Richard Giragosian

Amid the flurry of disinformation and blatant ignorance in covering this war, the trend of targeting #Qatar and the Gulf states is not only analytically lazy, but also reckless and dangerous, especially given the admirable self-restraint displayed by these countries under attack

Qatar's CEO just gave the most devastating energy interview of 2026. And the White House called it "temporary disruptions." Let that contrast land. 👇 What Saad al-Kaabi told Reuters: -He warned the US Energy Secretary "almost daily" about consequences of striking Iran's facilities -ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips were repeatedly warned -He received "zero prior warning" before Ras Laffan was hit -"The cold boxes are gone… completely destroyed" -10,000 people evacuated in 24 hours , zero casualties -"This has taken the whole region back 10-20 years" -"How I feel is difficult to describe" The actual damage scorecard: 2 of 14 LNG trains , offline 3-5 years ❌ 1 of 2 GTL facilities , 1 year repair ❌ 17% of Qatar's total LNG capacity ,gone ❌ $26 billion in damaged facilities ❌ $20 billion annual revenue loss ❌ North Field expansion (77→126mtpa by 2027) ,halted ❌ Force majeure declared on long-term contracts to: 🇮🇹 Italy 🇧🇪 Belgium 🇰🇷 South Korea 🇨🇳 China For up to 5 years. Additional collateral damage: -Condensates: -24% -LPG: -13% -Helium: -14% -Naphtha: -6% The White House response? "Highly anticipated, temporary disruptions." The only supplier with capacity to absorb this at scale? 🇺🇸 United States. Qatar's CEO spent 40 years building one of the world's greatest energy companies. In 48 hours it lost a generation of output ♟️🛢️ I break down what this means for markets 3x per week. 📩 Subscribe now, I just published a new article. Link in bio.

The Gulf must not be left holding the bag for this war thenationalnews.com/opinion/commen…

#Iran War Update No. 21 (focus on Iranian strategic narrative): 🔹 Iran continues targeting U.S. bases in the region. The aim appears to be to prevent the restoration of radar and early warning systems that support Israel’s air defense, many of which were damaged by Iran in the first few days of the war. This suggests a sustained effort by Iran to preserve its ability to strike Israeli territory more effectively. 🔹 Iraq is becoming more volatile. According to Iranian sources, recent assassinations of key militia figures, reported failed attempts to target Kataib Hezbollah leadership, and strikes in Baghdad and al-Qaim indicate a shift toward reshaping the Iraqi political and military landscape, even as the war with Iran itself continues. 🔹 Signs of temporary de-escalation in Iraq are being met with skepticism. Kataib Hezbollah announced a five-day pause in attacks on the U.S. embassy, conditional on halting strikes and limiting intelligence activity. However, this pause appears fragile and reversible. 🔹 Iranian assessments suggest Israel is pushing to expand the war into Iraq more deliberately, viewing pressure on Shia armed groups as a more effective way to weaken Iran’s regional position. At the same time, there is apparent dissatisfaction that larger Iraqi Shia factions are still unwilling to join the conflict. 🔹 Meanwhile, NATO personnel have been withdrawn from Iraq, reflecting growing concern that the country could become a major secondary theater of the war. 🔹 U.S. and Israeli strikes are increasingly targeting internal security infrastructure inside Iran. Satellite imagery shows severe damage to a key logistical headquarters of the Iranian police in Tehran. This is seen as further evidence that Israel is focused on undermining the state’s capacity to maintain internal control. 🔹 Iran is signaling new red lines in the Persian Gulf. The Iranian armed forces have warned that any attack on Iranian islands would trigger direct strikes on UAE territory – not just U.S. interests there. This could include ports and potentially major cities. 🔹 At the same time, the Iranian armed forces have issued evacuation warnings for Ras al-Khaimah, suggesting that further escalation with Gulf countries may be imminent. 🔹 There are also growing indications that some Gulf states may be moving closer to involvement in the war. A Middle East Eye report suggests expanded U.S. access to bases in Saudi Arabia and increased UAE readiness for a prolonged conflict. 🔹 U.S. military activity continues to intensify, combining sustained heavy bomber strikes – particularly against southern coastal and naval-linked targets – with a growing amphibious buildup. Thousands of Marines from expeditionary units aboard ships like the USS Boxer are being deployed to the region, adding to an already large force presence and creating a variety of options ranging from offshore strikes to potential limited ground operations. 🔹 Iran’s missile and launch strategy continues to adapt. Iranian debates indicate the use of mobile, tunnel-based launch systems that allow rapid firing and relocation, making detection and preemption significantly more difficult. 🔹 Cluster munitions are now a major feature of Iranian strikes on Israel, aimed at overwhelming air defenses rather than maximizing precision damage. 🔹 Iran struck Israeli energy infrastructure the day before, including the Haifa refinery, while continuing its broader strategy of sustained, lower-volume missile launches to maintain constant pressure on the Israeli public. 🔹 Syria is emerging as a potential variable. While the Syrian president signals neutrality, Iranian and Hezbollah concerns are growing that Syria could come under pressure to act against Hezbollah from the east. 🔹 China’s stance is becoming more explicitly aligned with Iran at the political level. Beijing has condemned U.S. and Israeli strikes as illegal, affirmed support for Iran’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and reiterated opposition to sanctions. While still calling for de-escalation and avoiding any direct military role, its framing of the conflict increasingly places responsibility on Washington and Tel Aviv, signaling a clear – if still cautious – tilt toward Iran. 🔹 Global economic consequences are deepening. Oil supply disruptions, cuts of roughly 10 million barrels per day, and projections of prices potentially reaching $180 per barrel in a month underscore the scale of the shock. 🔹 The conflict is beginning to affect global supply chains, with disruptions already emerging in sectors such as aluminum, reflecting how instability in the Gulf is feeding into broader industrial and commodity markets. 🔹 Ukraine is becoming increasingly entangled in the conflict. Ukrainian drone interception units are now reportedly deployed in multiple Middle Eastern countries to counter Iranian systems. At the same time, reports of a possible Russia-U.S. quid pro quo – linking Moscow’s support for Iran to Western backing for Ukraine – though denied by Moscow, highlight how the two wars are becoming politically and strategically interconnected. 🔹 Inside Iran, leadership signaling remains defiant but cautious. Mojtaba Khamenei’s written Nowruz message – rather than a public appearance – has reinforced uncertainty about his condition. However, the message emphasized resilience and national unity. 🔹 At the same time, mistrust toward any ceasefire is deepening. Iranian assessments increasingly view potential short-term pauses as tactical moves by the U.S. and Israel to regroup for further escalation, especially one involving the deployment of ground forces. 🔹 Overall, what is taking shape is a multi-layered and diverse battlespace. Rather than a single escalatory ladder, different arenas – Iraq, the Persian Gulf, Ukraine, and potentially Syria – are evolving at different speeds and according to different logics, with local actors, infrastructure vulnerabilities, and alliance calculations increasingly driving events as much as decisions in Tehran, Washington, or Tel Aviv.

