Ricardo Reyes-Heroles

Week WON

Bolivia's Economy on the Brink americasquarterly.org/article/bolivi…

A few years ago, Christina Skinner and I published “Laboratories of Central Banking,” in the Review of Banking and Financial Law. A Mercatus policy brief on the paper is recently making the rounds and garnering some controversy, so I wanted to make a few comments. (Thread)

I got to organize the @nber International Trade and Macroeconomics meeting with the amazing Yan Bai: nber.org/conferences/si… It's tomorrow afternoon and for those of you without access to the Royal Sonnesta, it's on youtube: youtube.com/nbervideos

I'm thrilled! Thanks for including my work with @pcubab, @Albert_Queralto, and Mikael Scaramucci in such an amazing program. Looking forward to tomorrow's session!

Another timely one. How do changes in trade frictions (like tariffs) affect inflation? by @RichRHC and a team from @federalreserve Key finding is that when the tariff hits intermediate goods (which is 40 percent of U.S. imports), inflation is more persistent.

Headed to NBER SI. In addition to seeing the latest research, I'm looking forward to the panels on "The Future Impacts Of Current Trade Policy" (@itskhoki, @skalemliozcan, @akhandelwal8, Rodriguez-Clare) & "The Future of the Global Economy" (@itskhoki, @paulkrugman, Tesar).

More evidence consistent with results in sciencedirect.com/science/articl…

Using a multi-country New Keynesian model with trade in final goods and intermediate inputs, the authors estimate that a 10 p.p. increase in U.S. bilateral trade costs leads to about a 1 p.p. increase in U.S. inflation. (2/3) federalreserve.gov/econres/ifdp/t… #IFDPPaper

The inflationary effects persist when trade barriers increase the cost of intermediate inputs. Persistent inflation complicates the monetary policy tradeoff. (3/3) federalreserve.gov/econres/ifdp/t… #IFDPPaper

Using global input-output data & a gravity framework, the authors provide empirical evidence that higher import costs, such as tariffs & non-tariff barriers to trade, act like negative supply shocks that increase inflation & lower output. (1/3) federalreserve.gov/econres/ifdp/t… #IFDPPaper

Updated draft of our paper on developing a framework to study sanctions--with @FabioGhironi and @DaisoonKim

Paco Buera presenting his work on Macro-Development, the first plenary session at the Annual Meeting of the Society for Economic Dynamics on the beautiful campus of the University of Copenhagen. @SEDmeeting

🚨 50% steel and aluminum tariff 🚨 u.s. average tariff would increase about 1pp... not a huge deal relative to other actions...but it certainly hits our allies japan, south korea, canada

This is a must-read paper for everyone interested in trade policy. While many were talking about the valuation effects of tariffs, @itskhoki and @MukhinDA put it on paper, and it all makes sense.

Here’s my thread on what we know so far. For notes I have been a competitive sailor and I am licensed to captain ships of any size but I have not sailed tall ships. 🧵

Mexico is about to become the only country to elect every one of its judges by popular vote. This is a terrible idea for justice, democracy and the economy econ.st/437Ttc0

New @DallasFed Global Institute report: A 25% tariff without retaliation can raise U.S. consumption if revenues are rebated. But with coordinated retaliation, gains disappear—leading to higher prices & uneven effects across states. Tariffs carry trade-offs. #Tariffs #TradePolicy

Speech by Governor Waller on central bank research at @BankAlMaghrib: federalreserve.gov/newsevents/spe… Watch live: @BankAlMaghribBKAM/streams" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">youtube.com/@BankAlMaghrib… Learn more about Governor Waller: federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/bi…

🧵How are the 2025 US tariffs affecting consumer prices? Our new paper with @paollamas_ and @VazquezFrancom uses daily retail data linked to country-of-origin info to provide some evidence: 1️⃣ Rapid Pricing Responses: Prices adjusted quickly following major tariff announcements in early 2025—often within days. 2️⃣ Modest Magnitude: Despite the speed, price increases remain small compared to the size of the announced tariff rates. 3️⃣ Domestic Goods Affected: Both imported and domestic goods saw price hikes, suggesting broader effects beyond just tariffed imports. [1/3]