Quantum Research

Welcome. Read this once. Quantum Research builds quantitative decision systems for cryptocurrency markets. No predictions. No hype. No screenshots. We focus on structure, probabilistic thinking, and long-term edge. If you’re looking to be told what to buy, this account is not for you. If you value clarity, patience, and independent judgment, stay.

@Alphractal Bitmine ETH treasury is 88% staked so the unstaked float absorbing that 431M outflow is way thinner than the headline reads

We pulled the ETH Smart Money Flow Index this morning — the ETH-exclusive metric most traders don't even know exists. The reading on May 22 tells the story nobody is covering. 𝗦𝗘𝗧𝗨𝗣. The headlines are brutal. $431.86M in ETH ETF outflows over 8 sessions (May 11–20). ETH lost $2,200 support. Tom Lee's crypto spring thesis getting dunked on hourly. Consensus: ETH is done as the L1 leader. 𝗙𝗥𝗜𝗖𝗧𝗜𝗢𝗡. Spot flows exiting. ETF flows exiting. Price bleeding. Every public dashboard agrees — capitulation. So why does our Smart Money Flow Index on ETH show a 7-day climb of +18% net inflow? Because Smart Money Flow doesn't read ETF wrappers or aggregate exchange balances. It reads the wallet cohort that owns the largest non-exchange ETH positions and tracks where THEY route on-chain liquidity. ETH-exclusive metric. The data: largest cohort wallets net-added ETH on 9 of the last 12 sessions. Same cohort started bridging to Hyperliquid and Base in size during the May 14 dip. Not selling — repositioning. Same playbook they ran in October 2023 before ETH ripped from $1,500 to $4,100. 𝗥𝗘𝗦𝗢𝗟𝗨𝗧𝗜𝗢𝗡. This is why single-metric theses fail on ETH. ETF outflows look bearish alone. Smart Money Flow looks bullish alone. Stack them and the picture is obvious: retail and ETF allocators are selling under $2,200. The cohort that ACTUALLY moved ETH in the last two cycles is buying it from them. We're not saying ETH rips tomorrow. We're saying the cohort that matters has been a net buyer for 9 of the last 12 sessions while the front-page narrative screams sell. That's the divergence. That's the setup. That's the only chart that matters when consensus is wrong. 𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝗧𝗔𝗞𝗘𝗔𝗪𝗔𝗬. ETF flows are a wrapper. Exchange flux is a wrapper. The only ETH metric that tracks the actual moving money is one nobody else publishes. We do. And right now it's telling us this dip is being eaten quietly by the same wallets that bought the last bottom. Full Smart Money Flow chart → app.alphractal.com

Sminston's model has tracked Bitcoin's floor since 2015. The chart doesn't predict tops or buy zones. It frames how much of current price action is panic vs. trend. Useful context for weeks like this.

@TechDev_52 STH MVRV just printed below 1 right here, same Q2 2023 base print before the macro cycle resumed up

Last cycle top was in 2021. And the fun part of this one *finally* looks about ready to get started.

@TheRealPlanC ETF cohort cost basis sits at 82.1k so spot ETF buyers this cycle are underwater here, 74.5k holds or that cohort capitulates

Bitcoin holding key support, not random. Very positive that Bitcoin bounced at $74,500. Support from April 2025, is $74,500 to $76,000.

@JA_Maartun @cryptoquant_com bybit funding flipped green right as taker delta turned positive, classic late-cycle retail long signature, they always wick

Bybit apes pushing massive longs again. Last two time, they got owned ☠️

@cryptoquant_com @MorenoDV_ STH MVRV below 1 lines up with this exhaustion read, same Q2 2023 setup that marked the local low before the next leg

Bitcoin's Fund Flow Ratio Returns to the Zone That's Marked Every Major Turn “Bitcoin is approaching a decision zone: either demand remains weak, and the compression reflects apathy, or sell-side exhaustion becomes the foundation for the next recovery phase.” – By @MorenoDV_

@glassnode @ColpyFi below the 80.7-81.5k pin dealers flip short gamma, so downside extends and any squeeze gets faded into 81.5k

BTC broke back below $78K after being rejected near the recent local range highs. Here’s what BTC options data shows on positioning, volatility expectations, and sentiment beneath the surface.

@TechDev_52 sth mvrv sub-1 mirrors the q2 2023 base, that one ran 4x before topping, the analog plays through 2026

@therationalroot etf cohort cost basis at $82.1k says institutions accumulated through the feb crash, that's the floor explaining why $80k holds

During Q1 and the February crash, the number of reporting institutions allocating to #Bitcoin increased!

