E. Rigby

@HatedMoats @herb_c22177 @ResearchPulse1 You know it’s @ResearchPulse1’s chart. You’ve interacted with him regarding the TRx data, and if you follow $NVO, you know it’s his. Show a little respect for his name—he keeps us all updated.

Surely does deserve it, no doubt about that. I'd tag the user if I knew the table is done by him. All I'm saying is every single person online can create a 4 rows excel table with publicly available data within 3 minutes, so let's not consider it his biggest contribution or pretend it's some sort of IP... I'm completely fine with plugging in the very same data in my Google sheets next week and it'll be "my chart", so everyone's happy. :)

🚨 Wegovy Pill: Week 11 TRx = 76,829 Up 6.7% week over week. Bear in mind these are completely new patients. This cannot be framed differently than objectively great. And it shows! $NVO is down -1.5% pre-market. 🙃 Make it make sense...

@ResearchPulse1 Which is your largest position?

This is also a good example for the investment world. (See the video at the end of the post) If you have a company that you’re very very glad to have in your portfolio. It’s the first company you mention every time someone asks you for interesting companies to invest in. If you’re not able to make convincing counter arguments. What could make it higher risk bc xxxx. If this happens then yyyyy. And a competitor. They do have some challenges with….. If you’re not able to do that, then you either on purpose have blind spots. Maybe driven partly by emotional. Or you simply haven’t fully understood the company and what market it operates in whether competitors, regulatory framework In either case the first thing to do is acknowledge to yourself, you don’t have the full overview of the company and/or the environment it works within. That there are areas that likely looks less solid/favourable for the company. To what extent is the company working to improve xxxx or de-risk yyyy if What investment are the ones you like the most and/or are big positions in your portfolio. And can you make a counter argument I’ll start. My 2nd largest position is $NVO Counter arguments They have lost 2-4 years headstart by not investing enough in their supply chain. Semaglutide patent leaps in some countries here in 2026. How will this affect the company. Are there further downside or have management it under control? What about Canada 🤔 2026 will be a tough year. They have guided for a rather big negative revenue impact. Why have they done that, and could that have spillover effects into 2027? Then what. What about the illegal mass compounding of semaglutide. Regulators/authorities. Those companies that steal their revenue. Bad vs good actors. Can they transits fast enough to a new reality where we talk consumers and not just patients They are currently in a massive +$15B buildout of new huge and very complex factories. And there’s a heavy push on the organisation to get some of these factories up and running as of tomorrow. The risk for delays and budget overruns. Could that have other consequences? They have underspent massively in R&D making their pipeline to small. Both in later stage and new molecules. They are currently scaling significantly up with supposedly many new molecules on its way. But they also need to be active in M&A. An area NVO does not have that much experience in. Can they find the missing molecules that other biotechs have in their pipeline? Can they close deals without overpaying? But with many years underspending in RD, you don’t reverse that in just 12 months. They just had a huge re-org where they also layoff 9,000. It takes times to connect all the right dots again. There’s always some employees left who are even more frustrated. Can they Heal their wounds or will further highly skilled employees walk away? These are some of my counter arguments. You could also call it bear argument. I can address most of them. But it’s still operational and market risks. Can you make counter arguments for those companies you mention most in here? $LLY $VKTX $TSLA $HIMS $NVDA

@MrAndr10 Insulinproduktion i Iran…

Fyller på i $NOVO idag. Borde ju vara en rätt säker hamn trots rådande världsläge? Ingen produktion i mellanöstern what so ever.. #finanstwitter #fintwit #novo #novonordisk #stocks

People who bet on prediction markets and sports betting generally do so because they believe they have an edge—they think they can outsmart the market. Casino gamblers know the odds are stacked against them but play for other reasons, such as thrill, hope, or dopamine. The two groups don't generally overlap.

@AretardInvestor Football and tennis are not the same, they are forms of sport. Same as the comparison I made. Show me where I said people who play live casino are going to stop because of prediction markets. Point of the original post has went over your head.

$HOOD might well be the biggest threat to $EVO in the US

Given the prices you entered at, and the expectations you must have had to enter at those prices, I understand your frustration. However, given the current price and expectations, they are doing just fine. They had to make tough decisions over the past year regarding Asia and Europe, and they acted quite clearly and decisively. I would say that is operational excellence. Were they the right decisions? They might have been, but only time will tell—and probably not even then.

@TheREALMADriD94 "Under the glorious operational leadership of Mr. Always Paranoid, we have ultra efficiently built mega factories to produce our best-in-class fax machines."

"Looking at 2025 as a whole from an operational perspective, it might have been one of our strongest years ever" $EVO

@TBstockinvestor I am not worried. $EVO is still increasing market share in Game Shows while competition is harder in the classic table games. Most likely the market will grow in the coming years and the market leader is greatly positioned. The product is still the best in the market.

