It’s become abundantly clear that Tucker and Posobiec only want to make trouble, radicalize people in the party, and ensure Republicans lose elections. They need to be called out for the frauds they are and shouldn’t be tolerated in any way.

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John Guardiano retweetledi
Peter Baker
Peter Baker@peterbakernyt·
Trump is now all but the most unpopular second-term president at this stage of their tenure in the history of polling. The only exception: Nixon had even less public support at this stage but at that point he was just days away from resigning. nytimes.com/2026/08/01/us/…
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John Guardiano
John Guardiano@ResCon1·
The alternative course of action, of course, is to seize Kharg Island and assume control of Iranian oil and its oil-production facilities. But Chump is too weak and timid to do that. So the next-best course of action is to deny Iran the ability to produce and export oil. Bite the bullet. Get it done. Now.
John Guardiano@ResCon1

They’re bluffing. Can the regime inflict some damage on the oil production facilities of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states? Yes, of course. But its ability to do so has been severely degraded. Bite the bullet now and finish them off. When the United States and Israel are done, Iran should have no ability to produce oil. Get it done and watch the regime collapse. Simple.

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John Guardiano
John Guardiano@ResCon1·
Lowry and Thiessen both make fair points, but they miss the more fundamental problem with Bush in Iraq and Chump in Iran: Both presidents had flawed strategies for the wars they were fighting, and both thought they could win those wars on the cheap. Bush thought knocking off Hussein would be enough. He thought we could topple the regime and come home. Wrong. Chump thought bombing Iran would be enough. He thought we could destroy its military and come home. Wrong. Bush, to his credit, recognized his mistake and embraced a winning—albeit not pretty—strategy. Chump needs to do the same. The problem for Chump is that, unlike Bush, he does not appear capable of the introspection necessary to acknowledge that he made a mistake and needs to change course. @RichLowry @marcthiessen
Marc Thiessen@marcthiessen

Completely different situations. We had 150,000 boots on the ground and occupied Iraq. We have far more limited objectives in Iran — to setback its pursuit of nuclear weapons and ability to threaten its neighbors with annihilation — most of which have been achieved or are within reach. The flaw in Iran was not the war, but the ceasefire and negotiations in hopes of a deal that will never come. We can finish the job militarily and declare victory whenever we want.

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Meaghan Mobbs
Meaghan Mobbs@mobbs_mentality·
I’m going to tell everyone a story. In 2020, I worked for the Trump-Pence campaign. Proudly. And for those who have memory-holed early, pre-pandemic 2020, things looked very good for re-election. The economy was booming. Americans were largely satisfied. The fundamentals were very strong. Then COVID happened. But something else happened too. In July 2020, the New York Times reported that Russia’s GRU Unit 29155 had offered bounties for successful attacks on US soldiers in Afghanistan. The administration downplayed it. The campaign downplayed it. Eventually, the Biden administration did too. But that summer I watched veteran social media erupt. This wasn’t passing outrage. It was deep, sustained anger. I flagged it for the campaign because it was obvious this issue resonated in a way many people inside politics didn’t appreciate. Then VoteVets, a major left-leaning veterans PAC, leaned into it with devastating ads. The outrage became a conflagration. President Trump still overwhelmingly won veterans in 2020. But in the states where it mattered, we lost ground compared to 2016. We should not have lost those points based on President Trump’s record over his first four years. The early polling reflected that. So the moral of the story is twofold. First, from a national security perspective, Russia is our adversary. They have repeatedly sought to kill Americans, target our servicemembers, and undermine our interests. We ignore or explain away that reality at our own peril. Second, from a political perspective, the instinct to minimize or dismiss every report of Russian hostility is a losing proposition. Americans, especially veterans and military families, take attacks on our troops personally. They should. Some of our soldiers have came home in body bags and that is not something you spin your way around, or dismiss. Our polling @IWF found nearly 9 in 10 voters are outraged by Russian military support to Iran. The administration needs to take this seriously.
Michael Weiss@michaeldweiss

Russia is sharing valuable electronic intel with Iran, officials say, as U.S. war drags on nbcnews.com/politics/natio… via @nbcnews

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Jim Sciutto
Jim Sciutto@jimsciutto·
The U.S. pullback from Ukraine has been clear and measurable since Trump returned to office in cratering military assistance and pressure to cede ground. But the decline in air defense help - just as Russia amps up missile attacks - has been the most tangible and visceral. It is a nightly crisis for Ukrainians.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський@ZelenskyyUa

Since last night, response efforts have been underway in Kyiv and the surrounding region following Russia’s strike. There were numerous fires across the city. Seven districts were affected, and, as usual, the Russians struck ordinary residential buildings. Eighteen residential buildings, a school, the Lithuanian Embassy, and infrastructure facilities were damaged. As of now, nine people have been reported killed in this attack. My condolences to their families and loved ones. Dozens of people were injured. Medical teams are helping everyone who needs it. Overnight, the Russians launched 35 missiles at Ukraine, including 27 ballistic missiles, as well as 185 attack drones of various types. Kyiv was the primary target, but strikes also hit the Dnipro, Sumy, Kharkiv, and Poltava regions. Only one ballistic missile was intercepted, simply because there are no interceptors for the Patriot systems. And it is this shortage of ballistic missile interceptors that only encourages Russia to launch such attacks that take human lives. It is critical that partners hear that these capabilities are needed not somewhere in stockpiles for hypothetical scenarios, but here and now, to contain and stop the Russian war in Ukraine. Every package of ballistic missile interceptors saves the lives of our people. And every night without them results in more casualties. I thank everyone who is working to strengthen our defenses.