@sminston_with $10b shorts stacked above spot vs $28m longs below, the 200sma reclaim is the path of least resistance into june

Another excellent analysis estimating a June Golden Cross for Bitcoin, this one by SuperBro. We went over the stats and implications for this last week, looking forward to the remainder of the year and beyond. x.com/i/status/20582…

@TedPillows monthly red candle but $10b shorts stacked above spot vs $28m longs below, squeeze setup not capitulation

$BTC monthly candle looks horrible now. Still has one week to close, but if it closes in red, things could get ugly.

@GreeksLive p/c 0.66 with max strike rolling from $78.5k to $81.5k next cycle, dealer gamma flip is the real signal, gex still +$1.1b

May 22 Options Data 21,000 BTC options expired, with a put-call ratio of 0.66, a maximum strike price of $78,500, and a notional value of $1.6 billion. 129,000 ETH options expired, with a put-call ratio of 0.92, a maximum strike price of $2,200, and a notional value of $280 million. This week, Bitcoin ended its one-and-a-half-month rally, but support levels remain relatively strong. Market activity was subdued with low investor interest; less than 5% of BTC options expired this week, while only 5% of ETH options also expired. The BTC settlement volume was modest, with the maximum pain point close to the spot price, and the Gamma/pin effect was more pronounced near expiration; ETH’s settlement volume is only half that of last week, with the spot price below the maximum pain point. The brief rise in the proportion of ETH options this month has ended, and IV is likely to decline in the short term after settlement. Looking at key option metrics, Skew continues to decline slightly. IV for major maturities has dropped significantly compared to last week, with the decline exceeding that of RV, resulting in an increase in VRP. Bitcoin’s IV across major maturities has fallen below 35% across the board, while ETH’s IV across major maturities has also fallen below 50%, with short-term levels expected to drop further. Volume is dominated by structured trades, with whales continuously building short-term, low-cost protective positions. Volatility expectations are low, and overall market enthusiasm is below expectations. This article uses the Options Terminal to assist with market analysis and provide real-time insights into the latest options market conditions. Try it now 👉 terminal.glvs.ai

@SantimentData btc dominance at 60.98% explains the eth flush, but bitmine staying 88% staked says the conviction tier isn't capitulating

📉 Ethereum sentiment has flipped hard, and retail has jumped from crypto’s #2 market cap quickly. ETF outflows, Foundation exits, slowing network growth, and nonstop bearish narratives have traders questioning $ETH like never before. Here’s our take. 👇 app.santiment.net/insights/read/…

@cryptoquant_com @MorenoDV_ fund flow ratio retesting q2 2023 lows with sth mvrv sub-1, sell-side exhaustion fits the data better than apathy

@glassnode @ColpyFi gex still +$1.1b with max strike $81.5k, dealers net long gamma into the rejection, vol gets sold not bought above that pin

@100trillionUSD sth mvrv below 1 mirrors the q2 2023 setup, etf cost basis $82.1k acting as magnet not ceiling, $60k retest fading

Was Februari $60k the bottom of this bitcoin bear market, and does BTC go up from here? Or, is the bear market bottom yet to come, and below $60k?

@KillaXBT gex sits +$1.1b at the $81.5k max strike, dealer hedging in that regime tends to drag spot up into the strike, the 77.6k short is fighting structural delta flow

We’ve swept the lows. I’m still holding the swing short from 77.6K, and I’m also in the hedge long as mentioned. Ideally, I want to see $BTC reclaim the previous wick low. Within my plan, I’ve got additional entries for the hedge long if we get a slightly deeper retracement (as illustrated in previous update) I’m essentially sacrificing some profits on the short in case Bitcoin fills the 79K gap. If I’m wrong on the hedge long, invalidation is just below 74K. As always, I run manual stops. It gives me flexibility to read price action and candle closes in real time and adjust accordingly, similar to how I held the short through the deviation to 83K, which is now back in small profit. It’s time to start paying attention.

@Alphractal $432m of etf outflows sounds brutal until you check that bitmine's eth treasury is 88% staked, the off-etf accumulation is absorbing nearly the same flow

@SantimentData bitmine's eth treasury is 88% staked which keeps a big chunk of float locked even while sentiment caves, the actively-tradable supply doing price discovery is way thinner than market cap suggests

@cryptoquant_com etf cohort cost basis sits around $82.1k so calling them 'net sellers' here reads more like underwater capitulation than orderly distribution, that's not how 2022 tops printed

Bitcoin hit a critical resistance level just as spot demand weakened and US spot ETFs turned into net sellers. The rally lost its foundation at the exact level where previous bear market rallies failed.