@RigbyValue thank you for the source! The evolution tracker also gives average players for the quater. Those show an increase. It does look like yours takes in account more games so it might be more precise.

Evolution's $evo q4 numbers could be good. It looks like they got an average of 55-60.000 players for the quarter. My early revenue projections are: live games shows 460-480 mil RNG 75-80 mil

@TBstockinvestor Sorry, missed your reply. It is Livecasino.watch

@RigbyValue I don't want to nag you but what is your source that says q4 is down vs q3?

@TBstockinvestor Livecasino.watch—evodata.vercel.app starts the tracking from the peak lows in late Q3/ early Q4

@RigbyValue The data i am looking at shows an increase in players. Where are you looking?

To people upset with $UNH revenue guidance: $UNH has clearly grown into a much less profitable portfolio than usual—that’s the whole reason we are in a turnaround situation. How can you expect the company to retain (and even increase) the current book while trying to recover margins? Clearly, the unprofitable segments of past growth must be exited. You can’t just increase premiums and hope everything works out in insurance—you’ll end up risking adverse selection.

Does anyone know why player numbers have shifted from Crazy Time to Big Baller? Is it organic, or due to Crazy Time being disabled for multiple operators? In Sweden, Crazy Time has always been difficult to find with operators, while Big Baller is always available. Has Evolution made any changes? $EVO $EVVTY $EVO.ST

@TheREALMADriD94 Thanks, I think it looks great. Love the new look of the wheel!

@TheREALMADriD94 Do you have a demo video of Game Night or Monopoly Filthy Rich?

$EVO This is my feeling every year at ICE. Company insiders, who have deep knowledge and experience in how regulation works, are completely chilled, while those betting on it in the prediction market called Wall Street are thinking in absolutes.

@Snaljapen Hann du spana något på Game Night och Monopoly Filthy Rich hos $EVO? Vad tyckte du i så fall?

Ryktet om igamings död är kraftigt överdriven. ICE har aldrig varit större, besökarna har aldrig varit fler och båsen har aldrig varit dyrare. Det pratas om över 60000 besökare i år.

@LNathell Goda tankar – tack!

Har funderat på Paretos senaste analys av $EVO, specifikt Nordamerika. De ser en avmattning i GGR-tillväxt (naturligt, 1 dag mindre) men frågan är om de har rensat för one offs? November var en extrem månad för jackpottar hos Draftkings som sänkte marknadens GGR markant. 🧵

@TacticzH I love how a price target that confirms one’s views on X is always praised, while one that denies one’s view is labelled as biased or uninformed. Can we not just all agree that an analyst at least needs a good track record for their opinion to be valuable at all?

This is how I feel about analysts giving price targets

Jag ser inte prediction markets som det största hotet mot Evolution, om jag ska vara ärlig. Missförstå mig inte – de konkurrerar såklart – men det gör allt som tar uppmärksamhet, till och med Netflix. Jag tror prediction markets konkurrerar mest med spekulation på finansmarknaden och med betting. Kundsegmenten överlappar inte helt mellan prediction markets och casino. De som dras mest till prediction markets är personer som tror sig kunna överlista marknaden. De flesta som spelar casino vet att de har negativ EV, medan många som spelar på andra marknader tror sig ha positiv EV – oavsett om de har det eller inte.

@RigbyValue @SorobanCount tack för svar samt länkningen vidare till inlägg kring Moat, bra skrivet och informativt! Jag tänker kring lockelsen hos unga för prediction markets och mindre kring traditionell kasino. Evolution erbjuder underhållningsvärde och kan fortsätta växa om de utvecklar roliga spel

Uppföljning: Evo: Crazy Time 19 000 Big Baller 7 000 Funky Time 8 000 Grand Total: 34 000 Pragmatic: Mega Wheel 5 000 Sweet Bonanza 5 000 Money Time 2 000 Grand Total: 12 000 x.com/SorobanCount/s…

@TheLAPurchaser No, just a small minority. That’s why it’s affecting top-line growth and not taking half the market. I didn’t mean to say no one would do it—just as a counter to you saying everyone would take the compounded version and the case is basically gone.

@RigbyValue Isn’t this what everyone is doing with injectable sema?

Not sure how $NVO ‘s stock works if compounders are undercutting oral sema price by 70% ($40 v $150)

Spännande take – skulle absolut kunna fallet. Är ju svårt att mer än bara spekulera, men absolut intressant! Tror också Pragmatics aggressiva prissättning kan bidra till deras ökning på traditionella borden. Det är svårt att promota Pragmatics game show över $EVO, folk kommer hitta Crazy Time och välja det ändå. När det gäller vanliga bord är nog inte preferensen lika hög, utan det är vanligare att man bara tar det som är högst upp hos operatören. Lägre minimiinsatser påverkar såklart också.