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John Guardiano
John Guardiano@ResCon1·
A future American president who is faithful to the ideals of our republic will denounce this “deal” as illegitimate and unenforceable because it was imposed under duress, while Ukraine was at war and fighting for its very survival. That president will renegotiate the agreement in accordance with longstanding American values—goodwill, cooperation, mutual respect, and mutual benefit—which Chump has repudiated.
KyivPost@KyivPost

US President Donald Trump stated that a bilateral agreement signed in April 2025 gives the US access to Ukraine’s rare earth minerals "at any time." He characterized the deal, negotiated following months of talks, as highly favorable to Washington. kyivpost.com/post/81514

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John Guardiano
John Guardiano@ResCon1·
Sigh. This is why Chump employs weak and timid half-measures against Iran: because he mistakenly measures success or failure in war by how many Americans are killed. No, Donald. Casualty rates are not the measure by which we judge success or failure in war. We judge success or failure by whether we impose our will on the enemy and achieve our strategic objectives. Because of your weak and erratic leadership, the United States has done neither. If Franklin Delano Roosevelt had followed your approach, we never would have won World War II. If Lincoln had followed your approach, we never would have won the Civil War. Fight to win—or don’t fight at all.
Republicans against Trump@RpsAgainstTrump

Q: On Iran, how long is it gonna take to resolve what's happening? Trump: It's always difficult. Don't forget, we did Venezuela; nobody talks about it, in less than a day. We lost nobody. With Iran, depending on definition, we’re at 16- 18 people

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Phillips P. OBrien
Phillips P. OBrien@PhillipsPOBrien·
When I said this on July 9, when Trump first "promised" the Patriot license to Ukraine, I was accused of being an alarmist, of TDS, of not admitting Trump was pivoting to Ukraine. Amazing how quiet those voices are now....
Phillips P. OBrien@PhillipsPOBrien

When it comes time to write the history of what happened yesterday, it will be understood that Trump wriggled out of providing Ukraine any help defending itself against Russian ballistic missile now--and in its place substitued a vague pledge of possible support in years.

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Aaron Blake
Aaron Blake@AaronBlake·
Multiple Dem Senate candidates are winning 20%+ of non-MAGA Republicans, per recent Fox News polls: Talarico (TX): 24% Turek (IA): 23% Ossoff (GA): 23% Cooper (NC): 20%
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John Guardiano
John Guardiano@ResCon1·
Yes, but ask yourself why. I would submit it is because Chance is an awful politician who almost certainly will lose badly in 2028, thus forfeiting the White House to a far-left progressive. Rubio, by contrast, has a legitimate shot at winning the White House in 2028. He is a far better politician and a much more compelling candidate.
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Byron York
Byron York@ByronYork·
Boy, are the knives out for JD Vance.
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John Guardiano
John Guardiano@ResCon1·
Megyn Kelly is not wrong about the isolationism and noninterventionism of young conservatives and young Republicans. But she is wrong to think that this is a settled and fixed viewpoint that can’t change. Young conservatives and Republicans don’t know what they don’t know. They don’t know just how bad and dangerous the world can become for America, Americans, and American interests. They don’t know that the choice we face is not a binary one between invading and occupying countries and nonintervention. That is a false choice. In truth, we can and should work closely, in-country and on the ground, with indigenous forces to effect regime change and achieve positive outcomes in enemy nations such as Iran. That’s what we did in Syria, to good effect. The bottom line: young conservatives and Republicans need to be educated to see the light—to see the wisdom of an active and assertive U.S. foreign policy. Simply accepting and bowing to their misguided foreign-policy views is a disservice to them, the Republican Party, and the United States of America. @megynkelly @NoahCRothman @continetti @EliLake @michaelbd
Justin@JustinUSA

Megyn Kelly says the future of the Republican Party is pure isolationism. She claims that is the only way they’ll win elections, because young people are opposed to any type of foreign intervention. Someone should remind them that having allies and standing up against enemies is “America First.”

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John Guardiano
John Guardiano@ResCon1·
Of course, another option that the doves and pseudo-hawks don’t consider is a strategy designed to win: employing all elements of national power—including, yes, ground troops or “boots on the ground”—to eliminate the regime. No, this does not mean a full-scale invasion or occupation of Iran. Yes, it does mean seizing key strategic territory, including Kharg Island, in and around the Strait of Hormuz. And no, the oil and energy markets will not be irreparably damaged. They are strong and resilient and will rebound fairly quickly. As always, the best option for American policymakers is to pursue a strategy designed to win our wars—and to win them as quickly as possible.
Dan Shapiro@DanielBShapiro

Marc, the President took your advice for several weeks, and it led directly into the cul-de-sac you describe. Now we are stuck with only bad options: more tit-for-tat escalations and occasional negotiations on the Strait; the major escalation you prescribe, which will come at high cost and make the energy shocks thus far look like the warm-up act; or an MOU-like effort to buy the Iran off to open the Strait in exchange for massive sanctions relief. No wonder he is stuck, but also no wonder he is resisting your preferred option.

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