Iconic moments in Trump diplomacy You think he won’t really go there but then he does

Asked why he didn't coordinate with allies before going to war with Iran, Trump says, "We didn't tell anyone about it. Who knows better about surprise than Japan? Why didn't you tell me about Pearl Harbor, OK?"

Reporter: Why didn't you notify Japan that you were going to attack Iran? Trump next to the Japanese PM: "Who knows better about surprise than Japan? Why didn't you tell me about Pearl Habour? You believe in surprise I think much more so than us."

Hassett: "If the war were to be extended, it wouldn't really disrupt the US economy very much at all. It would hurt consumers, and we'd have to think about what we'd have to do about that, but that's really the last of our concerns right now."

Peter Thiel giving Antichrist lectures in Rome is peak irony. A Tech billionaire oligarch warning us about the dystopia he's actively building in the city that perfected empire is almost a little too on-brand for 2026.

BREAKING: Trump’s ICE goons arrested a wheelchair-bound decorated war hero who was just ONE interview away from becoming a U.S. citizen and threw him in jail for FOUR MONTHS! Zahid Chaudhry won seven medals and lost his legs serving our country in Iraq – but that didn’t stop ICE from arresting him and throwing him in the gulag for months. He’s the husband of a Democratic congressional candidate, which might be a hint as to why they’ve gone after him. Melissa Chaudry is currently running for Washington 9th Congressional district. “Shocking, surprising, painful,” Chaudhry said to the media about his imprisonment. “It’s a sacred understanding between the country and its veteran.” “I’m qualified for expedited military naturalization,” Chaudhry said. “My kids are here; American citizens. My wife is an American citizen. Her father was a U.S. Navy commander. How could this be happening to me?” After 18 weeks in jail, a judge finally ordered him released and ruled that he had been wrongfully detained. Chaudhry is still trying to get his citizenship. For all their talk about how much they looooove the troops, the Trump administration sure is ungrateful for their service. Beyond despicable.

White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett just revealed the cost of Trump’s Iran war. $12 billion spent so far. The reporter asked: “For six weeks?” Hassett: “No — that’s what’s been spent already.” $12 billion. In two weeks. The same administration that: — Sent DOGE to cancel $100 million in humanities grants with ChatGPT — Cut programs that may have led to people dying to reduce the deficit — Failed to reduce the deficit at all Just spent $12 billion in two weeks on a war launched on “a feeling.” With no exit strategy. With a rejected peace deal. With six Americans dead in a KC-135. With Major Klinner’s twins at home without their father. With the Baghdad embassy evacuated. With the Strait closed to American ships. $12 billion.

ROME (Reuters) - Peter Thiel, the U.S. billionaire venture capitalist and early supporter of President Donald Trump, launched on Sunday a series of closed-door lectures in Rome exploring the concept of the Antichrist, drawing scrutiny from Catholic commentators, @crispiandjb reports. The invitation-only conference, which runs until Wednesday, is not open to the press and its venue has not been publicly disclosed. Organisers quoted in the media say participants are drawn from academia, technology and religious circles. A co-founder of Palantir Technologies, an AI software company with deep ties to the U.S. defense and intelligence agencies, Thiel has in recent years devoted increasing attention to religious and philosophical ideas. Last year he held a similar series of talks in San Francisco exploring the possibility that the Antichrist - a figure who opposes or denies Christ - could emerge on the global stage. In particular, Thiel has said he is wary that an Antichrist will emerge who will create a one-world government on the promise of something like stopping nuclear, AI or climate-induced disaster. Thiel, 58, grew up in an Evangelical Christian family and has said Christianity shapes his worldview. His visit has caught the attention of the Roman Catholic Church, which, under Pope Leo, the first U.S. pontiff, has openly criticised some of Trump's right-wing policies. Leo has also warned of the dangers posed by AI. Catholic universities in Rome denied press speculation that they might be hosting the event and no meeting is scheduled between Thiel and Leo, according to the pope's official agenda.

Why is Trump’s DOJ fighting to release Alex Smirnov from jail? Smirnov, who has significant ties to Russian intelligence, fed the FBI bogus claims about Joe Biden getting a $10 million bribe from a Ukrainian oligarch—a lie that fueled Republicans’ failed efforts to impeach Biden. Smirnov pled guilty to lying to the FBI and committing tax evasion and received a 6 year sentence. A year later, Trump’s DOJ wants him set free. Why? Russia, Russia, Russia indeed.

So every "secret" meeting Witkoff has held with Saudis, Putin and more has been listened to by Israeli intelligence. Brilliant!

This moment from February 2025 may go down as one of the most prescient exchanges in modern diplomatic history. Zelenskyy warned Trump that while the United States may feel protected by an ocean today, a time could come when America would need help in war. Trump scolded him instead. Perhaps he should have listened. Zelenskyy: First of all, during the war, everybody has problems, even you. But you have nice ocean and don't feel now. But you will feel it in the future. God bless – Trump: You don't know that. You don't know that. Don't tell us what we're going to feel. We're trying to solve a problem. Don't tell us what we're going to feel. Zelenskyy: I'm not telling you. I am answering on these questions. Trump: Because you're in no position to dictate that. Vance: That's exactly what you're doing. Trump: You are in no position to dictate what we're going to feel. We're going to feel very good.

Former Qatar PM calls on Gulf states to unite and “establish an effective, real, and on-the-ground military security alliance, akin to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, in which Saudi Arabia plays the most crucial role as the largest state.”

So a twenty-something with no experience and no real expertise gets to cancel research grants approved by senior military officials with decades in the field — simply by deciding, through his personal white supremacy lens, that the work shouldn’t exist. No books. No expertise. Just ideology overriding experience.

If there is one, and only one unifying thread in the Trump Administration, it's not ideology, nor even politics. Yes, it is in part arrogance and incompetence, but it is really about GREED nytimes.com/2026/03/13/bus…

Remembering Gen. Anthony Zinni’s 2009 warning about a war with Iran: “If you follow this all the way down, eventually I'm putting boots on the ground somewhere. And like I tell my friends, if you like Iraq and Afghanistan, you'll love Iran.”

The Strait is effectively closed, ships are on fire, oil is near $100/bl, Russia is reaping windfalls, the SPR is half-empty and we seem to have no solution for either drones or mines. So to say administration "knew this was Iran's plan" not a defense but an indictment.